Ringside · Pre-Bell · July 27
- Brent crude fell 8.1% to $88.91 after the United States and Iran paused strikes.
- Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.65%, with Broadcom leading on Samsung's $200 billion supply pact.
- Rate decision lands Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern; futures markets put no-change at roughly 68%.
Indexes
Two nights without American airstrikes on Iran were enough to reprice everything that had been trading on the war. Washington suspended a 13-night campaign late Friday without announcing it, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters over the weekend that Tehran would hold its own fire for as long as the pause lasts. Crude gapped lower at Sunday evening's open and equity futures took the other side, with semiconductors leading a rebound after two sessions of heavy selling. Every major Asian index that traded Monday closed higher apart from Jakarta, and Germany leads the European majors.
| Futures | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,522.50 | +1.01% | Implies a cash open near the averages |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 28,748.75 | +1.65% | Philadelphia chip index fell 4.3% Friday |
| YM (Dow) | 52,669.00 | +1.05% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,980.10 | +1.32% |
| Overseas | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 64,931.19 | +0.51% | |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,207.18 | +0.98% | |
| Kospi (South Korea) | 6,755.75 | +0.97% | Opened up about 1.7%, gave back half |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,512.26 | +1.68% | Best of the European majors |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,363.20 | +1.31% | |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,439.11 | +0.80% | |
| FTSE 100 (U.K.) | 10,783.55 | +0.42% | Heavy oil weighting caps the index |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Buyers returned to Treasuries across maturities once the barrel gapped lower, undoing part of a week spent pricing the possibility that the Federal Reserve raises rates on Wednesday. Two-year notes yield 4.29% this morning, about four basis points lower, per Saxo Bank, while ten-year notes have given back six basis points from Friday's 4.69% close. Against all of its G10 peers the dollar is weaker as the protection bought during two weeks of fighting is sold back.
| Rates | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.29% | Hike odds cool with the barrel |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.63% | Thursday's 4.70% was the highest since Jan 2025 |
| 2s10s Spread | +34 bp | Roughly two basis points flatter |
| Volatility, FX & Commodities | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.60 | -5.2% |
| WTI Crude | $83.03 | -7.0% |
| Brent Crude | $88.91 | -8.1% |
| Gold | $4,104.00 | +0.8% |
| Nat Gas | $2.78 | -3.4% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.25 | -0.2% |
Technicals
A 1% gap higher restores less than it looks like. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,411.98, and this morning's futures imply a cash open around 7,487, which puts the index right back at the cluster of moving averages near 7,470 to 7,490 that it lost during last week's decline. The open is a retest rather than a recovery. The Nasdaq Composite has further to travel: Friday's 24,975.82 close plus the futures move puts it near 25,390, still some 425 points under a 20-day average of 25,815. Rates give back less than they took. The 10-year at 4.63% has returned about half of last week's four-session climb, and the 4.70% print two sessions ago is the marker this July move has to reclaim before the January 2025 comparison gets interesting again.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Broadcom (AVGO) — indicated at $391.64, pulling clear of a 20-day average at $381 that only just contained Friday's chip selloff. The 50-day at $399 is the next line overhead.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — indicated at $537.00, its first look above the 20-day at $533 in a week. A 52-week high of $580.91 set earlier this month sits above.
Breakdowns
ConocoPhillips (COP) — indicated at $116.30, giving up the $120 area that has capped it since Thursday. The 50-day average at $114 is the first shelf beneath.
SLB (SLB) — the oilfield services group jumped double digits on Friday's earnings beat and is indicated at $51.49 this morning, sitting directly on a 50-day average of $51.48. That line is what the earnings gap has to hold; the 200-day at $46 is the next reference below.
Top Movers
Gainers
Micron Technology (MU) is indicated 3.02% higher at $948.75 after losing 6.99% on Friday to close at $920.95. The Samsung agreement to supply Broadcom with high-bandwidth memory reads across the whole DRAM group, since it puts a number on how much high-bandwidth memory the artificial-intelligence build-out will consume through 2030. Micron's own 50-day average sits at $955, which the shares have not closed above since Wednesday.
