Ringside · Pre-Bell · Jul 2
- The jobs report in a thin market.
- A half-day's thin liquidity.
- Tesla's delivery count.
Indexes
Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened session on the defensive, with stock futures pointing modestly lower after the memory-chip selloff that began midweek rolled through Asia overnight. It is a compressed session with two outsized events: the June jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, pulled forward from Friday because the market is closed for the Independence Day holiday, and trading stops early at 1 p.m. Eastern. The contract on the Nasdaq 100 trades about 0.6% below Wednesday's close near 29,993, while Dow futures cling to a small gain as money keeps rotating toward value and away from the chip names.
| Futures | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,543.00 | -0.15% | Modest pullback |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,992.50 | -0.59% | Chips still heavy |
| YM (Dow) | 52,769.00 | +0.09% | Value holds up |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 3,041.50 | +0.19% | Small caps firm |
Wednesday's regular session opened the third quarter with a rotation rather than a rout: the Dow scratched out an intraday record before easing, while the chip-heavy indexes bore the damage as investors trimmed the trade that carried the first half. The S&P 500 slipped, the Nasdaq Composite led the majors lower, and the Russell 2000 held its perch above 3,000.
| Wednesday close | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,483.23 | -0.22% | Chips outweigh value bid |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,040.03 | -0.66% | Semis lead the drop |
| Dow Jones | 52,305.24 | -0.03% | Record before it faded |
| Russell 2000 | 3,012.59 | -0.39% | Still above 3,000 |
Asia fell hardest, where the chip weighting is heaviest. South Korea's Kospi tumbled roughly 5% as Samsung Electronics fell about 7.5% and SK Hynix dropped more than 9% on reports that Apple is testing Chinese memory; Kioxia sank more than 10% in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei gave back about 2%, snapping a three-day run, while Hong Kong bucked the mood and Europe opened firmer on its lighter technology weighting.
| Global | Last | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 68,733.15 | -2.40% | Three-day run ends |
| Hang Seng | 23,055.03 | +0.76% | Hong Kong higher |
| FTSE 100 | 10,527.19 | +0.41% | London firm |
| DAX | 25,242.55 | +0.69% | Frankfurt leads |
| CAC 40 | 8,400.25 | +0.70% | Paris higher |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,311.69 | +0.35% | Broad Europe green |
In the News
Drivers
1. The jobs report in a thin market. June payrolls at 8:30 Eastern are the session's hinge, and they land into a market that has quietly repriced toward hike risk, with the thirty-year yield back near 5% and traders again floating an autumn move after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish June message. ADP's 98,000 and a consensus near 110,000 both point cooler, so the surprise that matters is an upside one. A firm number revives the bond selloff and squeezes the high-growth names already under pressure; an in-line miss lets the rate worry fade into the long weekend.
2. A half-day's thin liquidity. Trading stops at 1 p.m. Eastern and the bond market at 2, with everything shut Friday and back Monday. Reduced volume around a holiday can stretch the reaction to the payrolls number in either direction, so the size of the move may say more about who is at their desk than about the data itself.
3. Tesla's delivery count. Tesla reports second-quarter deliveries today, with Wall Street looking for about 406,000 vehicles after the company missed in the first quarter at 358,023. US demand has softened with the expiring federal EV credit, while European registrations have jumped, so the regional mix carries the story.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Treasuries extended their slide, lifting yields toward the top of their recent range as traders positioned for the risk that a resilient labor market keeps the Federal Reserve on hold, or worse. The thirty-year sits just under 5%, its firmest in weeks, and the gap from the two-year to the ten-year has widened back toward positive thirty. Oil, bullion and the dollar below reflect quotes pulled shortly before publication.
| Rates / Vol | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.70 | +0.8% | Calm despite the chips |
| 2-Year | 4.18% | — | Anchored to Fed path |
| 10-Year | 4.48% | — | Top of recent range |
| 30-Year | 4.97% | — | Firmest in weeks |
| 2s10s | +30 bp | — | Curve steepens |
| DXY | 101.08 | -0.3% | Dollar eases |
Crude kept sliding, with West Texas Intermediate near $67.60 and Brent near $70.66 as the Middle East risk premium continued to fade. Gold held its ground at $4,080.80 an ounce, keeping the money that has been leaving high-multiple stocks, while the euro firmed to $1.1412 and the yen strengthened to 161.44 per dollar.
