Ringside · Pre-Bell · May 28
- The 8:30 a.m. data wall.
- Iran-deal cadence versus overnight strikes.
- Snowflake and the AI-capex pie.
Indexes
| Contract | Level | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,508 | -0.20% | Pulling back from Wednesday's 7,520 record close |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 26,580 | -0.30% | Chips lower as Snowflake/AWS deal shifts AI capex narrative |
| YM (Dow) | 50,580 | -0.12% | Down about 62 points; energy and banks weigh |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,898 | -0.25% | Small caps consolidating after the Tuesday surge |
| Global Tape | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | +0.04% | Flat at 64,995 as yen weakness offsets oil bid |
| Topix | -0.10% | Banks lag on softer Japan core CPI reading |
| Hang Seng | -0.32% | Tech mixed; mainland property names lower |
| CSI 300 | -0.18% | Mainland soft as PBOC holds lending rates at 3.0% |
| Kospi | -0.50% | Memory complex digests the SK Hynix trillion-dollar week |
| FTSE 100 | -0.40% | Energy higher, miners weighed on dollar firmness |
| DAX | -0.55% | Autos and industrials lower on the Iran-strike headline |
| CAC 40 | -0.45% | Luxury softer; LVMH gives back midweek gains |
| Stoxx 600 | -0.50% | Broad-based pullback as overnight US strikes reignite Mideast risk |
In the News
Drivers
1. The 8:30 a.m. data wall. Q1 GDP second estimate, the Q1 GDP price index, weekly jobless claims, and April durable goods all hit within the same minute. The GDP price index is the most market-sensitive number — any upside surprise will pressure the front end of the curve and challenge the duration-relief bid that has dragged the 10-year to a fresh three-week low at 4.47%. A soft print re-engages the cut narrative into Friday's monthly PCE release.
2. Iran-deal cadence versus overnight strikes. Brent and WTI are reversing more than half of Wednesday's 5% drop on the overnight US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, but the broader 60-day ceasefire-extension framework remains in negotiation. Energy stocks open with two competing signals: the diplomatic track points toward a return of Hormuz volumes within thirty days, while the strikes show the ceasefire is fragile. Watch Brent above $96 as a sign the war-premium bid is firming again, or back below $92 as confirmation the diplomatic track is holding.
3. Snowflake and the AI-capex pie. The $6 billion AWS multi-year commitment is the most consequential read since the SK Hynix trillion-dollar rerating earlier this week. The deal directs significant new spending toward Amazon's in-house Graviton CPUs and Trainium accelerators, which is incrementally negative for the Nvidia-only narrative but positive for the broader AI infrastructure spending picture. The implication runs through Dell's AI-server commentary tonight and into next week's Broadcom and Marvell earnings setups.
Rates, FX, Commodities
The bond market is steady into the morning data wall, with the 10-year yield holding near 4.47% — a fresh three-week low that extends the post-minutes duration-relief bid through a fourth session. The dollar is fractionally firmer near 99.28 as the overnight Iran headlines pull a modest safety bid back in. Crude is reversing more than half of Wednesday's 5% plunge, with Brent back through $95 and WTI clear of the $90 line that broke yesterday. Gold is softer near $4,440 as the war premium remains in flux.
| Rates | Level | Change vs Wed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.20 | +0.19 | Modest bid on Iran headlines; still under the 20 line |
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.05% | unch | Front end pinned ahead of GDP and claims data |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.47% | -1 bp | Fourth session lower; through the 4.50 reference |
| 2s10s Spread | +42 bp | -1 bp | Curve fractionally flatter |
| DXY | 99.28 | +0.09 | Fractionally firmer on the safety bid |
| Commodities | Level | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $90.35 | +1.88% | Back above $90 on overnight US strike headlines |
| Brent Crude | $96.07 | +1.88% | Reverses more than half of Wednesday's 5% drop |
| Gold | $4,440 | -0.10% | Holds the post-FOMC unwind; $4,400 the next reference |
| Natural Gas | $3.07 | -0.55% | Slight pullback after the holiday-output surge |
Technicals
The S&P 500 at 7,520 sits roughly 2.3% above the rising 50-day moving average near 7,355 and 5.9% above the 200-day near 7,100. First-line support is 7,500, the shelf that flipped to support after Tuesday's break; resistance steps up to the 7,600 round number. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,675 is consolidating above the 26,500 breakout shelf, with 27,000 the next visible target. The 10-year yield at 4.47% printed a fresh three-week low and is now testing the 4.45% reference; a confirmed break opens 4.30% as the next downside marker, while a reversal back above 4.55% would re-engage the spring high.
Breakouts. Snowflake (SNOW) is set to gap through the $190 resistance shelf and the multi-month base on the AWS partnership and the Q1 print, with measured-move work pointing to the $230-$235 zone. Procter & Gamble (PG) continues the staples-leadership setup after Wednesday's volume confirmation of the $172 ceiling break, with the next visible reference near $180. Marvell Technology (MRVL) is sitting on a clean breakout above the $79 multi-month consolidation top after the AI-driven Q1 beat and guide raise.
Breakdowns. HP Inc (HPQ) is losing the $28 support shelf and the 200-day moving average in extended-hours trade on the lowered FY guide, putting the $25 April low in play. JPMorgan (JPM) closed below the 50-day moving average and the $310 prior-support shelf on Dimon's M&A commentary, with the 200-day near $295 the next visible reference. Exxon Mobil (XOM) is testing the 200-day near $108 after Wednesday's slide; a confirmed break opens the prior-cycle base near $104.
