Ringside · Pre-Bell · June 24
- Whether the chip bounce sticks.
- Bank stress tests after the bell.
- PCE and the September question.
Indexes
The chip names that cracked on Tuesday are clawing back ground before the open. Nasdaq 100 futures point higher after a buyback pledge from Samsung and a US listing plan from SK Hynix steadied the group in Asia, where South Korea's Kospi jumped more than three percent a day after its near-ten-percent crash. Dow futures sit a touch lower, the reverse of Tuesday's session, when blue chips held while the semiconductors took the damage.
| Futures | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,452.50 | +0.07% | Indicated a shade higher |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,824.00 | +0.27% | Chips lead the bounce |
| YM (Dow) | 52,034.00 | -0.08% | Blue chips ease back |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 3,003.20 | +0.13% | Small caps firm |
Tuesday's cash session set the stage. A memory-chip scare out of Seoul knocked the Nasdaq 100 down more than three percent and the Composite past two, while the Dow held nearly even and the Russell 2000 slipped back beneath the 3,000 mark it had cleared for the first time a day earlier.
| Tuesday close | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,365.46 | -1.44% | Tech-led decline |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,587.04 | -2.21% | Chips led lower |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,347.27 | -3.29% | Worst of the majors |
| Dow Jones | 51,666.84 | -0.09% | Defensives offset tech |
| Russell 2000 | 2,975.48 | -0.96% | Back under 3,000 |
Asia split along the lines of the news. Korea roared back as its chipmakers rallied, Tokyo eased after a strong run, and Europe opened on the back foot, with the German market giving up more than a percent.
| Global | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 8,471.02 | +3.26% | Chipmakers rebound |
| Nikkei 225 | 69,174.97 | -1.09% | Tokyo eases |
| Hang Seng | 23,412.18 | +0.33% | Modestly higher |
| FTSE 100 | 10,441.02 | -0.13% | London steady |
| DAX | 24,653.97 | -1.13% | Frankfurt softer |
| CAC 40 | 8,356.82 | -0.09% | Paris near even |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,218.58 | -0.42% | Broad Europe lower |
In the News
Drivers
1. Whether the chip bounce sticks. The rebound in memory and AI-silicon names rests on a single overnight catalyst out of Korea, and it runs straight into the one report that can confirm or deny it: Micron after the close. A reassuring read on memory pricing would turn Tuesday's scare into a buying opportunity, while any hint that supply is catching up to demand would hand the sellers their case. With options pricing a double-digit move, the report sets the tone for the whole group, not one stock. Was Tuesday's drop an overreaction, or the opening move in a broader unwind of the year's biggest winners?
2. Bank stress tests after the bell. The Federal Reserve's results for 32 large lenders arrive at 4 p.m. Eastern, and while the Fed has said this year's scores will not change capital requirements, strong marks would clear the way for the dividend and buyback announcements that usually follow within days. Financials have quietly outperformed through the tech wobble, so the group goes in with the wind at its back.
3. PCE and the September question. Thursday delivers the first inflation read since policy turned hawkish under Kevin Warsh, and with futures now leaning toward a September increase, traders have positioned for a firm number. That makes a cool print the real surprise risk, since it would land on a market set up for the opposite.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Treasury yields sit close to Tuesday's closing levels ahead of Thursday's inflation report, and the dollar has firmed a touch. The action is in commodities: crude keeps sliding as Iranian supply returns, while gold has slipped beneath $4,100 to a seven-month low under the weight of a harder Fed line and a stronger greenback.
| Rates / Vol | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.13 | -1.80% | Easing as the bounce takes hold |
| 2-Year | 4.21% | — | Near a cycle high |
| 10-Year | 4.49% | — | Mid the 4.20%-4.55% band |
| 30-Year | 4.94% | — | Long end steady |
| 2s10s | +28 bp | — | Modestly positive curve |
| DXY | 101.68 | +0.22% | Firmer again |
Crude has surrendered nearly all of the premium that the spring conflict in the Middle East put into the barrel, and copper's pullback echoes the growth worry that ran through Tuesday's chip selling. Every commodity quote below was refreshed this morning rather than held over from the Tuesday settle.
