META -7.0% (2.8σ) | HH $2.80 | 11 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Oct 28 - Nov 01, 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 30 - Nov 05, 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 63 total (9, 9, 9, 8, 9, 10, 9)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 7 total (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.80 (+0.2%, 0.1σ)
↳ EIA reported a smaller-than-expected storage increase, supporting prices near steady levels as natural gas demand dynamics remain balanced.
Front/second (X26/Z26): -0.360 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.065 (H 2.527 / J 2.462)
Storage 3644 Bcf (+77 w/w, -1 vs 5-yr, -154 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-07): 125.2 Bcf/d, +5.2% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)
Power
ERCOT North DA $35.73 (prev $36.25) - heat rate 12.8 (prev 13.0) - spark $14.76 (prev $15.33)
PJM West DA $59.66 (prev $67.38) - heat rate 21.3 (prev 24.2) - spark $38.69 (prev $46.45)
CAISO SP15 DA $45.60 (prev $52.70) - heat rate 16.3 (prev 18.9) - spark $24.63 (prev $31.77)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €90.04/MWh (~$29.55/MMBtu) +3.0%
JKM $30.62/MMBtu +1.9%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $27.83/MMBtu; TTF−HH $26.75
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $99.47 (+2.4%, 1.0σ)
Brent $113.17 (+4.0%, 2.2σ)
Energy equities
KMI $33.72 (-0.7%, 0.5σ)
Kinder Morgan delivered record Q3 profits and posted a significant earnings beat, driven by strong U.S. natural gas volumes. The company announced a $4.7 billion pipeline investment program, with an additional $5.4 billion committed to infrastructure supporting AI-driven power demand growth. These capital commitments represent the company's largest expansion bet in years. The transmission mechanism works through two channels: near-term earnings support from elevated natural gas utilization across existing infrastructure, and longer-term cash flow visibility from the contracted backlog these new projects will generate. Large capital spending typically underpins stable dividend growth for MLPs, justifying the 3.5% yield. Watch whether KMI's guidance on backlog-to-revenue conversion timelines holds—particularly for AI power corridor projects. Execution risk on these ambitious capex plans could affect both earnings accretion and dividend sustainability if delays materialize.
- Kinder Morgan's $4.7 Billion Pipeline Bet Could Be Bigger Than Its Earnings Beat - MarketBeat
- This 3.5%-Yielding Dividend Stock is Betting Another $5.4 Billion to Help Fuel the AI Power Revolution - AOL.com
- Kinder Morgan Gets Q3 Lift from U.S. Natural Gas - Industrial Info
NVDA $212.21 (-4.4%, 2.8σ)
↳ Nvidia faces a projected 45% shortfall in planned 2027 data center capacity, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet accelerating AI infrastructure demand.
VST $140.83 (-9.8%, 2.6σ)
↳ Vistra shares fell sharply following an analyst downgrade amid shifting energy sector themes, though specific fundamental drivers are not detailed in available headlines.
WMB $70.63 (-3.0%, 1.5σ)
↳ Williams Companies' gas pipeline assets are drawing investor attention as strengthening demand for pipeline capacity supports the midstream operator's positioning.
RRC $43.86 (+2.1%, 1.1σ)
↳ Raymond James raised Range Resources' price target citing NGL (natural gas liquids) strength, reflecting improved margins in the liquids-rich portfolio.
Quiet: TLN -7.8% · NRG -5.4% · CEG -5.7% · DVN -1.4% · AR +1.4% · LNG +1.0% · EQT +1.1%
Friday recall
Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.
- Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
- What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
- Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
- What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?
- HH: Mon 3.06 Tue 2.96 Wed 2.79 Thu 2.80
- H/J: +0.065
- SP15: Mon 43.29 Tue 44.34 Wed 52.70 Thu 45.60
- Storage: +77 Bcf to 3644 (-1 vs 5-yr)