Ringside · Pre-Bell · October 12
- South Korea's Kospi fell 3.65% to 6,384.24 as foreign investors sold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
- Brent rises 1.05% to $105.82 after Ukraine said Russia kept attacking its energy sites despite Sunday's ceasefire.
- Salesforce rises 4.10% to $238.52 after BofA Securities upgraded the stock two notches to Buy.
Indexes
Stock futures are little changed ahead of the first big bank earnings reports Tuesday and the September consumer price index Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% Friday to 7,811.54. It gained 1.2% for the week, the Associated Press reported. Stocks are higher in Europe. Chipmakers led a selloff in Seoul, and Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
| Futures / overnight | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,864.50 | +0.06% | |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 31,069.25 | -0.13% | Chip stocks lower before the open |
| YM (Dow) | 51,968.00 | +0.08% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,823.60 | +0.05% | |
| Stoxx 600 | 635.17 | +0.57% | Carmakers rose after the EU-China hybrid deal |
| DAX | 25,265.61 | +0.71% | |
| FTSE 100 | 10,624.13 | +0.68% | |
| CAC 40 | 7,824.58 | +0.27% | |
| Kospi | 6,384.24 | -3.65% | Versus Thursday's close; Seoul was shut Friday |
| Hang Seng | 24,271.20 | +0.25% | |
| CSI 300 | 4,287.98 | -0.68% |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day, so yields stay at last week's closing levels. Oil fell about 1.5% early in the session after the ceasefire announcement, then turned higher, CNBC reported.
| Rates & volatility | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.75% | Thursday close, Federal Reserve H.15 | |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | Friday close; bond market shut today | |
| 2s10s spread | 47 bp | Gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, Thursday close | |
| VIX | 14.84 | Friday close | |
| Dollar index | 102.40 | +0.18% |
| Commodity | Overnight futures | Fri settle | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $92.85 | $91.85 | +1.09% |
| Brent crude | $105.82 | $104.72 | +1.05% |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,202.00 | ||
| Natural gas | $3.146 |
Technicals
Futures point to an S&P 500 open near 7,816, just below Tuesday's record close of 7,818.93. It was the index's first record close since mid-August, above the prior record set then, Reuters reported. That level is first resistance. The 20-day average is 7,704.77 and the 50-day is 7,696.92. The 200-day average is 7,250.63.
The Nasdaq 100 closed Friday at 30,883.15, and futures point to an open near 30,845. Support is the 20-day average at 30,313.87. Tuesday's close of 31,224.47 is resistance.
The 10-year yield closed Friday at 5.24%. On October 5 it closed at 5.31%, its highest in 24 years. Its 20-day average is 5.15%.
The 2-year yield, which moves most with Fed expectations, closed Thursday at 4.75%. Over the past 20 sessions it ranged from 4.63% to 4.92%. A close above 4.92% would break that range.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Snowflake (SNOW) rose to $368.89 Friday, above its September 3 close of $356.47, the previous one-year closing high. Its 20-day average, at $336.95, is the nearest support.
Visa (V) closed Friday at $385.45, just above its August 25 close of $384.14, the previous one-year closing high. The 50-day average is $369.73.
Breakdowns
Arm Holdings (ARM) closed Friday at $266.28, below its 50-day average of $269.86. It is indicated at $262.85. The July 29 close of $224.89 is the next support.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) closed at $227.52, below its 50-day average of $230.60. Its September 16 close of $218.98, the lowest in three months, is the next support.
Top Movers
Gainers
Salesforce (CRM) rises 4.10% to $238.52 after BofA Securities raised its rating to Buy from Underperform and lifted its price target to $285 from $160, Investing.com reported. BofA said chief information officers at large companies told it they are unlikely to replace Salesforce's software. That eases a worry that AI tools would take business from the company. ServiceNow (NOW) gains 1.64% to $143.17.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) rises 4.80% to $61.96 after its drug admilparant met the main goal of a late-stage trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a lung-scarring disease. The 60 mg dose slowed the loss of lung capacity over 52 weeks compared with placebo. The 120 mg dose also slowed the decline, but that result was not statistically significant. The company plans to seek approval and expects results from a second trial early next year.
Losers
Micron Technology (MU) falls 2.08% to $1,007.57 after memory makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped in Seoul. Samsung forecast a record quarterly operating profit of 107.4 trillion won last week on higher memory prices. Astera Labs (ALAB) falls 1.56% to $336.89. Marvell Technology (MRVL) falls 2.03% to $269.70.
Macro Calendar
No US economic data is scheduled today, and the bond market is closed for Columbus Day. The week's main release is the consumer price index Wednesday.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| All day | Bond market closed; stock exchanges open | — | — |
| Wed 8:30 a.m. | Consumer price index, September, from a year earlier | 3.6% (Reuters poll) | 3.4% |
The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023 and meets October 27-28. Traders have scaled back bets on another increase at that meeting, Reuters reported.
Earnings Today
No major companies report before the open or after the close. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday morning.
Drivers
- Oil is higher after weekend news from Ukraine and Saudi Arabia. President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that Russian drones kept hitting Ukrainian energy targets. The Kremlin said talks on the ceasefire are continuing. Analysts at Singapore bank UOB said in a note that the Houthi strikes on Riyadh have raised the Middle East risk priced into oil.
- Bank results start Tuesday. The S&P 500 banks index fell 9% over the past month as Treasury yields rose, Reuters reported. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and BlackRock follow Wednesday. Investors will watch what the banks say about consumer spending and about how higher rates are affecting deal activity, Reuters reported. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.6% in the third quarter, according to FactSet.
- Wednesday's consumer price index is one of the last major inflation reports before the Fed's October 27-28 meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer prices to rise 3.6% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. The report is due at 8:30 a.m.