Indexes

Futures are firm to start June after the strongest monthly gain of the year in tech, with Dow contracts leading on a deep bench of cyclical participation and the Nasdaq carried by a Nvidia-led keynote out of Taiwan. Asia closed broadly higher with Seoul printing a record on Samsung's HBM4E sample shipment. Europe is grinding higher into the U.S. open.

In the News

Drivers

1. ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET. With Chicago PMI at a four-year high last week and the Caixin China print at 52.2 overnight, the bar for an upside surprise is elevated. A reading above 53 would extend the global manufacturing acceleration story and lift two-year yields a few basis points. A reading at or below 51 would re-engage the late-summer rate-cut narrative and likely flatten the curve.

2. HPE earnings after the close. Hewlett Packard Enterprise is gapping more than 12% higher on the Nvidia keynote, which has front-loaded expectations into tonight's report. The market wants explicit AI server backlog numbers and visible margin progress in the server segment. A clean beat with raised guide would extend the AI infrastructure trade across the broader enterprise hardware cohort; a miss or a hedged guide would unwind the pre-market gain quickly and put a temporary lid on the broader move.

3. Oil and the Iran memorandum. Brent and West Texas Intermediate rallied about 3% overnight as the ceasefire memorandum entered its final confirmation phase at the White House. A signed extension would press Brent back toward $88 and feed the disinflation pulse the Fed has been waiting for. A breakdown in the talks would push crude back toward the April peak and reintroduce the energy-inflation problem that derailed the rate-cut path earlier this year.

S&P 500 (SPY), daily: seventh straight advance, sitting above the 7,500 shelf with 7,600 the immediate pivot.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), daily: 50-day moving average above the 200-day in a clean golden-cross posture; futures bid into the open.

Nvidia (NVDA), daily: the Computex catalyst extends the multi-quarter uptrend.

IBM, daily: gap through multi-month consolidation on the AI software re-rating.

Intel (INTC), daily: pre-market gap loses 50-day moving average near $24; next support at the 200-day near $22.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), daily: gapping out of a multi-week base into tonight's earnings.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Yields are stable into the open, the dollar is flat-to-firm, and energy is the headline mover after a 3% overnight bounce on lingering ceasefire uncertainty. Gold remains in its high-altitude regime above $4,500. Every commodity quoted below was re-checked against a current feed at the time of writing.

Technicals

The broad benchmark closed Friday at 7,580, far above its 50-day moving average near 7,039 and its 200-day near 6,825, with first support at the 7,520 shelf and open air toward the 7,600 round number that capped Friday's high at 7,599. The Nasdaq Composite tagged 27,094 intraday Friday before easing to 26,973, leaving 27,000 as the immediate pivot for the open. Two-year yields at 4.00% sit at the lower edge of their range; a sustained move below would re-engage the rate-cut bid in the front end. The 10-year at 4.45% remains mid its 4.40%-to-4.60% spring band; a break above 4.55% would re-open the year's highs and weigh on long-duration equity. Among individual names, Arm Holdings (ARM) is the day's defining technical event with a gap to fresh all-time highs that leaves no overhead resistance. IBM and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are gapping out of multi-month consolidations on heavy volume. On the downside, Intel (INTC) is breaking back below its 50-day average near $24 with the 200-day at $22 as the next downside reference; Qualcomm (QCOM) is losing its post-earnings shelf near $172 and looks set to test the spring low at $158.

Arm Holdings (ARM), hourly: gap-and-go to fresh all-time highs on the Nvidia keynote, the morning's defining technical move.

Top Movers

Gainers

Arm Holdings (ARM) is gapping about 13.5% higher pre-market after Nvidia's Jensen Huang revealed at Computex that the company's new N1X processor for personal computers is built around ARM cores, validating ARM's reach into the Windows PC ecosystem beyond mobile. The market is rewarding the royalty stream implication: every N1X-equipped laptop from Microsoft, Dell, HP, ASUS, Lenovo, and MSI sends a license payment to ARM. Watch for analyst upgrades in the next 24-48 hours and a follow-through bid in fellow Computex beneficiaries Marvell (MRVL) and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC).

ServiceNow (NOW) is up 14.4% pre-market as the software complex caught the AI infrastructure bid that has dominated semis for the last two months. The thesis is straightforward: the larger the installed base of Nvidia-accelerated compute, the more enterprise workflow software gets pulled along. Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) should sympathy-trade higher into the open, with the Software ETF (IGV) likely outperforming the broader Nasdaq.

IBM is gapping 12.7% higher on the same software re-rating, with the additional kicker that the company's consulting and watsonx bundles position it to capture enterprise AI deployment budgets. The market is finally giving credit to the mainframe-as-AI-substrate story Arvind Krishna has been pitching for two years. Watch for read-across to Accenture (ACN) and Cognizant (CTSH) on the services side.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is up 12.6% pre-market and reports earnings tonight after the close. The Nvidia keynote sets a high bar for the conference call: investors will want to hear specific AI server backlog numbers, Juniper integration progress, and gross margin trajectory in the server segment. A guide raise on AI infrastructure demand would extend the move; anything less than a clear margin path could see the pre-market gain unwind.

Nvidia (NVDA) is up about 2% pre-market, a measured reaction given the breadth of the Computex announcements. Beyond the N1X PC processor, CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the Vera CPU is in full production with OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX as named customers, and detailed the next-generation Rubin GPU roadmap. The reaction is muted because expectations were elevated and because some of the news was already in the stock; the bigger move is rippling outward into the broader AI value chain.

Losers

Qualcomm (QCOM) is down 9.5% pre-market on the most direct competitive hit. The Snapdragon X Elite chips were the original Windows-on-ARM bet that Microsoft used to launch its Copilot+ PC platform two years ago; Nvidia's N1X with a Microsoft co-design effectively replaces that lane. The question for the next quarter is whether Qualcomm can hold automotive and IoT growth fast enough to offset PC share loss.

Intel (INTC) is off 6.5% pre-market. Nvidia's entry into PC processors is a direct strike at Intel's foundational revenue base, and it comes with Microsoft endorsement, which historically determines mainstream Windows hardware design wins. The stock had been working back to its 50-day moving average; today's gap puts that recovery on hold and shifts attention to the June 2 investor day, where management will need to articulate a credible response.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down 4.1% pre-market, the smaller cut because AMD's primary AI exposure is on the data center side rather than client PCs. Still, the company loses share of voice in the Windows AI PC conversation, and the Ryzen AI roadmap will face renewed scrutiny on the next earnings call.

Macro Calendar

ISM Manufacturing is the day's economic centerpiece. Friday's Chicago PMI hit 62.7, a four-year high, raising the bar for an upside surprise on the national number. A reading above 53 would extend the manufacturing recovery story and likely lift yields modestly. A reading below 51 would put a soft-data bid back into duration and could press the dollar lower. Construction spending typically clears in seconds but matters for the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker, which has been drifting higher into mid-2.0% Q2 territory.

Earnings Today

Before the open: Science Applications International (SAIC).

After the close: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo Technology (CRDO).

HPE is the marquee print of the day given its pre-market move and the Nvidia overlay. Watch for AI server orders, Juniper integration commentary, and any change to the full-year guide. Credo is a smaller-cap AI infrastructure name that has tracked Nvidia tightly and will offer a real-time temperature check on hyperscaler optical and connectivity spending.