Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Sep 16 - 20 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Sep 18 - 24 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 6 total (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 65 total (10, 10, 10, 9, 9, 9, 8)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.83 (+0.4%, 0.2σ)

↳ Seasonal weakness typical of summer's decline is weighing on Henry Hub futures, with modest upside pressure from storage builds in the Midwest and East offset by approaching El Niño conditions that could reduce winter demand.

Front/second (V26/X26): -0.144 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.127 (H 2.885 / J 2.758)

Storage 3254 Bcf (+40 w/w, +114 vs 5-yr, -79 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-06): 123.6 Bcf/d, +4.6% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Baker Hughes rig count: no free source (published as web XLSX, fetch not wired yet)

Power

ERCOT North DA $45.78 (prev $41.99) - heat rate 16.2 (prev 14.9) - spark $24.52 (prev $20.82)

PJM West DA $67.80 (prev $53.29) - heat rate 23.9 (prev 18.9) - spark $46.54 (prev $32.12)

CAISO SP15 DA $84.12 (prev $76.37) - heat rate 29.7 (prev 27.1) - spark $62.87 (prev $55.21)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €82.05/MWh (~$27.90/MMBtu) +3.5% (+3.5%, 1.4σ)

JKM $24.82/MMBtu +0.5%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $21.98/MMBtu; TTF−HH $25.07

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $102.48 (+6.7%, 3.3σ)

Brent $107.63 (+6.3%, 3.2σ)

Energy equities

VST $147.05 (-2.7%, 1.4σ)

↳ Vistra's 2.7% decline accompanies a $1.5 billion junior subordinated notes offering that dilutes equity holders.

CEG $285.97 (-2.7%, 1.3σ)

↳ Constellation Energy declined 2.7% despite announcing a $715 million acquisition of Rhode Island State Energy Center from Shell, suggesting market concern about deal terms or valuation.

DVN $50.02 (+2.1%, 1.3σ)

↳ Devon Energy gained 2.1% on a Stifel Buy rating and strong oil backdrop, with additional support from investor pressure to pursue asset sales post-Coterra merger.

NRG $111.65 (-3.2%, 1.0σ)

↳ NRG Energy slipped on investor focus regarding company guidance, with the headline not providing specific details on guidance changes.

NVDA $218.36 (-2.3%, 0.8σ)

↳ The headlines provided discuss NVIDIA's competitive position, export challenges, and data center adoption but do not clearly explain the 2.3% decline in the stock price.

Quiet: WMB -3.1% · KMI -1.5% · TLN -2.5% · EQT +0.6% · LNG +0.7% · RRC +0.3% · AMZN -0.2% · MSFT +0.2% · AR +0.1%

Friday recall

Close the email and answer out loud. Answers at the very bottom.

1. Where did Henry Hub close each day this week?
2. What's the widow-maker (Mar/Apr) spread into the weekend?
3. Where did SP15 day-ahead print this week?
4. What was Thursday's storage number vs. the 5-year?