Indexes

Cash equities reopen at 9:30 a.m. ET after the long weekend with three sessions of overseas news flow to digest at once. The dominant cross-current is the US Central Command announcement of overnight self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and small boats near the Strait of Hormuz, set against an otherwise constructive backdrop of Iran-deal optimism, last week's S&P 500 record close in cash futures, and a softer 10-year yield. Futures opened firmer overnight and held the bid through the strikes headlines, with the Russell 2000 leading on the duration-relief tailwind.

In the News

Drivers

1. The strikes-versus-deal cadence through Tuesday's cash open. The CENTCOM action and the simultaneous Rubio commentary that negotiations could "take a few days" frame the headline risk for the session. A constructive headline from Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz framework and pulls Brent through $95; a breakdown of talks puts the war-premium bid straight back into crude and adds to the defense-name leadership. The Friday-to-Tuesday gap means three sessions of overseas news flow are repriced into a single open.

2. Consumer confidence at 10 a.m. and the household-sentiment question. The April reading of 86.0 was depressed, with the share of consumers calling a recession over the next 12 months "very likely" rising again. A clean reading above 90 confirms the resilience theme that has carried the eight-week equity rally and supports the Russell leadership. A miss below 85 reopens the consumer-stress debate that the elevated-gasoline tape and the wartime headlines have flagged through April and May.

3. The Zscaler print after the close and the security-software setup. Tonight's Q3 from ZS is the first cohort tell into Wednesday's Salesforce report, with billings growth and net retention the lines that determine whether the defensive-software bid extends. A clean beat-and-raise extends the cyber-and-identity rally that has separated the group from the broader productivity-SaaS cohort; a soft guide reopens the multiple-compression debate that hit Intuit last week.

SPY daily — testing the 7,500 round-number resistance for the first cash trade above the level.

QQQ daily — Nasdaq 100 ETF; chip leadership keeps the breakout setup live.

LMT daily — Lockheed Martin clearing the three-week consolidation shelf on the CENTCOM strikes.

XOM daily — Exxon testing the lower end of its three-month range as Brent slid below $100.

CRM daily — Salesforce sits below the 50-day moving average into Wednesday's Q1 print.

Rates, FX, Commodities

The bond market reopens after the Memorial Day close with the 10-year yield trading around 4.51%, roughly seven basis points lower than Friday's settle as the duration-relief bid persisted through the weekend. The dollar is steady near 99 after fading its six-week high. Gold is giving back a slice of its safe-haven premium on the Iran-deal track, while WTI and Brent are bouncing modestly off Monday's plunge as the overnight strikes complicate the war-premium-unwind narrative.

Technicals

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,473.47, roughly 1.5% above the 50-day moving average near 7,360 and 5.3% above the 200-day near 7,100. The next visible resistance is the 7,500 round number, which the index briefly cleared on an intraday basis on May 14 at 7,517.12 before fading. Futures pointing to an open near 7,533 would mark the first cash trade above 7,500 if breadth participates. The Nasdaq 100 sits inside its prior range with 26,500 as the level that would confirm extension of the breakout. The 10-year at 4.51% has cleared the lower edge of the recent 4.55–4.70% three-week range, and a sustained hold below 4.55% re-engages the duration-friendly rotation that drove last week's Russell leadership. A break back through 4.55% would reopen the 4.65% retest.

LMT, hourly intraday — Lockheed Martin is the most consequential single-stock breakout of the pre-market session, clearing the recent shelf near $525 on the overnight CENTCOM strikes.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Lockheed Martin (LMT) — Trading +2.0% pre-market to $533.24, clearing the $525 consolidation shelf that has capped price for three weeks. A hold above $525 on the cash open sets up a run at the April high near $545; first support steps down to the 50-day moving average near $510.

Nvidia (NVDA) — Up roughly 1.6% pre-market and pressing the upper end of its recent range as the AI-infrastructure bid that drove last week's record Q1 print continues. A close above the prior $182 intraday high would resume the trend; the 20-day moving average near $172 is the first defensive line.

Breakdowns

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Sits at the lower end of its three-month range after Brent slid below $100 for the first time since early May. The 200-day moving average near $108 is the next visible support; loss of that level opens the post-November gap-fill toward $103.

Salesforce (CRM) — Closed below the 50-day moving average for the third straight session into Wednesday's Q1 print. A weak result puts the 200-day near $245 in play; a clean beat-and-raise in the Workday mold could reclaim the $265 shelf on the open.

