Ringside

Pre-BellFriday, September 4, 2026

Indexes

Everything that happens today happens after 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The August employment report is the last major labour reading before the Federal Reserve decides on September 16, and it arrives into a market that spent Thursday unwinding the case for an increase. Christopher Waller told Reuters he would argue for leaving the funds rate at its 3.50% to 3.75% target if inflation keeps cooling, and the implied odds of a quarter-point move fell from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip. The Dow gained 624 points on that and the S&P 500 closed at 7,747.71. Contracts have gone almost nowhere since: Nasdaq 100 futures carry a 0.36% gain on strength in Nvidia, Dow futures a 0.14% loss.

Asia took the American rally and pressed it harder than America did. Hong Kong ended a four-session losing run as Tencent added 2.1% and JD.com 2.5%, and Seoul kept building on Wednesday's recovery.

Europe declined to join in. The FTSE 100 at 10,828.44 and the CAC 40 at 8,272.07 are a rounding error from Thursday, and the DAX has managed 0.21% while it digests Volkswagen.

S&P 500 ETF, daily. The index closed Thursday at 7,747.71, within 0.9% of its 52-week high.

Nasdaq 100 ETF, daily. The cash index closed at 29,482.32, above its 50-day average of 29,221.77.

Russell 2000 ETF, daily. The cash index ended Thursday at 2,968.27, below a 50-day average of 2,989.50.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

The front end supplied Thursday's move and has kept it. Two-year notes traded as low as 4.30% before finishing five basis points cheaper at 4.34%, while the thirty-year gave up barely half as much and the dollar lost 0.6%. None of it has been extended or given back overnight, which is what a market waiting on one number looks like.

Oil is the reason the Federal Reserve argument is live at all. American strikes on Iran this week ended roughly a month of calm, Tehran answered by targeting bases and shipping, and crude has added close to 10% since Monday while refinery damage in the Middle East and in Russia limits anyone's ability to make up the shortfall. Bullion appears as a level only: the December contract and the spot reference sit more than $40 apart this morning, and no third quote resolves them.

Technicals

The S&P 500 sits 0.9% under its 52-week high of 7,816.70, with the 50-day average down at 7,576.70 and little in the way between here and the record. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,482.32, clear of a 50-day at 29,221.77 but 4.2% short of its own high.

The Russell 2000 is the exception, and on a labour-market Friday that matters. It rose 0.51% on Thursday and still finished at 2,968.27, twenty-one points beneath a 50-day average of 2,989.50, the only major American index under that line. Small caps carry the heaviest debt loads and the shortest maturities, so they express most directly what today's report does to the September meeting.

In the Treasury market, the two-year at 4.34% has retraced most of the jump that followed Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks in late August. The ten-year at 4.76% has been far steadier, leaving the 42 basis point gap between them to express the policy risk.

Breakouts and Breakdowns

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) closed Thursday at $58.56 against a 52-week high of $58.60. Banks led every sector as yields fell, leaving the fund four cents from a level it has approached repeatedly since the spring. Its intraday chart appears below.

XLF, hourly. Financials closed at $58.56 on Thursday, four cents below the 52-week high of $58.60.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is marked at $231.41 before the open, 2.2% under a 52-week high of $236.54 and well above a 50-day average of $209.28. It is carrying the Nasdaq 100 contract this morning on nothing more specific than a cheaper policy path ahead.

Broadcom (AVGO) went the other way. It closed at $357.16 on Thursday after Tuesday evening's results, beneath both its 50-day average of $384.58 and its 200-day of $369.68, and this morning's 1.1% recovery to $361.20 leaves both overhead. Artificial-intelligence chip revenue grew 221% last quarter; the shares sit 27.8% under a 52-week high of $495.00.

Top Movers

Gainers

Samsara (IOT) trades 14.2% higher at $44.25. The fleet and equipment software company crossed $2.1 billion in annual recurring revenue in the July quarter, up 30% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $508.4 million and adjusted earnings of $0.20 a share. Management raised full-year revenue guidance by 2% to $2.043 billion to $2.047 billion and left the 21% operating margin target alone, the combination software buyers have paid for all year: growth that costs nothing extra to produce. A 52-week high of $47.47 is 7% away.

