HH $3.30 +9.1% (4.6σ) | 9 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Sep 30 - Oct 04, 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Oct 02 - 08 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 20 total (4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 32 total (4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $3.30 (+9.1%, 4.6σ)
Henry Hub front-month surged 9.1% to $3.30, a rare 4.6 standard-deviation move, driven by the TCO pipeline leak stranding 1.8 Bcf/d of supply. Despite record summer heat, Henry Hub prices ran 6% lower year-over-year, reflecting abundant supply and flush reserves that have pressured the market. The supply disruption created immediate scarcity in the immediate prompt, forcing cash buyers to pay significantly higher prices to secure gas when a major transmission artery went offline. Watch whether TCO restores full capacity quickly—if repairs extend beyond a few days, sustained tightness could push front-month even higher, but any restart would likely reverse the rally given the underlying oversupply fundamentals that kept summer pricing depressed despite extreme weather.
- Henry Hub Summer 2026 Natural Gas Price Falls 6% Despite Record Heat - News and Statistics - IndexBox
- Henry Hub natural gas prices this summer were 6% lower than last summer - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov)
- Abundant Supply, Flush Reserves Weighing on Natural Gas Price Forecasts - Natural Gas Intelligence
Front/second (V26/X26): -0.073 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.141 (H 2.917 / J 2.776)
Storage 3351 Bcf (+53 w/w, +51 vs 5-yr, -148 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)
Power
ERCOT North DA $40.41 (prev $43.55) - heat rate 12.3 (prev 14.4) - spark $15.69 (prev $20.87)
PJM West DA $41.45 (prev $44.23) - heat rate 12.6 (prev 14.6) - spark $16.72 (prev $21.56)
CAISO SP15 DA $39.54 (prev $35.99) - heat rate 12.0 (prev 11.9) - spark $14.81 (prev $13.32)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €75.11/MWh (~$25.08/MMBtu) +4.3%
JKM $26.38/MMBtu +2.5%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $23.08/MMBtu; TTF−HH $21.78
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $94.61 (+2.7%, 0.9σ)
Brent $106.60 (+3.4%, 1.3σ)
Energy equities
DVN $48.90 (+1.8%, 0.9σ)
LNG $276.28 (+1.0%, 0.5σ)
KMI $31.25 (-0.4%, 0.3σ)
NVDA $224.58 (-0.4%, 0.1σ)
Amazon capex signal (capex)
Quiet: NRG -2.8% · EQT +1.6% · AR +1.2% · RRC +1.0% · WMB -0.7% · CEG -0.9% · TLN -0.1% · VST -0.0%
Friday recall
Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.
- Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
- What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
- Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
- What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?
- HH: Mon 2.84 Tue 2.96 Wed 3.02 Thu 3.30
- H/J: +0.141
- SP15: Mon 39.19 Tue 31.30 Wed 35.99 Thu 39.54
- Storage: +53 Bcf to 3351 (+51 vs 5-yr)