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April 25, 2022

Day 31, Phase 2

St. Michael’s Monastery. Photo c/o Stephanie Byrne (April 24, 2022).

Phase 3 (May 9) starts in 15 days. Each successive phase is longer than the previous one, with each new day of the war making possible what was impossible yesterday. That translates to more unspeakable tragedy, despair and death. So, keep sending night vision gear, espectially ATN contraptions.

Map c/o @jomini

Tactical military maps and analysis of the mess abound, which make the situation even more depressing. Russia’s idiotic rationale for the invasion (denazification, demilitarization of Ukraine) combined with its unrealistic military objectives make it likely Phase 4 will not start until the autumn.

German map of Ukrainian mud fields ..

The New York Times on Sunday recapitulates three decades of confused relations between the United States and Ukraine. The article left out wacko reporting by the Moscow-centric newspaper, which for at least the past two decades has more often than not gotten its stories wrong about Ukraine.

The war carries both for Russia and Ukraine the threat of a fatal geopolitical catastrophe. Betting on an uncompromising victory is like playing with fire in an already burning casino. So, it would be nice if Germany, France and Italy got their collective act together quickly and started helping more faster.

Spare us the rhetoric, just send guns.

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