| Commodities | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $71.77 | -1.81% | Iran supply returning |
| Brent Crude | $75.55 | -1.76% | Tracks WTI lower |
| Gold | $4,078.70 | -1.17% | Seven-month low |
| Natural Gas | $3.22 | +0.78% | Firmer |
| Copper | $6.07 | -0.91% | Growth-risk signal |
Technicals
Tuesday's selloff left the indexes with their first floor not far below. The S&P 500 settled at 7,365.46, beneath the 20-day line up at 7,470 yet holding some fifty points clear of the rising 50-day at 7,316, the level that would have to break before the early-June breakout is back in doubt. The Nasdaq 100 took the deeper damage, losing both its 20- and 50-day moving averages on Tuesday and finishing near the base of its month-long range. The ten-year yield at 4.49% holds the middle of its recent 4.20%-to-4.55% corridor; a decisive move above 4.55% would carry it to the spring's peak and begin to press on equities. The morning's sharpest individual story is Micron, which heads into tonight's report sitting below the averages it gave up on Tuesday; its hourly chart is below.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Walmart (WMT): Tuesday's flight to safety carried it to $119.42, just under the $120 ceiling that has capped the stock since spring; a clean push through would mark a record for the retailer.
Marvell (MRVL): out front in the chip rebound, climbing toward the 20-day near $290 it lost on Tuesday; reclaiming that average would argue the scare was a one-session affair.
Breakdowns
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Tuesday's rout cost it both the 20- and 50-day averages, and the premarket bounce to near $526 still leaves it underneath them; the May base near $500 is the next floor down.
Nvidia (NVDA): the group's leader is parked on the $200 mark it closed at Tuesday; hold it and the uptrend stays intact, lose it and the 50-day near $190 comes into view.
Top Movers
The pattern reverses Tuesday's. The hardest-hit chip names are leading the bounce, while the defensives that absorbed Tuesday's flight to safety give a little back.
Gainers
Micron (MU) is up about 3.5% to near $1,089 in premarket trade, leading the chip rebound on the day it reports fiscal third-quarter results after the close. The overnight spark came from Korea, where Samsung's buyback pledge and SK Hynix's US listing plan eased the memory-pricing fear that wiped 13% off the stock on Tuesday. Analysts polled by FactSet look for earnings near $20.83 a share on revenue close to $35.75 billion, and the options market is pricing a move of roughly 17% once the report lands. What management says about high-bandwidth memory demand on the call is what the wider group will trade on.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is up about 2% near $208, joining the broad recovery in chip shares after Tuesday's indiscriminate selling. Intel (INTC) is higher by a similar margin near $135, while Nvidia (NVDA) firmed even though it never reports memory pricing of its own.
Losers
FedEx (FDX) is down about 7% near $294, sliding the morning after its fiscal fourth-quarter report, its first quarterly numbers as an independent parcel business since spinning off the freight unit on June 1. The quarter itself beat, with adjusted earnings of $6.31 against the $5.96 estimate and revenue of $25.0 billion, but management's fiscal 2027 guidance of $16.90 to $18.10 a share pointed to slower growth ahead, and the stock is being marked down for it. The reaction sets a cautious tone for the industrials heading into a quieter stretch of the calendar.
Newmont (NEM) trades more than 2% lower near $95, dragged by gold's drop to a seven-month low, the metal's slide leaving the miners without their usual cushion.
The defensives cool. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Merck, among the consumer and health-care names that drew Tuesday's flight to safety, each eased a few tenths as money rotated back toward risk.
Macro Calendar
Today's calendar finally carries some weight before the week's defining inflation print. The May count of new-home sales is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, where economists expect a modest bounce off April's soft 622,000 annual pace, a corner of the economy still pinned by stubborn mortgage rates. The larger Fed event lands after the close with the stress-test release. Most of the week's risk, though, rides on Thursday's May PCE deflator, the inflation yardstick the Fed weighs most, seen rising 0.5% on the month with a yearly core rate around 3.4%. With hike odds already repriced, a downside surprise there would rattle the market far more than the firm reading it expects.
| This session | Consensus | Note |
|---|---|---|
| MBA mortgage applications | — | Weekly, rate-sensitive |
| New home sales (May) | ≈635K | vs April's 622K |
| Fed bank stress tests | 4 p.m. ET | 32 large lenders |
| PCE, m/m (Thu) | +0.5% | The week's main event |
Earnings Today
The reporting calendar runs light but front-loads the week's headline name into tonight.
Before the open: Paychex (PAYX) closes its fiscal year with fourth-quarter results, a read on small-business hiring and wage trends through the spring.
After the close: Micron (MU) is the session's marquee report, covered above, with its read on memory pricing set to move the entire chip group. Jefferies (JEF) also reports, an early look at investment-banking and trading activity ahead of the big banks next month.