Indexes

Futures are firmer across the board with the chip rally extending into a second session as SK Hynix joined Micron in the trillion-dollar memory club overnight and the broader AI-infrastructure bid continued to spill across the Pacific. The session ahead carries two scheduled risk events that arrive within minutes of one another: the April 28-29 FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET (the first set under Chair Kevin Warsh) and Salesforce's fiscal Q1 2027 report after the bell. Iran-deal cadence remains the third axis, with Trump telling reporters Tuesday evening that both sides were close to finalizing a framework involving "strong inspections."

In the News

Drivers

1. FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. and the first written record of Warsh-era deliberation. The 8-to-4 vote to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29 was the most contested decision since the Powell pause cycle began, and the discussion text is the first quantified read on how the new Chair framed the policy debate around the Iran energy passthrough. A hawkish minutes — strong language on persistence of inflation pressures, hedged commitment to the disinflation forecast, dismissive treatment of the dissenters' rationale — pulls the 10-year yield back above 4.55% and reopens the duration trade that has supported the small-cap leadership through the past three sessions. A more balanced read where the dissenters' cut path is taken seriously extends the rally; the 4.45% level is the next downside reference if the minutes lean dovish.

2. Salesforce after the close as the AI-software referee. The Q1 FY27 report arrives with a setup of CRM closed below its 50-day moving average for the fourth straight session and options markets implying roughly an 8% move on the print. The current remaining performance obligation growth and any quantified Agentforce monetization commentary are the lines that frame the broader software-multiple debate. A clean beat-and-raise reclaims the $265 shelf and challenges the multiple-compression narrative that hit Intuit and Workday over the past three weeks. A weak quarter puts the 200-day near $245 in play and reopens the question of whether agentic-AI is delivering revenue or only narrative for the established SaaS platforms.

3. The Iran-deal cadence into a still-fragile ceasefire. Trump's Tuesday-evening comment that a deal is "close to finalization" was paired with Araghchi's caution and Rubio's "disagreements over a word, a sentence" framing. A signed memorandum of understanding before the Friday close pulls Brent through $95 toward the $85-$90 long-run zone, hits the integrated-energy cohort one more leg lower, and supports the duration-relief bid that has driven the Russell leadership. A breakdown of talks or a fresh CENTCOM action reverses Tuesday's $98 to $99 Brent move and puts the war-premium bid straight back into the energy complex.

SPY daily — fresh record close above the 7,500 reference; first cash trade through the round-number resistance.

QQQ daily — Nasdaq 100 ETF extending the chip-led record close with broadening participation.

MU daily — Micron Technology adding to Tuesday's trillion-dollar close as SK Hynix joins the same club.

CRM daily — Salesforce closes below the 50-day for the fourth straight session into tonight's Q1 FY27 print.

XOM daily — Exxon below the 50-day with Brent unable to reclaim $100 as the Iran framework remains unsigned.

DELL daily — Dell clearing the 50-day on the Melius target raise and the AI-server share-gain thesis.

Rates, FX, Commodities

The bond market opens with the 10-year yield steady near 4.50% after Tuesday's seven-basis-point parallel decline, holding at the lower end of the recent three-week range as the duration-relief bid persists into the FOMC minutes. The dollar is fractionally lower near 99.10 as risk appetite holds and the war premium continues to leak. Crude is modestly firmer, retracing a small portion of Tuesday's 7.5% plunge as traders weigh the still-unsigned Iran framework against the steady ceasefire holding. Gold is flat after Tuesday's 1.7% war-premium unwind.

Technicals

The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,519.12, its first record close above the 7,500 round-number resistance that had acted as a ceiling for three sessions, and now sits roughly 2.2% above the 50-day moving average near 7,360 and 5.9% above the 200-day near 7,100. First-line support is the 7,500 shelf that has now flipped to support, with 7,470 the next visible step. Resistance steps up to the 7,600 round number, which Goldman Sachs called as an 11% upside year-end target last month. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,656 cleared the 26,500 breakout shelf on a closing basis Tuesday, with 27,000 the next visible target. The 10-year yield at 4.50% sits at the low end of the recent 4.50-4.70% range; a daily close below 4.50% re-engages the duration-friendly rotation that drove Tuesday's Russell leadership. A break back above 4.55% would reopen the 4.65% retest.

Breakouts. Micron Technology (MU) is extending Tuesday's 19% breakout in pre-market trade and pressing through technical resistance with the largest single-day volume confirmation in the company's history; the next visible reference is the projected $950 measured-move target on the trillion-dollar rerating. Goldman Sachs (GS) closed at a fresh all-time high Tuesday on the IPO-tail trade and a continuation toward the $800 measured-move target is in play. Dell Technologies (DELL) is trading above its 50-day moving average pre-market after Melius Research lifted its price target on the AI-server share-gain thesis, clearing the consolidation that has capped price since the April pullback.

Breakdowns. Exxon Mobil (XOM) sits below its 50-day moving average and the lower bound of its three-month range; the next visible support is the 200-day near $108, with the prior-cycle base near $104 below that. UnitedHealth (UNH) closed below its 200-day moving average for the second straight session Tuesday and lost the $480 prior-support shelf that defined the April-May range, with the $445 March low the next reference. Salesforce (CRM) closed below the 50-day moving average for the fourth straight session into tonight's Q1 print; a weak result puts the 200-day near $245 in play.