American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is 25.0% higher at $12.51 after quarterly sales rose 25.4% to $37.3 million, gross margin widened 630 basis points to 53%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance went to $14.5 million to $17.5 million.

Losers

Lululemon (LULU) is indicated 19.8% lower at $97.67, which would be its lowest level in years and 57% below a 52-week high of $225.98. Quarterly revenue fell about 4% to $2.4 billion and earnings came to $2.92 a share against $3.10 a year ago, though $0.86 of that was tariff refunds rather than trading. The damage sits in the outlook: full-year revenue guidance now runs $10.35 billion to $10.50 billion with earnings of $9.48 to $9.73, down from the $11.00 billion to $11.15 billion and $10.95 to $11.15 set in June, which was itself cut from $11.35 billion to $11.50 billion. Comparable sales fell 9% globally and revenue in the Americas fell 8%. Management pointed to softer traffic, heavier markdowns and higher spending, none of which is about a competitor.

Oxford Industries (OXM) is 18.1% lower at $30.01 on the same evening's results. Quarterly sales slipped to $394 million from $403 million and adjusted earnings improved to $1.34 a share from $1.26, but the owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer cut its full-year outlook to sales of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.60 to $2.00, both under last year. Tommy Bahama itself grew 0.8% to $230.9 million; the weakness sat elsewhere in the portfolio.

Asana (ASAN) falls 8.5% to $9.25 despite beating on both lines, with revenue up 10% to $216.4 million and adjusted earnings of $0.10 against $0.09 expected. Guidance for the current quarter of $217 million to $219 million and $0.08 a share sits at or below consensus and implies growth slowing toward 8%. Gross margin narrowed about 120 basis points from the prior quarter to 87% as artificial-intelligence infrastructure costs and the StackAI acquisition landed together.

Zscaler (ZS) gives back 2.3% to $173.66 after a quarter that beat on every line, with revenue up 25% to $898.2 million and adjusted earnings of $1.19 a share. The trouble is next year: guidance of $3.908 billion to $3.938 billion in revenue works out to growth of 16.6% to 17.5%, against the 25% just delivered. A similar slowdown in May cost the shares 31% in one session; a 2.3% decline this time is a market that had already marked it in.

Lululemon, daily. Thursday's close was $121.77; premarket trade points to an open near $97.70.

Samsara, daily. A $44.25 premarket mark would take the shares back toward the 52-week high of $47.47.

Key Macro Data Today

The summer produced almost no net hiring, and the Dow Jones consensus of 53,000 would still leave the three-month average close to zero. What makes the reading awkward is that the Federal Reserve's problem this autumn is priced in barrels rather than in wages. A weak employment figure would ordinarily settle the September question in favour of a hold; it does nothing about energy costs feeding the inflation data.

Earnings Today

Nothing reports today that will move an index; the week finished with Thursday evening's software and retail results.

Drivers

1. Wage growth is the line that decides how much comfort a weak headline actually buys. Average hourly earnings are expected at 3.0% against a year ago, down from 3.2%, and a reading near 3% lets the doves argue the labour market is no longer generating inflation on its own. Anything at 3.3% or above, paired with crude at six-week highs, hands the argument back to the people who wanted a move this month.
2. Small caps have more riding on this than the headline indices. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,968.27 on Thursday, still short of its 50-day average at 2,989.50, and its constituents refinance at the front of the curve where the two-year sits at 4.34%.
3. The seven OPEC+ producers meet on Sunday to review a market they did not expect. They finished unwinding 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts with a 188,000-barrel increase for September and have signalled quotas will hold through the rest of the year, but that plan was made when Brent traded in the eighties and Hormuz carried its normal traffic. Any decision to add supply would be the first answer to a rally of almost 10% in a week. The group's statement is due Sunday, ahead of Monday's open in Asia.