MSFT +15.5% (9.4σ) | HH $2.76 | 8 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Aug 05 - 09 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Aug 07 - 13 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 81 total (11, 11, 12, 11, 11, 12, 13)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.76 (+1.2%, 0.6σ)
↳ Henry Hub front-month gained 1.2% as mild weather and global price weakness pressured demand, though the move remains modest as the market consolidates near $3.00 resistance.
Front/second (U26/V26): -0.041 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.144 (H 2.989 / J 2.845)
Storage 3084 Bcf (+28 w/w, +173 vs 5-yr, -39 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-05): 121.8 Bcf/d, +3.8% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)
Power
ERCOT North DA $34.49 (prev $33.23) - heat rate 12.5 (prev 12.2) - spark $13.80 (prev $12.79)
PJM West DA $43.75 (prev $44.74) - heat rate 15.9 (prev 16.4) - spark $23.07 (prev $24.30)
CAISO SP15 DA $44.33 (prev $52.27) - heat rate 16.1 (prev 19.2) - spark $23.65 (prev $31.84)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €58.18/MWh (~$19.62/MMBtu) -3.7%
JKM $21.38/MMBtu -0.3%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $18.62/MMBtu; TTF−HH $16.86
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $83.59 (-1.0%, 0.3σ)
Brent $89.03 (-1.9%, 0.4σ)
Energy equities
Microsoft capex signal (capex)
Microsoft's $15 billion capex reduction is an accounting reclassification rather than a true spending cut, with Azure surpassing $100 billion in revenue at four-year growth highs.
- Microsoft blinked a little in the AI capex race. Wall Street loved it. - Business Insider
- Microsoft's $15 Billion Capex "Cut" Is an Accounting Move. What It Signals Matters More Than Azure's $100 Billion - Business Model Analyst
- Super Micro Computer Q4 Results: Stock surges 8% on Microsoft AI capex - scanx.trade
Amazon capex signal (capex)
Amazon hiked 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion amid surging AWS revenue growth of 36.7% and AI run rate exceeding $25 billion, offsetting margin concerns.
- Why Amazon (AMZN) Stock Is Jumping 12% Despite a Massive AI Capex Hike - Barron's
- Amazon Earnings: AWS Revenue Surges, Driving Margins Higher, While Capex Is Contained - Morningstar
- [AMZN Q2 2026 Earnings Call] AWS Revenue Rockets 36.7% to $42.2B as AI Run Rate Tops $25B; Amazon Hikes 2026 CapEx to $220B - finance.biggo.com
NRG $133.97 (+7.8%, 2.7σ)
↳ NRG Energy surged 7.8% as institutional investors accumulated positions ahead of earnings, betting on data-center power demand tailwinds.
AR $35.30 (+0.5%, 0.2σ)
↳ Antero Resources rose modestly despite analyst price target increases and positive operational news, including its first dry gas pad in 12 years and Antero Midstream's data-center focused infrastructure expansion.
LNG $258.06 (-0.2%, 0.1σ)
↳ Cheniere Energy declined slightly as Q3 EPS estimates were lowered by analysts and stakeholder positions were reduced, overshadowing the Train 7 approval update.
Quiet: VST +4.1% · TLN +5.2% · NVDA +2.6% · CEG +2.2% · WMB +1.1% · KMI -0.6% · RRC -0.9% · DVN -0.7% · EQT +0.3%
Friday recall
Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.
- Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
- What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
- Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
- What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?
- HH: Mon 2.77 Tue 2.66 Wed 2.72 Thu 2.76
- H/J: +0.144
- SP15: Mon 50.99 Tue 51.47 Wed 52.27 Thu 44.33
- Storage: +28 Bcf to 3084 (+173 vs 5-yr)