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August 4, 2026

CEG +4.2% (1.9σ) | HH $2.78 | 14 others

ENERGY BRIEF · Tue Aug 04, 2026 · session Aug 03
THE NUMBER
$2.78
Henry Hub front month
+1.2%, 0.6σ

Weather

6-10 Day Outlook For Aug 09 - 13 2026 map

8-14 Day Outlook For Aug 11 - 17 2026 map

Gas-weighted HDD, next 7 days: 0 total (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

Pop-weighted CDD, next 7 days: 81 total (11, 11, 12, 11, 11, 12, 13)

HDD/CDD vs. normal: no free source (CPC normals file not located; forecast level shown instead)

Natural gas

Henry Hub front month $2.78 (+1.2%, 0.6σ)

Front/second (U26/V26): -0.043 - contango

Widow-maker H27/J27: +0.139 (H 2.999 / J 2.860)

Storage 3084 Bcf (+28 w/w, +173 vs 5-yr, -39 vs yr-ago)

Production (marketed, monthly proxy 2026-05): 121.8 Bcf/d, +3.8% y/y

Regional basis (Waha, Algonquin, SoCal, TZ6, AECO): no free source (no free daily marks)

LNG feedgas noms (Sabine, Corpus, Freeport, Plaquemines): no free source (pipeline EBB data is paid)

Power burn (daily): no free source (weekly/monthly only)

Power

ERCOT North DA $29.13 (prev $36.67) - heat rate 10.5 (prev 13.3) - spark $8.27 (prev $16.07)

PJM West DA $49.88 (prev $37.57) - heat rate 17.9 (prev 13.7) - spark $29.03 (prev $16.97)

CAISO SP15 DA $41.45 (prev $42.76) - heat rate 14.9 (prev 15.6) - spark $20.59 (prev $22.15)

Global gas & carbon

TTF €57.51/MWh (~$19.42/MMBtu) -2.7% (-2.7%, 0.7σ)

JKM $21.25/MMBtu -0.9%

Cargo arb JKM−HH: $18.47/MMBtu; TTF−HH $16.64

CCA / RGGI allowances: no free source (no free daily marks)

Crude

WTI $80.34 (-5.1%, 1.3σ)

Brent $83.77 (-7.0%, 1.6σ)

Energy equities

TIER 2

CEG $273.71 (+4.2%, 1.9σ)

Constellation Energy rallied 4.2% following a strong July that saw the stock climb over 13% after securing wins in PJM's capacity auction and attracting Blue Energy investment. The company operates the largest nuclear fleet in the U.S., positioning it to capitalize on rising electricity demand from data centers and AI infrastructure. The transmission mechanism: nuclear generation provides stable, carbon-free baseload power increasingly sought by hyperscalers under power purchase agreements. Capacity auction victories ensure revenue certainty and premium pricing. These structural tailwinds reduce regulatory and operational risk, supporting higher valuations despite CEG's recent 13% run. Watch the PJM 2025-26 capacity auction results closely. How Constellation allocates winning bids and whether additional Blue Energy-type partnerships materialize will signal whether current momentum reflects genuine demand acceleration or near-term sentiment that could reverse.

  • Constellation Energy: Cheaper But Same Nuclear Tailwinds (NASDAQ:CEG) - Seeking Alpha
  • Constellation Was a Big Utility Winner in July, Climbing Over 13% After Blue Energy Investment, PJM Capacity Auction Win - citybiz
  • Constellation Energy: A Strong Buy For The Largest Nuclear Fleet - Seeking Alpha
TIER 2

Microsoft capex signal (capex)

Microsoft's capital expenditure continues to accelerate driven by massive AI infrastructure buildout, with the company committing $175bn to data center expansion as part of the intensifying hyperscaler competition for AI capabilities.

  • Street Got Cloud Capex Wrong: Morgan Stanley’s $1.4T Math After Hyperscaler Earnings - Tech Times
  • Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta now spend more on data centers than on R&D - Voronoi
  • Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta Q2 earnings: The AI CapEx ROIC is bad thesis is DEAD - UncoverAlpha
TIER 2

Amazon capex signal (capex)

Amazon's capex spending aligns with broader hyperscaler trend of unprecedented cloud and AI infrastructure investment, with analyst reassessment suggesting the ROIC thesis on these expenditures is improving.

  • Street Got Cloud Capex Wrong: Morgan Stanley’s $1.4T Math After Hyperscaler Earnings - Tech Times
  • Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta Q2 earnings: The AI CapEx ROIC is bad thesis is DEAD - UncoverAlpha

Meta capex signal (capex)

↳ Meta's capex commitment of $145bn reflects the company's position in the AI infrastructure race alongside other hyperscalers, with recent earnings suggesting capital deployment efficiency concerns may be easing.

VST $155.94 (+5.2%, 1.8σ)

↳ VST rallied 5.2% on AI power demand optimism and upcoming earnings expectations, with multiple institutional investors building positions in the power generator.

Quiet: GOOGL +4.9% · KMI -1.5% · NVDA +2.9% · NRG +3.5% · LNG -2.1% · WMB -1.6% · TLN +3.1% · DVN -1.2% · AR +0.9% · RRC +0.5% · EQT +0.5%

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← Newer NRG -15.5% (4.6σ) | HH $2.68 | 9 others Older → AMZN +15.3% (8.4σ) | HH $2.75 | 6 others
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