Why We Went To The Moon… And Then Never Went Back
On the historical parallels between lunar and Antarctic exploration and what those parallels could have predicted
Almost as incredible as the fact that we went to the Moon (and for the avoidance of doubt, we did), is the fact that having gone there six times between 1969 and 1972, we never went back again. At the time, this would have seemed scarcely believable. Gerry Anderson certainly thought we’d have large, permanent bases on the moon by the end of the century; so did Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke.
At a family dinner some years ago, my older brother Jim, who’d been born in 1966, recalled that his oldest and first childhood memory was being taken out into the garden at the age of just three by our mother who pointed at the Moon and told him there were men up there. I, who’d been born in 1969, quickly did some mental arithmetic and realised that when Apollo 17 had landed on the Moon in December 1972, I’d have been three and a half. Why, I asked my mother, had she not taken me out to see that?
Her answer was both poignant and illuminating. When Apollo 11 had landed, she explained, she’d realised that it would be Jim’s first chance to look at a Moon that had men on it. But when Apollo 17 landed, she never dreamed for a moment that it might be my last ever chance to look at a Moon that had men on it.
But actually, both logic and history tell us that this failure to return isn’t so surprising.
It’s a fact well known that men first stood at the Earth’s South Pole in 1911, when Amundsen’s expedition reached it, followed five week’s later by Scott’s party. What’s less well known is that it wasn’t until 1956, some 44 years later than humans next stood on that spot. And when they did, they arrived not on skis and sleds but in twin-engine cargo aircraft that landed on the snow.
The point is that by the early years of the twentieth century it had become possible – just – for human beings to reach the South Pole, but only with huge effort, and only then for a few people for a few days. Actually going there to stay, to do things, would require a step change in technology. Which meant that once someone had got the glory of being first, there was no point anyone else going back there until that step change had occurred.
But we might perhaps, some 51 years and counting since our last visit be finally approaching that step change in technology. Yes, the Starship launch of last week was hardly a resounding success, but with the prospect of a fully reusable launch system in the offing (because I do think Space X will eventually get it working), I think we can start to see the prospect of a return to the Moon (although I do think it will be some years later than the current, in my opinion optimistic target of December 2025).
But that’s probably for another post…
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