Indexes

Stock futures point to a recovery open after Wednesday's 953-point Dow drop, with the US military saying its second night of strikes on Iran is complete and crude handing back almost three dollars a barrel.

In the News

Drivers

1. The ECB's first increase in nearly three years. The decision lands at 8:15 AM ET with a quarter-point move to 2.25% priced as near-certain and money markets carrying three more increases by year-end, so the statement and Christine Lagarde's 8:45 press conference hold the real information. Positioning leans hawkish; the surprise would be language framing the move as one-time insurance instead of the opening step of a campaign. The euro at $1.1531 and the long end of the US curve will grade the guidance first.

2. May producer prices at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus calls for a 0.7% monthly rise after April's 1.4% jump, and Caterpillar's 6.3% Wednesday drop already showed what accelerating input costs do to industrial margins. The report says whether that pressure is cresting or still compounding.

3. Whether the market can absorb Oracle's bill. The premarket drop near 10% prices a $95 billion capital-spending year funded partly with new shares, one session after Super Micro lost more than a fifth of its value for a smaller version of the same plan. How much contracted backlog is enough to justify spending that arrives years before the revenue does? Adobe's report tonight tests the other side of the trade, whether software can sell AI rather than be displaced by it, and SpaceX, the largest IPO in history, begins trading against exactly this backdrop tomorrow morning. A $1.77 trillion debut absorbing $75 billion of fresh demand on a nervous week is its own kind of stress test.

SPY daily: the index ETF sits between the 20-day overhead and the 50-day near $717 below.

QQQ daily: Wednesday's 2% drop set up this morning's premarket bid.

Oracle daily: Wednesday's $201.26 close precedes a premarket indication near $180.

Adobe daily: down about 30% this year heading into tonight's fiscal second-quarter report.

Caterpillar daily: the 50-day near $847 sits just under Wednesday's $856.16 close.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Treasuries open the morning split the same way Wednesday's inflation report left them: the short end holding onto core relief while the long end carries the energy worry.

Crude's pullback is the session's clearest risk signal: both benchmarks fell close to 3% once the US military announced its latest strikes were finished, a sequence traders read as a window for negotiations to resume. Gold's 0.4% uptick follows a slide of more than 11% in a month, with rate expectations and a dollar above 100 still blocking any haven bid.

Technicals

Support sits close underneath this morning's bounce: the S&P 500's Wednesday close at 7,266.99 is less than 1% above the 50-day average near 7,213, with the 20-day line near 7,470 the first ceiling on any recovery attempt. The Nasdaq 100 carries the same structure at lower altitude: 28,508.03 at the close, the 50-day near 27,790 below and the 20-day around 29,630 overhead. In Treasuries, the 10-year at 4.54% trades within 13 basis points of its mid-May high at 4.67%, and a close through that level would hand control of equities back to the bond market; the 2-year at 4.12% sits at the bottom of its one-month span per Trading Economics. Oracle is the chart that matters most today, with a premarket indication near $180 set to gap the stock through its $200 shelf at the open.

Oracle, hourly: Wednesday's $201.26 close came before an overnight drop of roughly 10% on the fiscal 2027 spending forecast.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Chevron (CVX) — sits on its reclaimed 20-day and 50-day cluster near $188 after closing at $189.80. Wednesday's intraday high at $192.68 is the first hurdle; beyond it the spring peak near $209 returns to the chart.

Coca-Cola (KO) — defends the $82 shelf it cleared on the way to Wednesday's 52-week-high close at $83.59. As long as that level holds, the staples leader keeps setting records while the cyclical groups repair damage.

Breakdowns

Oracle (ORCL) — indicated near $180 in premarket from a $201.26 close, a gap that would surrender the $200 level held since spring. The 200-day average is the next reference below, and a same-day reclaim of $190 would be the first sign the reaction overshot.

Caterpillar (CAT) — closed at $856.16 after Wednesday's slide through the 20-day line, leaving the 50-day near $847 about 1% below. That average is where the year's monster run either finds its footing or rolls over.

Top Movers

Gainers

Nvidia (NVDA) closed Wednesday at $200.42 after falling 3.7% with the semiconductor group, and is indicated higher in premarket trading, Barron's reports, as money returns to the names it abandoned for two sessions. The $5 trillion market value it held early in the week now sits just overhead.

Micron (MU) joins the premarket bid after closing Wednesday at $891.88. The stock remains the market's highest-beta expression of the memory cycle in both directions, and Monday's reclaim of the 20-day average near $940 gave way in Wednesday's selling; taking that line back is the first task.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is bouncing with the group after Wednesday's 22.4% collapse to $29.27 on its $7 billion dilution plan.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) enter the session with fuel relief after crude's near-3% retreat. The carriers closed Wednesday at $76.47 and $102.78, down 5.5% and 5.4% respectively on the energy repricing, and a calmer barrel gives the group its first breathing room of the week.

Losers

Oracle (ORCL) is down roughly 10% in premarket trading after attaching a capital-spending forecast of up to $95 billion for fiscal 2027 to a fourth quarter that beat on every headline. Revenue rose 21% to $19.2 billion, adjusted earnings of $2.11 a share cleared the $1.96 estimate, and contracted backlog swelled to $638 billion, a figure management noted now exceeds the equivalent disclosures at Google and Microsoft. The market's objection is the funding: a planned $40 billion in new debt and equity this fiscal year, including $20 billion of open-market share sales, to build data centers years ahead of the revenue they will carry. That makes Oracle the second company this week, after Super Micro, marked down for paying for AI growth with other people's shares.

SAP (SAP) trades lower in Frankfurt and in New York premarket, per Investing.com, as Oracle's plan raises the spending bar for every enterprise-software company chasing AI capacity. The stock closed at $170.30 in New York on Wednesday.

Macro Calendar

Producer prices answer what Wednesday's consumer report left open: how much energy cost is still moving through the pipeline before it reaches shelves. The curve is positioned for a warm number, so the genuine surprise would be a cool one. Jobless claims get a look only if they break the 220K-to-225K groove they have held for a month.

Earnings Today

Before Open: Nothing on the morning calendar carries index-level weight, which leaves the session to the macro releases until the close.

After Close: Adobe (ADBE), Lennar (LEN), RH (RH). Adobe is the one to read closely: consensus calls for earnings of $5.81 per share on $6.45 billion in revenue, the stock has lost about 30% this year on fears that generative AI replaces creative-software subscriptions, and options price a swing of up to 8.5% by week's end per Yahoo Finance. Lennar's quarter doubles as a housing check with the 30-year Treasury above 5%; options imply a move near 4.3%. RH extends the housing chain to its high end.