Ringside · Pre-Bell · October 8
- Brent rises 5.12% to $105.33 on reports the US is preparing options for Iran strikes before the November 3 midterms.
- PepsiCo beat third-quarter forecasts but cut its 2026 core earnings growth outlook to 2.5% to 3.5%.
- The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 p.m., with the 30-year yield at 5.66%.
Indexes
Stock futures are lower after reports that the White House is weighing new strikes on Iran sent oil up about 5%. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,801.77, down 0.22% from Tuesday's record. Stocks fell across Asia and Europe.
| Futures / overnight | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,808.75 | -0.49% | |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 31,147.00 | -0.68% | |
| YM (Dow) | 50,958.00 | -0.85% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,781.80 | -0.89% | |
| Stoxx 600 | 624.28 | -0.95% | |
| DAX | 24,840.85 | -1.05% | |
| CAC 40 | 7,695.92 | -0.94% | |
| FTSE 100 | 10,415.34 | -0.41% | |
| Nikkei 225 | 69,042.11 | -1.42% | |
| Kospi | 6,625.93 | -2.62% | Samsung reported a record quarterly profit |
| Hang Seng | 23,785.79 | -1.43% | |
| Shanghai SSE index | 3,811.90 | -0.79% | Change from September 30 |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Crude rose on the Iran reports and on Gulf of Mexico output shut ahead of Hurricane Isaias.
| Rates & volatility | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.79% | Tuesday close, Federal Reserve H.15 | |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.28% | Wednesday close; touched 5.36% | |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.66% | Wednesday close; auction today | |
| 2s10s spread | 48 bp | Gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, Tuesday close | |
| VIX | 15.97 | +5.90% | |
| Dollar index | 102.38 | +0.15% |
| Commodity | Overnight futures | Wed settle | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $92.75 | $88.28 | +5.06% |
| Brent crude | $105.33 | $100.20 | +5.12% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,144.00 | $4,134.60 | +0.23% |
| Natural gas | $3.264 | $3.211 | +1.65% |
Technicals
S&P 500 futures point to an open near 7,764, right at Wednesday's low of 7,763.34. That is first support. The 20-day and 50-day averages are both near 7,685, about 1% lower. The 200-day average, at 7,241.31, is about 7% below the indicated open.
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 31,160.08. That is about 3% above its 20-day average. The 50-day average, at 29,648.53, is the next support below.
The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.28% after reaching 5.36% during the day. Monday's close of 5.31% was the highest in 24 years. A close above it would be a new 24-year high.
The 2-year yield, the one most tied to Fed expectations, closed Tuesday at 4.79%. It traded between 4.71% and 4.92% in September.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Valero Energy (VLO) closed at $424.10, above its October 5 close of $419.33, the previous one-year high. It is indicated at $430.52, well above its 50-day average of $362.21.
Arista Networks (ANET) closed at $215.83, above Tuesday's $215.36, the previous one-year closing high. Indicated at $214.57, it is back below that level. The 50-day average is $195.89.
Breakdowns
McDonald's (MCD) closed at $230.88, just under its September 30 close of $230.94, the previous one-year low. The 50-day average of $257.01 is 11% higher.
Nike (NKE) is approaching its October 2 closing low of $33.87. It closed Wednesday at $34.36 and is indicated at $34.09. The 50-day average is $38.47.
Top Movers
Gainers
PepsiCo (PEP) rises 1.79% to $125.94 after third-quarter results beat forecasts. Core earnings rose to $2.34 a share from $2.29 a year earlier. Revenue of $25.27 billion topped the $24.95 billion analysts polled by FactSet expected. PepsiCo now expects 2026 core earnings to grow 2.5% to 3.5%. It had forecast growth at the low end of 5% to 7%. The company said it plans more cost cuts to offset rising input costs. Organic revenue was flat in both North American divisions, and its international units grew 6% to 9%.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) rises 1.77% to $166.95 as crude climbs. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) gains 2.47% to $59.65.
Losers
argenx (ARGX) falls 14.46% to $794.15 after it stopped a late-stage trial of efgartigimod in Sjögren's disease, an immune disorder that causes dry eyes and mouth. An independent monitoring committee found the study could not meet its main goal at week 48. The company said safety results matched the drug's known profile.
United Airlines (UAL) falls 1.97% to $108.00 as oil prices jump. Delta Air Lines (DAL) drops 1.54% to $81.69. Higher crude raises the cost of jet fuel. Delta reports third-quarter results before the open Friday.
Micron Technology (MU) slips 2.07% to $1,065.48 after workers at its Taoyuan plant in Taiwan voted to authorize a strike over bonuses. Of 2,012 union members who voted, 1,994 were in favor, AFP reported. No strike date has been set, and talks at the company's larger Taichung plant continue.
Macro Calendar
Weekly jobless claims and the 30-year bond auction are the main US events.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 a.m. | Initial jobless claims, week to Oct. 3 | 200,000 (Investing.com) | 197,000 |
| 8:30 a.m. | Continuing claims, week to Sept. 26 | 1.71 million (Investing.com) | 1.70 million |
| 10:00 a.m. | Wholesale inventories, August final | +0.7% (Investing.com) | +0.7% |
| 10:30 a.m. | EIA natural gas storage, week | 79 bcf (Investing.com) | 64 bcf |
| 1:00 p.m. | $22 billion 30-year bond auction | — | — |
| 1:40 p.m. | St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks | — | — |
Claims have stayed near 200,000 a week, a low level that points to few layoffs.
Earnings Today
Before the open, Helen of Troy (HELE), which makes OXO kitchen tools and Hydro Flask bottles, is expected to earn $0.50 a share, according to Kiplinger.
No major companies report after the close, according to Kiplinger.
Drivers
- The White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for new strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, The Atlantic reported, citing two administration officials. Axios reported that the Pentagon told Central Command to finish preparations for a possible return to major combat, with no launch date set. President Trump has not made a final decision. Brent reached $108 in mid-September, CBS News reported.
- The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 p.m. Wednesday's 10-year sale drew strong demand, which pulled yields down from their highs. Weak demand could push long-term yields back up.
- Delta Air Lines reports third-quarter results before the open Friday. Jet fuel prices track crude oil. Analysts expect Delta to earn $1.94 a share, according to Kiplinger.