LNG +4.3% (2.2σ) | HH $2.64 | 7 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Aug 12 - 16 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Aug 14 - 20 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 95 total (13, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 12)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.64 (-1.8%, 0.8σ)
Front/second (U26/V26): -0.048 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.112 (H 2.888 / J 2.776)
Storage 3117 Bcf (+33 w/w, +176 vs 5-yr, -13 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-05): 121.8 Bcf/d, +3.8% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)
Power
ERCOT North DA $24.94 (prev $26.57) - heat rate 9.4 (prev 9.9) - spark $5.14 (prev $6.41)
PJM West DA $112.21 (prev $75.46) - heat rate 42.5 (prev 28.1) - spark $92.41 (prev $55.30)
CAISO SP15 DA $45.40 (prev $47.95) - heat rate 17.2 (prev 17.8) - spark $25.60 (prev $27.79)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €55.77/MWh (~$18.90/MMBtu) +6.4% (+6.4%, 1.7σ)
JKM $21.14/MMBtu +1.1%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $18.50/MMBtu; TTF−HH $16.26
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $77.29 (+2.8%, 0.6σ)
Brent $82.49 (+3.8%, 0.8σ)
Energy equities
LNG $265.77 (+4.3%, 2.2σ)
Cheniere Energy reported $3 billion in Q2 profit driven by strong LNG margins and export volumes, then raised full-year guidance. The company's operational strength reflects elevated global liquefied natural gas demand and favorable pricing spreads between production costs and market rates. This earnings beat and guidance lift directly supported the stock's 4.3% surge today, as investors repriced Cheniere's cash generation potential upward. The transmission to price operates through improved earnings visibility: higher guidance signals sustained profitability even if current LNG spot prices moderate. Stronger fundamentals reduce downside risk that had previously capped the valuation multiple. Watch the next quarterly production volumes and realized margins closely. If Cheniere sustains these spreads while maintaining export capacity utilization, the stock could hold gains; any margin compression or volume softness would challenge the new guidance assumptions.
- LNG margins and volumes spur Cheniere to $3bn Q2 profit - gasworld
- US Stocks Slip as Oil Rises and Earnings Roll In - Impakter
- Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Stock forecasts - Yahoo Finance Singapore
CEG $261.10 (-1.5%, 0.7σ)
Microsoft capex signal (capex)
VST $141.38 (+0.6%, 0.2σ)
NVDA $218.99 (-0.1%, 0.0σ)
Quiet: DVN +2.4% · TLN +2.6% · AR +1.7% · RRC +1.1% · KMI +0.5% · EQT +0.7% · NRG -1.4% · WMB -0.1%
Friday recall
Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.
- Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
- What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
- Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
- What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?
- HH: Mon 2.78 Tue 2.68 Wed 2.69 Thu 2.64
- H/J: +0.112
- SP15: Mon 41.45 Tue 46.65 Wed 47.95 Thu 45.40
- Storage: +33 Bcf to 3117 (+176 vs 5-yr)