MU, hourly intraday — Micron extending the trillion-dollar breakout into pre-market with the chip-cohort follow-through after SK Hynix joined the same club overnight.

Top Movers

Gainers

Micron Technology (MU) +5.5%. Trading near $945 pre-market and adding to Tuesday's 19% breakout as SK Hynix's overnight surge into the trillion-dollar club confirmed the cross-Pacific memory-chip rerating. The market is rewarding the disclosure that the company's entire 2026 HBM4 supply is sold out under fixed-price contracts and that the unit-volume math implies a structural pricing-power story for the cycle that follows the initial AI training-capex wave. Western Digital (WDC) and SanDisk are tracking the move in sympathy, and the read-through extends to Marvell Technology (MRVL), which reports after the close tonight on the AI-networking print that frames the broader semiconductor-cohort multiple.

SK Hynix ADR / Samsung sympathy bid. The Kospi closed up 4.84% as SK Hynix gained as much as 11% intraday in Seoul, with Samsung Electronics adding more than 6% in pre-market trade — both names lifted by Micron's Tuesday breakout and the implication that HBM4 pricing has decoupled from the cyclical memory cycle. US-listed semiconductor names with HBM exposure including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) are trading firmly into the open.

Dell Technologies (DELL) +3.5%. Trading near $307 pre-market after Melius Research lifted its price target on the AI-server share-gain thesis, with the analyst flagging accelerating enterprise demand for Dell's PowerEdge platform and the competitive opening created by the Supermicro accounting-related concerns. The Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) read-through is positive, with the stock up about 1.5% pre-market on the AI-server cohort bid.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) +1.8%. Reported fiscal Q2 results before the bell with adjusted EPS coming in firmer than the C$2.80 consensus on capital-markets strength and contained provisions for credit losses. The Canadian-bank cohort is firmer in sympathy as the trading-revenue line beat suggests the wholesale-banking environment that lifted Goldman Sachs's IPO-tail trade extends across North American advisory and markets desks.

Losers

PDD Holdings (PDD) -7%. The Pinduoduo and Temu parent reported Q1 results before US trading with net income attributable to shareholders of RMB 24.5 billion (US$3.5 billion), down 11% year-over-year, and basic EPS of RMB 17.50 versus RMB 19.76 a year earlier. The market is punishing the margin compression and the cautious commentary on Temu's US tariff exposure under the expanded Section 301 framework. The read-through extends to Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD), both modestly lower pre-market as the China-cross-border-consumer trade gets repriced.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) -0.8%. Energy integrateds remain under pressure pre-market as Brent's failure to reclaim $100 confirms the Iran-deal-progress narrative is still pulling the war premium out of crude. Chevron (CVX) is down a similar amount, with Occidental (OXY) the most leveraged name in the cohort. The Hormuz reopening framework reopens the path back toward the $80 long-run reference for Brent if the diplomatic track holds through the weekend.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) -4%. The retailer reported Q1 2026 results before the bell with the conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The pre-market reaction reflects guide caution on the tariff-driven cost passthrough into the second half, echoing the consumer-stress commentary that drove the Walmart guidance miss last Thursday. The implication runs to the broader apparel-and-mall cohort including American Eagle (AEO) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), with Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) also reporting this morning.

Macro Calendar

The 2 p.m. FOMC minutes are the marquee release of the session. The April 28-29 meeting was the first under Chair Warsh and held the funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% on an 8-to-4 vote, with four dissenters favoring a cut. The market is looking for two things in the discussion text: how the hold camp framed the inflation passthrough from the Iran-driven energy spike, and whether the dissenters laid out a path to cuts that the post-meeting dot plot did not yet reflect. A hawkish read reopens the long-end yield back-up that drove last week's wobble; a constructive read on the cut path extends the duration-relief bid that has driven the Russell leadership over the past three sessions. New home sales at 10 a.m. is the secondary release, with the consensus call for a step-down to 695K SAAR consistent with the housing-cooling theme that Tuesday's Case-Shiller print confirmed.

Earnings Today

Before the open. Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported fiscal Q2 results with capital markets driving the beat on stronger advisory and trading revenue. PDD Holdings (PDD) reported Q1 net income down 11% year-over-year with the conference call at 7:30 a.m. ET, with Temu margin commentary the line that frames the China-cross-border-consumer read. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Foot Locker (FL), and AutoZone (AZO) round out the pre-market retail calendar; the same-store sales lines and any guide revisions are the key data for the consumer-stress debate that started with Walmart's miss last week.

After the close. Salesforce (CRM) is the marquee print, with consensus revenue near $11.06 billion and EPS at $3.13 against management's prior guide of $11.03-11.08 billion. Options markets imply roughly an 8% move on the print. The lines that matter to the broader software-multiple debate are current remaining performance obligation growth and any quantified Agentforce or Data Cloud monetization commentary. Snowflake (SNOW) reports the same evening with product revenue growth and the AI-platform commentary the key tells for the broader data-infrastructure cohort. Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Synopsys (SNPS) round out the after-hours semiconductor and software calendar.