| Commodity | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $67.61 | Lowest since late February |
| Brent Crude | $70.66 | Risk premium fading |
| Gold | $4,080.80 | Holding above $4,000 |
| Natural Gas | $3.18 | Quiet |
Technicals
The major indexes go in with a little damage but no break. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,483, holding above its rising 50-day near 7,400 while slipping under its 20-day, the pattern that has defined every shallow pullback this spring. The Nasdaq 100 sits richer to its averages and takes the brunt whenever the chips lead lower. The sharper signal is in yields: the ten-year at 4.48% has climbed back to the top of its recent band, and a push above the spring high near 4.55% would put the year's peak yield back in view, tightening financial conditions on high-growth stocks. The steepest move before the bell is in the chip names giving up support, and Advanced Micro Devices frames it best; its intraday chart sits below.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Meta Platforms (META) — cleared its prior high into record territory above $600 on the cloud-business news, with the next resistance near $640; the stock has become the market's proxy for the disciplined-spending debate.
Tesla (TSLA) — reclaimed its 50-day near $415 and is pressing $440 resistance into today's delivery report; a clean push through would confirm the reversal off the June lows.
Breakdowns
Intel (INTC): lost its 50-day and the $130 shelf on Wednesday's roughly 9% slide, with the next support near $118 and the spring low beneath it.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): broke the $560 support that had held since May, leaving the 200-day near $500 as the next line lower after a bruising session for the group.
Top Movers
The pre-market board is quieter than Wednesday's session, with the memory names steadying and one earnings winner in front ahead of a data-heavy morning. The lists below reflect the overnight positioning, with the reaction to the morning's data still an hour away.
Gainers
Constellation Brands (STZ) rose about 3% to $143.59 before the bell after fiscal first-quarter profit of $3.43 a share beat the $3.21 consensus and revenue of $2.43 billion edged past estimates. The maker of Modelo and Corona is the kind of consumer-staples name that draws a bid when growth stocks wobble, and the beat gave holders a reason to add on a nervous morning.
Micron (MU) firmed about 1% near $1,030, steadying after Wednesday's 10.6% drop left the memory-chip names as the session's worst group. The overhang is the report that Apple is qualifying memory from Chinese suppliers, a threat to the pricing power that powered the group's first-half surge, so buyers are treating the bounce cautiously.
Nvidia (NVDA) ticked up toward $197, the AI-logic leader stabilizing after getting dragged into Wednesday's retreat even though it sits outside the memory trade.
SanDisk (SNDK) added under 1% near $2,030, tracking the same memory-name bounce after Wednesday's double-digit drop.
Losers
Applied Materials (AMAT) slipped about 1% to $651, extending a roughly 10% Wednesday fall as investors marked down the chip-equipment makers most exposed to any slowdown in memory spending. The read on the group is simple: if the giants add less capacity, the toolmakers feel it first.
Caterpillar (CAT) eased near $990, giving back more of Wednesday's 7% slide as the trade around AI-driven power and infrastructure demand cooled with the rest of the theme.
Macro Calendar
The session turns on the 8:30 payrolls report. Consensus looks for about 110,000 jobs added in June, down from 172,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and average hourly earnings up 3.5% from a year ago. After ADP's soft 98,000, the market is braced for a cooler number, so the risk that would sting is an upside surprise, one that extends the bond selloff and presses high-multiple stocks. Weekly jobless claims arrive alongside, and factory orders follow at 10 a.m.
| This session (ET) | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (June) | ~110K | 172K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Initial jobless claims | 219K | 215K |
| Factory orders (May) | -1.7% | +4.8% |
Earnings Today
Almost nothing reports on a half-day before the holiday, and the single name that matters is already out.
Before the open: Constellation Brands leads after its beat, reported late Tuesday; a scattering of small-caps rounds out the morning, none big enough to register on the indexes.
After the close: The slate is empty, and the market reopens Monday. The next marquee reads arrive with the big banks in mid-July.