HH $2.77 -1.0% (0.4σ) | 9 others
Weather
6-10 Day Outlook For Aug 17 - 21 2026 map
8-14 Day Outlook For Aug 19 - 25 2026 map
Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 82 total (14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 11, 11)
HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)
Natural gas
Henry Hub front month $2.77 (-1.0%, 0.4σ)
U.S. natural gas production is tracking toward record levels in 2026 according to EIA data, adding structural supply pressure to the market. Simultaneously, natural gas continues exhibiting seasonal demand patterns typical of this period, which constrains pricing upside. The European market has decoupled sharply, with prices near $720, reflecting tighter regional supply dynamics and geopolitical factors absent from North American fundamentals. The transmission mechanism is straightforward: rising domestic production supply meets predictable seasonal demand weakness, pushing Henry Hub lower despite European strength. Front-month weakness at $2.77 reflects this domestic oversupply dynamic weighing on U.S. pricing despite international price divergence. Watch the $2.81 level identified in price forecasts—a breakout above this resistance would signal seasonal demand is offsetting supply growth faster than currently priced, potentially reversing the downside bias.
- United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026 - eia.gov
- Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Show Seasonal Effect - FXEmpire
- Natural gas price in Europe approaches $720 - Apa.az
Front/second (U26/V26): -0.063 - contango
Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.137 (H 2.976 / J 2.839)
Storage 3117 Bcf (+33 w/w, +176 vs 5-yr, -13 vs yr-ago)
Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-05): 121.8 Bcf/d, +3.8% y/y
Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)
LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)
Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)
Power
ERCOT North DA $25.91 (prev $28.20) - heat rate 9.4 (prev 10.1) - spark $5.15 (prev $7.24)
PJM West DA $50.81 (prev $61.86) - heat rate 18.4 (prev 22.1) - spark $30.06 (prev $40.90)
CAISO SP15 DA $48.58 (prev $45.56) - heat rate 17.6 (prev 16.3) - spark $27.82 (prev $24.61)
Global gas & carbon
TTF €58.74/MWh (~$19.89/MMBtu) -3.4% (-3.4%, 0.8σ)
JKM $21.18/MMBtu -0.4%
Cargo arb JKM−HH: $18.42/MMBtu; TTF−HH $17.12
CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)
Crude
WTI $83.20 (+1.3%, 0.3σ)
Brent $88.91 (+1.4%, 0.3σ)
Energy equities
CEG $278.36 (+2.9%, 1.3σ)
TLN $357.88 (+4.3%, 1.2σ)
KMI $31.48 (+0.3%, 0.2σ)
EQT $54.37 (+0.5%, 0.2σ)
LNG $265.43 (-0.1%, 0.0σ)
Quiet: AR +2.1% · RRC +0.9% · VST +1.4% · WMB +0.6% · NRG +0.7% · DVN +0.1% · NVDA -0.0%