The State of the Threat
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Daily Brief, September 27, 2026
September 27, 2026
Daily Brief, September 27, 2026 Top Story Iran's Hormuz authority is running a vessel blacklist, and the only published way off it is a letter conceding...
Daily Brief, September 26, 2026
September 26, 2026
Daily Brief, September 26, 2026 Top Story Euroclear is appealing a €200bn Russian judgment entered against it for obeying EU sanctions Russia's central bank...
Daily Brief, September 25, 2026
September 25, 2026
Daily Brief, September 25, 2026 Top Story Bab el-Mandeb's four transit counts range from 4 to 41 vessels a day for the same 11 days, and contracts never say...
Daily Brief, September 24, 2026
September 24, 2026
Daily Brief, September 24, 2026 Top Story UAE Central Bank clears National Bank of Egypt to absorb Banque Misr's five UAE branches, days before the US...
Daily Brief, September 23, 2026
September 23, 2026
Daily Brief, September 23, 2026 Top Story Iran names its price for reopening Hormuz: four conditions and a seven-day clock [RU/FA · Kommersant, Donya-e-...
Daily Brief, September 22, 2026
September 22, 2026
Daily Brief, September 22, 2026 Top Story France waives its winter diesel specification as pump prices set records on two continents France let summer-grade...
Daily Brief, September 21, 2026
September 21, 2026
Daily Brief, September 21, 2026 Top Story Two Western governments published Hormuz transit counts a full order apart for the same weekend [ES/FA · Infobae,...
Weekly Threat Brief — September 20, 2026
September 20, 2026
Every story this week turns on the same gap: the party making the decision is not the party absorbing the consequence. Iran decides who gets tolled through...
Daily Brief, September 20, 2026
September 20, 2026
Daily Brief, September 20, 2026 Top Story Four consumers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and xAI alleging illegal antitrust coordination to slow AI development...
Daily Brief, September 16, 2026
September 16, 2026
Daily Brief, September 16, 2026 Top Story Norway opens two criminal probes into Telenor over Myanmar junta data handovers and a divestiture that moved...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — September 13, 2026
September 13, 2026
Twenty-five years after 9/11, the systems built to make sense of instability are running lighter just as instability stacks up. The lead this week is the...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — September 6, 2026
September 6, 2026
Every story this week surfaced only because someone was forced to look. A record diesel price exposed two wars landing on the same barrel. A confession...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — August 30, 2026
August 30, 2026
The Biggest Oil Deal in History Runs Through a Company Still on the Sanctions List Confidence: MODERATE · Latin America, United States · Energy Sanctions did...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — August 23, 2026
August 23, 2026
A UK Power Plant Went Dark for Four Days. Five Agencies Just Confirmed the Bigger Problem. Confidence: MODERATE · United Kingdom, United States, Iran ·...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — August 15, 2026
August 16, 2026
The New Privateers Won't Know Whose Ship They're Boarding Confidence: HIGH · United States, Germany, North Korea · Technology, Financial Services North...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — August 8, 2026
August 9, 2026
Nobody Is Waiting for the Hormuz Deal to Work Confidence: HIGH · Iran, Saudi Arabia, Middle East · Energy, Maritime, Insurance The corridor deal exists on...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — August 2, 2026
August 2, 2026
The Blockade Has a Business Model Confidence: HIGH · Iran, Saudi Arabia · Energy, Maritime, Logistics If your 2027 planning assumes a Middle East ceasefire...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — July 26, 2026
July 26, 2026
You already have the war coverage. Every wire service delivered the strikes, the pause, and a diplomatic reading of both before you finished your coffee on...
The moves that reset your year got filed, not fought
July 19, 2026
The war with Iran ran the week: the ceasefire collapsed, two US service members were killed in Jordan, and American strikes on Iran are now in their second...
Weekly Intelligence Brief — July 12, 2026
July 12, 2026
A note as we publish: Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice" this morning, after a third round of US strikes...
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