Top Movers
Gainers
Snowflake (SNOW) is up roughly 30% in pre-market trade after reporting fiscal Q1 product revenue of $1.33 billion (up 34% year-over-year), non-GAAP EPS of $0.39 against a $0.32 consensus, and a 126% net revenue retention rate. Management raised the full-year guide and announced a $6 billion multi-year commitment to AWS, dramatically expanding usage of Amazon's Graviton CPUs and AI GPU capacity. The market is rewarding the combination of accelerating growth, the renewed AI demand signal, and the structural shift toward custom silicon — a signal worth watching for the GPU-dependent peer group including Confluent (CFLT), MongoDB (MDB), and Datadog (DDOG).
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up about 8% in pre-market after reporting fiscal Q1 net revenue of $2.42 billion (up 28% year-over-year, a record), non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 versus the $0.79 consensus, and guiding Q2 revenue to $2.7 billion at the midpoint (35% year-over-year growth). The company also raised the full-year revenue framework to roughly $11.5 billion from approximately $11.0 billion, citing accelerating AI-bookings momentum. The implication for Broadcom (AVGO) and Astera Labs (ALAB) is positive on the data-center-connectivity demand signal.
Procter & Gamble (PG) is firmer by roughly 1% in pre-market trade as the staples leadership setup extends following Wednesday's high-volume breakout above the $172 ceiling. The bid reflects defensive rotation flows as the Iran-strike headline reignites geopolitical risk and as the Dimon-driven bank pullback rotates capital into household-products names. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) are trading firmly in sympathy.
Losers
HP Inc (HPQ) is down roughly 7% in pre-market after the lowered full-year EPS range to $2.15-$2.45 (from $2.47-$2.77) overshadowed a Q2 revenue and earnings beat. Management cited component-cost inflation, a more cautious consumer-PC outlook, and tariff-related headwinds. The implication is meaningful for Dell (DELL), which reports after the bell tonight, and for the broader PC-channel group including Logitech (LOGI) and Best Buy (BBY).
Salesforce (CRM) is lower by about 3% in pre-market after reporting fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $11.13 billion (up 13%) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 (up 50%), with Agentforce annualized recurring revenue surpassing $1.2 billion. Management raised the full-year revenue framework and announced a $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, but the guidance midpoint landed below the most aggressive sell-side bars. The reaction frames the bar for the rest of the application-software group, with Workday (WDAY) and ServiceNow (NOW) trading mixed on the implication.
Nvidia (NVDA) is down about 1% in pre-market as the chip group digests the Snowflake-AWS announcement, which directs significant new AI infrastructure spending toward Amazon's in-house Graviton CPUs and Trainium accelerators rather than Nvidia-only stacks. The reaction is incremental rather than structural — the AI capex pie is growing, not shrinking — but the headline highlights the slow share-shift toward hyperscaler-custom silicon that has been a multi-quarter narrative. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is fractionally lower in sympathy.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is roughly flat in pre-market as the overnight crude rebound offsets continued concern over the eventual reopening of Hormuz traffic and the diplomatic track's progress. Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are also little changed as the oil-price reversal and the persistent Iran-deal uncertainty pull in opposite directions for the integrated-energy complex.
Macro Calendar Today
| Release | Time (ET) | Consensus | Prior | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 GDP (second estimate, q/q SAAR) | 8:30 a.m. | +2.1% | +2.0% (adv) | Modest upward revision is consensus; consumer-spending mix matters most |
| Q1 GDP Price Index (second estimate) | 8:30 a.m. | +3.6% | +3.6% (adv) | Inflation revision feeds straight into the cut-pricing debate |
| Initial Jobless Claims (week ended May 23) | 8:30 a.m. | 215k | 209k | Holiday week skew; trend remains in the low-200s |
| Continuing Claims (week ended May 16) | 8:30 a.m. | 1.89M | 1.88M | Watch for any drift higher in the four-week average |
| Durable Goods Orders, Apr (preliminary) | 8:30 a.m. | -7.5% | +0.8% | Sharp headline drop expected on Boeing-order normalization |
| Durable Goods ex-Transportation, Apr | 8:30 a.m. | +0.2% | +0.4% | The cleaner underlying-capex signal |
| Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, May | 11:00 a.m. | n/a | +1 | Regional read on factory activity |
The 8:30 a.m. data cluster carries the bulk of the session's macro risk. A softer GDP price index re-engages the cut bid into the front end; a hotter number re-prices yields and pressures the duration-relief move. The headline durable-goods drop is largely mechanical on aircraft ordering, so the ex-transport line is the better signal for capex momentum.
Earnings Today
Before the open: Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dollar General (DG), Foot Locker (FL), Kohl's (KSS), Brown-Forman (BF.B). Best Buy is the read on consumer-electronics demand into the back half and the cleanest sympathy gauge for HP's lowered guide; consensus is $1.23 EPS on $8.83 billion in revenue.
After the close: Dell Technologies (DELL), Costco Wholesale (COST), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Zscaler (ZS), Autodesk (ADSK), Marvell already reported Wednesday. Dell is the marquee print, with consensus around $2.90 EPS on $35.2 billion in revenue and Wall Street focused on the AI server backlog and any commentary on Blackwell shipment cadence. Costco is the other anchor, with consensus near $4.56 EPS on $69.3 billion in revenue and the focus on membership renewal rates and same-store sales momentum.