Bloom Energy (BE) is indicated 5.51% higher at $195.27, a partial repair of Friday's 14.91% collapse to $184.89. The fuel-cell maker has now shed more than 40% from its late-June peak on short-seller allegations and questions about its supply chain, a decline that has run alongside a rising contracted backlog. Second-quarter results are due Tuesday, which gives management its first chance to answer directly.
Microchip Technology (MCHP) is indicated 2.74% higher at $81.02 after agreeing to buy Hailo, the Israeli designer of edge artificial-intelligence and vision processors. Terms were not disclosed, and Microchip said the deal will not materially affect its results; what it buys is more than 100 existing customers and a developer base above 10,000 in robotics, drones and machine vision. Closing is expected by the end of September.
Celestica (CLS) is indicated 2.99% higher at $314.40, recovering part of an 8.80% fall on Friday, and reports after the close tonight; analysts look for $2.30 a share on revenue of $4.39 billion.
Losers
Exxon Mobil (XOM) is indicated 3.03% lower at $152.18, the largest decliner among the megacaps and a straight function of the barrel. Friday's session had energy shares closing green even as the barrel fell, on the theory that the conflict would keep supporting them; that argument did not survive the weekend. Exxon reports Friday, when the second-quarter numbers will still reflect the high-price weeks rather than this one.
Chevron (CVX) is indicated 2.60% lower at $189.66 and also reports Friday.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is indicated 0.74% lower at $578.35, handing back part of Friday's 2.46% advance. Defense contractors were among the few groups that gained ground through the escalation, and a pause in strikes removes the near-term reason for the bid, though it does nothing to the multi-year order books that drove the move in the first place.
Macro Calendar
Manufacturing data carries the morning, with the durable goods report the only release likely to move anything.
| Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders (Jun), 8:30 ET | +1.6% | -4.5% |
| Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (Jun), 8:30 ET | — | +1.6% |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Jul), 10:30 ET | -12.0 | -15.1 |
May's 4.5% headline drop was a transportation story, with orders in that category down 14% as civilian aircraft collapsed, so the figure economists actually watch sits further down the release. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6% in May, and that line is the better gauge of what companies are committing to equipment. Treasury sells two-year notes at 11:30 a.m. Eastern and five-year notes at 1 p.m., and demand for the two-year will be watched more closely than usual two days before a rate decision.
Earnings Today
Pre-Open
AstraZeneca has already reported. Core earnings rose 18% at constant currency to $2.63 a share against the $2.48 analysts expected, revenue grew 5% to $15.38 billion, and the company left its full-year guidance unchanged. Cancer medicine sales climbed 15% at constant currency across the first half and carried the period, offsetting declines in the cardiovascular, renal and infectious disease units.
Post-Close
Nucor and Celestica report after the bell. Nucor guided second-quarter adjusted earnings to $4.50 to $4.60 a share back in June, which is the number the result gets measured against; Celestica consensus sits at $2.30 a share on $4.39 billion of revenue.
Drivers
1. Nothing about the strike pause has been signed, and it holds only as long as both sides keep to it. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed to most traffic, which is the constraint that produced the July move in the first place, and Saturday's attacks on Saudi refineries came from a party to the conflict that has made no commitment at all. Brent traded above $100 as recently as Thursday and sits at $88.91 this morning, still up more than 50% on the year per Saxo Bank.
2. The statement will carry more weight than the decision on Wednesday. The case for tightening had rested largely on an energy shock that has now partly reversed, but one weekend of cheaper crude does not undo a month in which Brent climbed roughly 30%, and Chair Kevin Warsh takes questions immediately afterward. A committee that holds while flagging the possibility of a move later is a different outcome for the curve than a committee that holds and says nothing.
3. Megacap technology results resume Wednesday, and last week established what the market is grading. Alphabet and Tesla both disclosed higher capital spending and both were sold; Apple gained 3.53% on Friday for spending comparatively little. Microsoft and Meta Platforms report Wednesday afternoon, Apple and Amazon on Thursday.