Top Movers

Gainers

Lockheed Martin (LMT) +2.0%. Leading the defense-prime complex higher after the overnight CENTCOM strikes on Iranian missile sites reasserted the war-premium bid that had compressed through last week's deal-track optimism. The setup is supported by the FY2027 defense budget proposal of roughly $1.5 trillion and a backlog above $170 billion as of late 2025. The read-through extends to Northrop Grumman (NOC) up 0.72% to $555.58 and RTX up 1.0% to $177.01, with the longer-dated F-35 and missile-defense procurement cycle independent of any near-term ceasefire framework.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) +10.27%. Surged on confirmation it has been named the prime contractor for operations of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera, NASA's flagship lunar mapping instrument. The award lands ahead of the June 12 SpaceX Nasdaq listing and reinforces the small-cap space-and-launch group that has rallied on the SpaceX IPO halo. The implication runs to Rocket Lab (RKLB), Redwire (RDW), and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), each of which has tracked LUNR on every NASA contract milestone since the program announcement.

Nvidia (NVDA) +1.6%. Tracking the Asian-semiconductor bid that drove Samsung and SK Hynix higher on the Kospi session and tightening DRAM-supply commentary. The reaction extends the post-Q1 momentum after Nvidia's record May 20 print, and the read-through into Marvell (MRVL) up roughly 2% pre-market is meaningful given Marvell reports Wednesday after the close. Micron (MU) is also tracking the memory bid into the same session.

Zscaler (ZS) +1.9%. Trading at $185.85 pre-market into tonight's Q3 fiscal-2026 print, with consensus calling for EPS of $1.01 on revenue of $834.92 million. The setup is the security-software referee into Wednesday's CRM report, with billings growth and net retention the key lines the desks will watch for read-through to Okta (Thursday) and the broader cyber group. A clean beat-and-raise extends the defensive-software bid that has held the cohort firmer than the productivity-software names.

Losers

Exxon Mobil (XOM) -0.9%. The integrated-major group is the cleanest loser of the pre-market session as Brent's sub-$100 print resets the breakeven economics for US shale and erodes the war-premium that supported the cohort through Q1. Chevron (CVX) is also down roughly 0.8%, with Occidental (OXY) off 1.2% as the most leveraged name to crude. The longer-dated capital-allocation story is intact; the near-term setup turns on whether the strikes-versus-deal cadence stabilizes the $95–$100 Brent zone or extends the leg lower.

AutoZone (AZO) -0.9%. Drifting lower into this morning's Q3 fiscal-2026 print, with consensus at $36.13 EPS on $4.86 billion revenue. The company announced a Google Cloud partnership last week that the Street read as incremental rather than transformative. Same-store sales growth and DIY-versus-commercial mix are the key lines, with the read-through to O'Reilly (ORLY) and Advance Auto (AAP) tracking the result.

Intuit (INTU) -0.6%. Extending last week's restructuring-driven drawdown as the software-multiple-compression debate stays live into the CRM print Wednesday. The stock is now down more than 40% year to date, and the technical damage from the 200-day moving average loss will take multiple sessions of constructive base-building to repair. Position-trimming into the long weekend ahead of the cohort prints is consistent with the move.

Macro Calendar

The Case-Shiller release at 9 a.m. is the first read on March home prices and the housing-disinflation track that has cooled to a +0.9% year-over-year pace, the slowest annual reading since July 2023. Consumer confidence at 10 a.m. is the more market-relevant print and the first read on whether the elevated-gasoline tape and the wartime headlines have started to bind into household sentiment; April registered 86.0, and a clean reading above 90 confirms the resilience theme that has carried the eight-week equity rally. The 5-year auction at 1 p.m. is the first auction with three sessions of news flow to absorb and will set the tone for Wednesday's 7-year.

Earnings Today

Before the open. Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported fiscal Q2 results with adjusted EPS of C$1.89 against consensus of C$1.85 and revenue of C$6.28 billion up 2% year-over-year, with provisions for credit losses contained at C$1.12 billion. Capital markets contributed C$1.2 billion on stronger advisory and trading. AutoZone (AZO) reports Q3 with consensus calling for $36.13 EPS on $4.86 billion revenue; the same-store sales line is the key tell for the broader DIY-and-aftermarket auto-parts group.

After the close. Zscaler (ZS), Box (BOX), and HEICO (HEI) report. Zscaler is the headline name, with billings and current remaining performance obligations the key lines that frame the security-software cohort heading into Okta's Thursday print. Box is the mid-cap software read into Wednesday's Salesforce report. HEICO is the aerospace-aftermarket name with consensus at $1.33 EPS on $1.24 billion revenue, reflecting roughly 19% year-over-year earnings growth.