Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jul 23
- Alphabet and Tesla slide pre-market after raising 2026 capital budgets, with Alphabet now guiding to as much as $205B.
- Oil climbs a third day — WTI near $90, Brent above $97 — after drones and missiles hit two Saudi tankers overnight.
- Intel reports after the close, up 163% this year; weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, prior 208,000.
Indexes
Wall Street is set to open lower after the two reports it waited on all week landed with a catch. Alphabet and Tesla both beat where the market usually looks, yet both fell in pre-market dealing once investors read the spending plans behind the numbers, and that revived the same question about the cost of the artificial-intelligence build-out that has nagged at technology stocks all summer. The split with Asia is the tell: the money that hyperscalers are pouring into hardware flows to the chipmakers, so South Korea's Kospi jumped 2.8% while U.S. futures pointed the other way. Small caps held up better than the megacaps, a hint that the selling is concentrated at the top of the market rather than broad.
| Futures | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ES) | -0.5% | Megacap spending plans weigh |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQ) | -0.5% | Alphabet, Tesla lead the drag |
| Dow (YM) | -0.4% | Off about 230 points |
| Russell 2000 (RTY) | -0.2% | Small caps steadier |
| Global | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Kospi (South Korea) | +2.8% | Samsung, SK Hynix lead the AI-chip bid |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | +0.3% | Energy and miners track oil |
| DAX (Germany) | -0.4% | |
| Stoxx 600 (Europe) | -0.4% | Technology and luxury soften |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Treasuries sold off further, and the front end did the heavy lifting: two-year yields climbed to a two-month high as traders priced firmer oil as a reason for the Fed to sit still, or even lean the other way. Gold went the other way despite the geopolitics: a stronger dollar and higher real yields pulled the metal down about 1%, evidence that the Middle East premium is not the only force setting its price.
| Rates & Vol | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.32% | Front end leads the selloff |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.65% | Highest since mid-May |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.16% | |
| 2s10s Spread | +33 bp | Narrows from +40 bp as the front end leads |
| VIX | 17.78 | Bid on the tech pullback |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.3 | Firms as cut odds fade |
| Commodity | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $89.85 | Up ~3.5%, highest since early June |
| Brent Crude | $97.95 | Above $97, highest since late spring |
| Gold | $4,100 | Slips as the dollar and real yields firm |
| Nat Gas | $2.94 | Up a third day on summer demand |
Technicals
Broad-index levels first: the S&P 500 finished Wednesday at 7,499, wedged between its 20-day average near 7,520 and the shelf around 7,460 it has leaned on for two weeks; a lower open puts that shelf back in play, and a break of it would open the early-July gap beneath. The Nasdaq Composite at 25,691 still sits above the 25,500 level it reclaimed last week, so the repair holds for now. In rates, the 10-year yield at 4.65% is back at the top of its two-month range, and a decisive push through the mid-May high near 4.66% would tighten conditions for the rate-sensitive corners of the market. Tesla is the name to watch on the hourly chart below: the stock gapped lower overnight after its margin miss and has stayed pinned near the lows, a clean loss of the support that held through the spring.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Constellation Energy (CEG) — utilities were Wednesday's leadership on the pull of data-center power demand, and the nuclear operator is extending a breakout from a multi-month base; the prior highs become the line to hold on any pullback.
EOG Resources (EOG) — with Brent clearing $97 and energy out front, the producer is testing the ceiling of a two-month base; clearing it would keep the trend aimed at the spring highs.
Breakdowns
Amazon (AMZN) — shares ease toward the 50-day average ahead of Amazon's own report next week, with the early-July gap the next support beneath it.
Meta Platforms (META) — back under the range it has held since spring and drifting into next week's results; $610 has marked the floor since May.
