Ringside · Pre-Bell · October 9
- AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fall 6.8% to 7.7% after SpaceX agrees to buy nationwide 800 MHz wireless spectrum.
- Delta Air Lines cuts its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 a share on higher fuel costs.
- Brent falls 1.11% to $103.12 after President Trump said the US will not strike Iran before November 3.
Indexes
Stock futures are higher, led by the Nasdaq 100, as chipmakers recover part of Thursday's losses and oil prices ease. Chip stocks fell Thursday after a report that OpenAI's revenue was lower than earlier estimates. The S&P 500 fell 0.47% Thursday to 7,765.36. Stocks rose in Europe and Hong Kong. South Korea's market was closed for a holiday.
| Futures / overnight | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,843.00 | +0.34% | |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 31,195.25 | +0.73% | Fell 1.39% Thursday |
| YM (Dow) | 51,504.00 | +0.02% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,815.90 | +0.22% | |
| Stoxx 600 | 629.96 | +0.71% | Telecom shares fell on the SpaceX deal |
| DAX | 25,025.38 | +0.88% | Thursday close was the lowest since July 23 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,515.75 | +0.71% | Vodafone and BT lower |
| CAC 40 | 7,768.39 | +0.50% | |
| Nikkei 225 | 69,030.92 | -0.02% | SoftBank and Advantest fell |
| Hang Seng | 24,211.35 | +1.79% | Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi rose |
| Shanghai SSE index | 3,813.79 | +0.05% | Recovered from a 1.2% morning drop |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Oil fell after President Trump's comments on Iran and on reports that China is resuming fuel exports after its national holiday.
| Rates & volatility | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.77% | Wednesday close, Federal Reserve H.15 | |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.23% | Thursday close | |
| 2s10s spread | 51 bp | Gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, Wednesday close | |
| VIX | 15.30 | -0.71% | |
| Dollar index | 102.17 | +0.03% |
| Commodity | Overnight futures | Thu settle | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $90.84 | $91.49 | -0.71% |
| Brent crude | $103.12 | $104.28 | -1.11% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,206.50 | ||
| Natural gas | $3.122 |
Technicals
The 0.34% gain in futures points to an S&P 500 open near 7,792. Tuesday's close of 7,818.93, the highest of the past year, is first resistance. The 20-day and 50-day averages are both near 7,693, about 1% below Thursday's close. The 200-day average is 7,245.96.
The Nasdaq 100 closed Thursday at 30,725.81, and the gain in futures points to an open near 30,950. Its 20-day average, at 30,238.13, is first support. Tuesday's close of 31,224.47 is resistance.
The 10-year yield closed Thursday at 5.23%. On Monday it closed at 5.31%, the highest in 24 years. Its 20-day average is 5.13%.
The 2-year yield, the one most tied to Fed expectations, closed Wednesday at 4.77%. It has traded between 4.56% and 4.92% over the past 20 sessions. A close above 4.92% would take it out of that range.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
AbbVie (ABBV) closed at $272.42, above its October 7 close of $271.36, the previous one-year closing high. It is indicated at $273.00. The 50-day average is $258.51.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed at $463.34, above its October 7 close of $442.26, the previous one-year closing high. It is indicated at $460.50, and the 50-day average is $376.15.
Breakdowns
Amazon (AMZN) closed at $254.06, below its 50-day average of $258.56. It is indicated at $255.45. The 200-day average, at $241.98, is the next support.
Caterpillar (CAT) closed Thursday at $796.18, just below its 200-day average of $800.24. It is indicated at $805.00, back above that average. The 50-day average is $822.17.
Top Movers
Gainers
Humana (HUM) rises 14.18% to $442.00 after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released its 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings. Humana said 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are in plans rated 4 stars or higher, including its largest contract. The ratings set the quality bonuses insurers receive in 2028. Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform. The indicated price is above the previous one-year closing high of $409.80, set September 11.
Crown Castle (CCI) rises 8.43% to $74.70 after the SpaceX spectrum deal. American Tower (AMT) gains 6.18% to $177.03. Bernstein said SpaceX may build its own ground network, which would need space on cell towers.
Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.57% to $234.10 after falling Thursday. Micron Technology (MU) gains 1.75% to $1,053.93.
Losers
AT&T (T) falls 6.92% to $23.15. Verizon (VZ) drops 6.77% to $43.21. T-Mobile US (TMUS) loses 7.65% to $158.20. SpaceX agreed to buy private investment firm Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, a low-frequency band that carries signals through walls, for about $8 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported. SpaceX said the deal would help Starlink "become a major mobile carrier in the US." It needs Federal Communications Commission approval. AT&T and Verizon also trade without their quarterly dividends today, worth about 28 cents and 71 cents a share. T-Mobile is indicated below its October 1 close of $161.73, its lowest close in a year.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) falls 4.07% to $78.80 after third-quarter adjusted earnings missed forecasts. Delta earned $1.72 a share; analysts expected $1.82, according to Investing.com. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to a third-quarter record of $17.6 billion. Delta now expects 2026 earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share. In July it had forecast $6.50 to $7.50. It expects $1.15 to $1.65 a share in the fourth quarter. Delta expects fuel to cost about $4.25 a gallon this quarter. United Airlines (UAL) slips 0.98% to $106.39.
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) falls 22.96% to $6.71 after the star ratings, and William Blair downgraded it to Market Perform. CVS Health (CVS) drops 1.72% to $86.29; its Aetna unit said more than 69% of its Medicare Advantage members are in plans rated 4 stars or higher.
Apple (AAPL) falls 1.78% to $334.35 after Nikkei Asia reported that it cut October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by at least 15% because demand was weaker than expected.
Macro Calendar
The University of Michigan's consumer survey at 10 a.m. is the only major US release.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 a.m. | University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary | 47.5 (Investing.com) | 48.1 |
| 10:00 a.m. | One-year inflation expectations, October preliminary | — | 4.6% |
| 10:00 a.m. | Five-to-10-year inflation expectations, October preliminary | — | 3.4% |
| 1:00 p.m. | Baker Hughes oil rig count | — | 456 |
Earnings Today
Delta Air Lines was the only major company scheduled to report before the open, and it holds its call at 10 a.m. No major companies report after the close.
Drivers
- Hurricane Isaias had top winds of 110 mph at 5 a.m. ET and is likely to become a major hurricane this morning, the National Hurricane Center said. It is expected to make landfall tonight or early Saturday between Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. Gulf of Mexico producers have shut about 1.3 million barrels a day of crude output, more than 60% of the region's total, Bloomberg reported.
- The University of Michigan survey at 10 a.m. includes consumers' inflation expectations. In September, they expected prices to rise 4.6% over the next year. The September consumer price index is due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
- Stock markets are open Monday, but the bond market is closed for Columbus Day. The largest US banks begin reporting third-quarter results Tuesday.