Indexes

A chip selloff that started in Asia is pressing on the US open. South Korea's Kospi sank nearly 10% and tripped its circuit breakers twice overnight, Tokyo lost more than 3%, and US futures are tracking the semiconductor names lower. The Nasdaq 100 contract is off close to two percent, while Dow futures sit just above Monday's close as money keeps leaning toward the value and small-cap corners that led the rotation a day earlier.

The reference is Monday's cash session, when a megacap-led slide masked a broad tape: six sectors rose and the Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower.

Asia bore the brunt overnight, where the memory-chip names led the damage; Europe is softer but steadier.

In the News

Drivers

1. How far the chip selloff travels. Korea's circuit-breaker session and SK Hynix's HBM4 walk-back have hit the AI-memory trade that led the market all year, and the US chips are following: Micron is down close to 9% premarket into its Wednesday report, with Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom and Nvidia all lower. The open will show whether this is a position-clearing shakeout in the most crowded corner of the market or the first crack in the leadership that has carried the indexes. Monday's move into small caps and value gives the money somewhere to go, and Dow futures pointing higher while the Nasdaq points down more than a percent says the rotation is still doing the work. Is this the washout that resets a stretched trade, or the start of something broader?

2. Oil and Friday's signing. Crude sits near three-month lows with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen the moment the deal is signed Friday, and the premium the conflict built has nearly all come out. Watch $73 on WTI: a clean break invites the next leg lower, while any breakdown in the Lebanon talks that delays the signing would put a bid back under the barrel.

3. PCE against a hawkish market. Thursday's inflation reading is the first since the Fed's harder turn, and with Deutsche Bank and BofA now expecting a September hike, positioning has moved that way too. A firm print keeps the dollar bid and gold heavy; a cool one finally gives the doves something to point at.

SPY (S&P 500), daily: Monday's fractional dip held the 20-day; futures point lower into the open.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), daily: the futures drop would set the index back toward its 50-day.

Semiconductors (SMH), daily: the group rolling over as the Asian memory selloff reaches US trading.

Newmont (NEM), daily: back under the 200-day as gold drops with the broad market.

Microsoft (MSFT), daily: the one large-cap platform holding a bid through the selloff.

Rates, FX, Commodities

Every asset is dancing to the same tune this morning: a hawkish shift in Fed expectations. Deutsche Bank and BofA moved their calls to a September increase, the dollar pushed to a one-year high, and gold gave back close to 2%. Treasuries sit at Monday's higher levels, the two-year near a fresh cycle high and the ten-year pinned to the top of its three-week range.

WTI has surrendered most of the premium the Iran conflict built, sitting near three-month lows with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen under Friday's deal. Gold fell with the rest, an unusual day when the metal dropped alongside stocks rather than catching a bid, while copper's slide tells the same growth-risk story as the chip rout.

Technicals

The benchmarks come in with room above and below. At 7,472.79, the S&P 500 sits a touch under its 20-day average near 7,485 and roughly 1.8% beneath the early-June record high of 7,609.78. Deeper support runs at the 50-day, down at 7,316, the first real floor if stocks open soft. The Nasdaq 100 finished at 30,347.08 inside its range, and this morning's drop in the futures would set it back toward the 50-day near 29,600, putting the month's lows in play. Small caps carry the other side of the story: the Russell 2000's 3,004.40 record is the level bulls now have to defend, and premarket futures already point back below it. Ten-year yields at 4.51% press the top of a 4.20% to 4.55% band, and a break above 4.55% would lift them to the spring high and start to bite at conditions equities have waved off. The sharpest single move belongs to the memory names, where Micron (MU) has shed close to 9% premarket; its hourly chart sits below.

Micron (MU), hourly: a steep premarket gap lower as the chip selloff out of Asia reached the memory names.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Microsoft (MSFT) — the one megacap catching a bid, holding above its 20-day near $362 while the chip group sells; a push through the $372 area keeps it leading the platforms higher.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — back atop its 50-day near $135 as value and energy draw the rotation money, even with crude near three-month lows; the June high near $140 is first resistance.

Breakdowns

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — reversing hard from last week's $462 breakout, the level it cleared now lost; the 50-day near $440 is the next test, with premarket trade already below $445.

Broadcom (AVGO) — slipping under its 50-day near $400 in premarket trade, the first support break since spring; next support is the $375 shelf.

Top Movers

The damage is concentrated in semiconductors, where the Asian selloff handed every chip name a lower open; the green is scattered across defensives, value and energy.

Gainers

Microsoft (MSFT) is up about 1% premarket, the rare megacap buyers are willing to hold while the rest of big tech sells. With less direct exposure to the memory and GPU trade now in question, it is drawing the money that wants to stay in large-cap technology without owning the epicenter.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is higher by a few tenths even as crude eases, the energy majors steady as money rotates out of growth and into value.

Losers

Micron (MU) is down close to 9% premarket into Wednesday's results, the hardest-hit US chip name after Samsung and SK Hynix were crushed in Seoul. The shares set a record at $1,211 only on Monday, so the report now lands on a stock that has shed a chunk of its momentum overnight. Listen for guidance on high-bandwidth memory pricing on the call, the exact business the Korean news just put in question.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is off about 5% premarket, the US listing catching down to its Asian peers after the foundry leader spent last week at record highs. The selloff reads as positioning in the most crowded trade rather than anything specific to its order book.

Broadcom (AVGO) is lower by roughly 4%, swept into the same de-risking despite its central place in the AI buildout.

Nvidia (NVDA) is down about 3%, the group's leader proving no shelter when the whole trade comes off.

Newmont (NEM) is off more than 3% as gold's slide pushes the miner back below its 200-day average near $102; the metal falling with equities leaves the gold names without their usual cover.

Carnival (CCL) beat and raised its full-year outlook, lifting its EBITDA target to $7 billion and drawing price-target increases from Citi, Melius and Stifel, yet the shares eased near 2% premarket. It was a quarter good enough to lift guidance, delivered on a morning with no appetite for good news.

Macro Calendar

Today brings the first real data of the week before Thursday's main event. S&P Global's flash purchasing-manager surveys for June land mid-morning, with the manufacturing index seen easing to 54.8 from 55.1 and services to 51.0 from 50.7; a services number under 50 would feed the slowdown worry. New home sales for May and the Richmond Fed's factory gauge follow at 10 a.m. Eastern. The week still turns on Thursday's May personal-consumption-expenditures index, the inflation measure the central bank watches most closely, where the consensus looks for a firm 0.5% monthly headline and core near 3.4%. After the hawkish turn and two more banks moving to a September hike, a soft surprise would carry more weight than another hot one the market is already braced for.

Earnings Today

The week's reports begin in earnest today, with a cruise-line beat already out before the open and the marquee name due after the close.

Before the open: Carnival (CCL) reported revenue of $6.17 billion and net income of $275 million, up more than half from a year ago, with net yields running ahead of guidance and the full-year outlook lifted.

After the close: FedEx (FDX) delivers its fiscal fourth-quarter numbers, the first as a standalone parcel company after spinning off the freight arm on June 1. Wall Street looks for earnings per share near $5.91 on revenue near $24 billion, up from $4.89 and $22.2 billion a year earlier, with the new Amazon delivery agreement and the DRIVE cost-cut program the main subjects for the call. Micron (MU) is up next, reporting Wednesday evening.