Top Movers
Gainers
ServiceNow (NOW) jumped about 7% to near $102 after the software company reported adjusted earnings of $0.90 a share on $3.99 billion in revenue, beating the $0.85 and $3.93 billion Wall Street expected, with subscription revenue up 23% and operating margin of 29.5% running three points above its own guidance. Management said the annual contract value tied to its AI products has passed $1 billion, the proof of paid adoption that investors had been waiting for. After a week in which IBM and Pegasystems stoked worries about enterprise-software budgets, the result read as a green light for the AI-software names reporting into a crowded stretch.
Memory-chip names traded higher, with Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), and Western Digital (WDC) all bid as Alphabet's larger capital plan and record cloud backlog pointed to still more hardware demand. Micron drew an extra lift after Elon Musk said Tesla had locked in a large memory allocation from the company for the years ahead. The spending the market is punishing at the hyperscalers lands as revenue for the suppliers a rung down the chain.
Losers
Tesla (TSLA) fell about 5.5% in pre-market trading. Revenue rose 26% to a record $28.24 billion on record deliveries and topped estimates, but adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share missed the $0.51 the Street expected, gross margin slipped to 16.8% against a 19.4% forecast, and free cash flow turned negative as capital spending jumped 142%. The market is punishing the margin erosion and the spending ramp: the robotaxi and robotics ambitions are real, but the bill is landing now while the profit thins.
Alphabet (GOOGL) slipped about 3.6% even after a quarter that beat. Google Cloud revenue surged 82% from a year earlier to $24.8 billion, the backlog reached $514 billion, and total revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion, but management lifted 2026 capital-spending guidance to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion, up from $180 billion to $190 billion. Investors read the higher bill as a longer wait for the payoff, and the stock gave back ground it had spent the spring gaining.
IBM (IBM) held roughly steady after Wednesday's selloff on a second-quarter revenue miss.
Key Macro Data Today
Labor is the only reading that carries weight with the Fed in its pre-meeting quiet period. Weekly claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern follow a low 208,000 the prior week, and another firm number would reinforce the case that the economy does not need the cut traders were counting on, the same case firmer oil has been making in the bond market. Existing home sales for June arrive at 10 a.m. as a gauge of how housing is holding up under high mortgage rates. Policymakers gather next Tuesday and Wednesday.
| Release | Time (ET) | Prior | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 am | 208K | A low reading keeps cuts off the table |
| Existing Home Sales (Jun) | 10:00 am | — | First housing read of the month |
Earnings Today
A crowded morning of blue-chip results gives way to the week's last marquee report after the bell.
Before the Open
Union Pacific (UNP), Honeywell (HON), Blackstone (BX), and American Airlines (AAL) headline the morning. Honeywell is the broad read on industrial demand, and American Airlines offers a fresh gauge of travel spending as the summer season peaks; the airline reports around 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
After the Close
Intel (INTC) is the marquee report of the evening. The Street looks for $0.21 a share on $14.42 billion in revenue, and options imply a swing of nearly 14% in the stock, above its 12.4% average reaction over the past four quarters. The focus is on progress at the 18A manufacturing process and any sign that outside customers are committing to Intel's foundry, with the shares up 163% this year and expectations stretched.
Drivers
Two heavyweight reports landed after Wednesday's close, and the pre-market verdict is already split. Alphabet and Tesla both beat where analysts usually look, then fell once investors totaled the spending behind the results, and the open will show whether the market reads bigger hyperscaler budgets as a margin problem for the spenders or a demand signal for everyone selling them chips and power. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon all report next week, so the argument does not resolve today.
Oil is the other force, and it feeds straight into rates. Brent above $97 after the strikes on Saudi tankers keeps crude bid, and that carries through to gasoline and the inflation expectations the bond market has started to respect. Energy has led the market higher all month. The 10-year yield at 4.65% sits at its highest since May.
Intel closes the week's marquee reports after the bell. A stock up 163% this year has priced in a turnaround, so the burden is on the numbers and the outlook to justify the run, with foundry commitments from outside customers the piece investors most want to see. Consensus sits at $0.21 a share on $14.42 billion in revenue.