Indexes

U.S. futures edged higher before the bell, a steadier tone that Asia did not share overnight. Money is leaving the same artificial-intelligence hardware trade on both sides of the Pacific: South Korea's Kospi fell 5.7% and Japan's Nikkei 2.5%, while Intel's earnings beat put a floor under the U.S. open. Europe leaned the other way, its energy majors climbing with crude near six-week highs, per Reuters. Small-cap futures pointed narrowly higher, a sign the stabilization is thin rather than broad-based.

In the News

Rates, FX, Commodities

The front end of the Treasury curve is doing the work again, firming as traders treat costlier oil as one more reason for the Federal Reserve to hold or even lean the other way next week. Swaps now price roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate increase at the meeting and about 80% by September, up from almost nothing a month ago, per CME data. Gold, which has spent the month trading more on the dollar than on the war, slipped again as real yields firmed.

Technicals

Begin with the broad indices. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,408, under the 7,460 shelf it leaned on for two weeks and beneath its 20-day line up near 7,520; the early-July gap around 7,350 comes next into view on any further slip. The Composite surrendered last week's reclaim of 25,500, finishing at 25,138 and undoing the midweek repair. Yields press the same point: at 4.70%, the 10-year sits a whisker below Thursday's 4.71% peak, its loftiest since January of last year, and a weekly close up here tightens conditions for anything that borrows to grow. The memory makers took the overnight damage: Micron tracked the collapse in SK Hynix and Samsung, and its hourly chart, below, shows the pre-market break.

Micron (MU), hourly. The memory maker slid in pre-market trade as South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung tumbled roughly 8% overnight.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Lockheed Martin (LMT) — the defense prime cleared prior highs after Thursday's earnings beat, and the widening Iran campaign keeps a bid under the group; the reclaimed high is the level bulls need to defend.

RTX Corp (RTX) — pressing the top of a multi-month base as missile-defense demand climbs with the conflict; a push through it would put the spring highs back in play.

Breakdowns

Micron (MU) — losing its 50-day average as the overnight rout in Asian memory names hits the group; a decisive break opens the early-July gap beneath.

Broadcom (AVGO) — breaking the shelf that contained it since spring as AI-hardware fears spread down the chip chain; the 50-day is the next test.

Broadcom (AVGO) daily: the chip designer slipped with the group as the overnight sell-off in Asian semiconductors spread.

Top Movers

Gainers

Intel (INTC) added about 5.5% to $105.79 in pre-market trade, the clearest bright spot after a brutal week for technology. Revenue of $16.13 billion topped the $14.42 billion Wall Street expected and grew 25%, adjusted earnings of $0.42 a share doubled the $0.21 consensus, and management guided current-quarter revenue to $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, above the $15.0 billion the Street had penciled in. The reaction was far cooler than the 24% surge that greeted a similar beat in the spring, and the reason sits in the outlook: the company lifted 2026 capital spending to $20 billion from $18 billion and flagged a meaningful step up next year, the same build-the-future bill that has punished the megacaps all week.

Energy majors led the early gainers as crude held near six-week highs, with ExxonMobil (XOM) and the integrated names tracking the move that carried Europe's oil heavyweights higher. The equity market is still rewarding the one sector where a supply shock reads as pricing power rather than cost.

Losers

Tesla (TSLA) dropped near 6% before the bell, piling on to Thursday's 14% slide as investors kept marking down a quarter of thinner margins and cash burn, with capital spending up 142%.

Alphabet (GOOGL) slipped near 4.5%, deepening Thursday's loss after the company set 2026 capital spending as high as $205 billion, well beyond earlier plans. Investors again marked the stock down on the fatter budget, even as cloud revenue grew 82%.

Intel (INTC) daily: shares jumped in pre-market trade after a revenue beat and an above-consensus guide, though a raised spending plan capped the move.

Tesla (TSLA) daily: the stock extended its post-earnings slide as cash burn and thinner margins kept sellers in control.

Key Macro Data Today

It is a thin calendar into a loud week. The lone release is June new-home sales at 10 a.m. Eastern, a second-tier gauge of demand with mortgage rates still elevated, and one unlikely to move the needle while the Fed sits in its pre-meeting quiet period. The data that counts is next week's: policymakers convene Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision due Wednesday afternoon.

Earnings Today

A light day for results before the megacaps arrive next week.

Before the Open

HCA Healthcare (HCA) headlines a quieter morning, with the Street looking for $7.52 a share on $19.7 billion in revenue and options pricing a 6.3% swing; a clean beat would extend the rotation into health care that led Thursday. Charter Communications (CHTR) offers a read on broadband subscriber trends and cash returns.

After the Close

The after-bell slate is light; the marquee reports resume Tuesday when the megacap technology names begin.

Drivers

Thursday's near-$800 billion wipeout in the largest technology stocks was about the size of the AI build-out, and the debate outlasts today's session. Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon are all on next week's calendar, and each meets the question Alphabet and Tesla just answered badly: how long capital budgets can outrun the payoff. Intel's beat carries the counter-case, that the outlays show up as revenue a rung down the supply chain, at the chip and equipment makers. Microsoft and Meta anchor the Wednesday slate.

The new tariffs are the day's wild card. Futures are higher despite duties that now touch 99.4% of imports, a sign the market reads the 10%-to-12.5% range as manageable and largely trailed since the announcement. The risk is second-order: retaliation, supply-chain friction, and another nudge to goods inflation just as the Fed weighs whether to move. Import-heavy retail and auto names will show the first strain.

Crude has turned into a rates story. With core inflation near 3.4% and oil up about 30% this month, swaps put the odds of a hike near one-in-three when policymakers gather Tuesday and Wednesday, and Chair Kevin Warsh has said plainly that prices are too high. A surprise would land hardest on the rate-sensitive corners that led the market for most of the year. The decision comes Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern.

The S&P 500 fund (SPY) held the lower end of a two-week range, steadying on the daily chart after Thursday's broad slide.

The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) firmed slightly before the open on the daily chart, steadied by Intel even as megacap growth stayed heavy.