Ringside · Pre-Bell · August 3
- Brent fell 5.11% to $83.44 after Trump called off the Iran strike; talks resume today.
- Seoul's Kospi lost 5.13% to 6,257.41 as Samsung and SK Hynix each shed about 9%.
- ISM manufacturing lands at 10:00 ET, with consensus at 54.0 against June's 53.3.
Indexes
Weekend diplomacy produced a green open. President Trump said on Sunday that he had called off a planned strike on Iran after Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to pursue an agreement instead, and that negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz would restart today. Crude sold off hard, Treasury yields eased, and all four US index contracts are higher.
| Contract | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,561.50 | +0.56% | S&P closed Friday at 7,489.72 |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 28,526.50 | +0.43% | 20-day average sits at 28,818 |
| YM (Dow) | 53,065.00 | +0.82% | Dow closed Friday at 52,485.03 |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 2,960.40 | +0.76% | Russell was Friday's only loser, at 2,931.34 |
Korea spent the session giving Friday back. Having gained 17.91% on Friday, the Kospi went the other way, as Samsung Electronics closed down 8.76% and SK Hynix 8.79%, with Bloomberg attributing the selling to investors unwinding leverage-backed positions. Tokyo surrendered part of its own 4.03% Friday advance.
| Asia | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 6,257.41 | -5.13% | Down as much as 5.5% early |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,754.90 | -0.94% | Held 63,000 |
| Hang Seng | 26,009.40 | +0.48% |
Europe took the oil headline rather better. The DAX is up 1.38%, the CAC 40 1.34% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.98%, while the FTSE 100 sits 0.04% lower with its heavier energy weighting working against it.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Friday finished with the long end of the Treasury curve at levels it had not seen in years, and Monday morning has walked a little of that back.
| Treasuries (Jul 31 close) | Level | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | 4.28% | +5 bp | Top of the Fed's range is 3.75% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.74% | +8 bp | Highest since January 2025 |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.27% | +7 bp | Nineteen-year high |
| Commodity | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $79.38 | -6.25% | Friday settled at $84.67 |
| Brent crude | $83.44 | -5.11% | Traded as low as $81.55 |
| Gold | $4,057.99 | +0.37% | Recovers Friday's slip |
| Natural gas | $2.755 | +0.29% |
| Currency | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | 99.81 | -0.11% | |
| USD/JPY | 156.76 | -0.43% | Yen firmer for a second week |
Brent's July advance of almost a quarter was its largest monthly gain since March, per Bloomberg, and that climb is why three Fed officials broke ranks last week. Unwinding a chunk of it over one weekend therefore lands on the rate debate as much as on the energy complex. Ten-year yields were quoted around 4.69% early Monday, roughly five basis points under Friday's close, and bullion is higher for the same reason the curve is easing.
Technicals
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,489.72, eight points over its 20-day average and eighteen over its 50-day, with those two lines now within ten points of one another. Futures imply an open near 7,530, and the June 2 high of 7,609.78 is the first level of any weight overhead. The Nasdaq 100 has further to travel: at 28,274.20 it sits 544 points under its 20-day and 1,115 under its 50-day, though 1,765 clear of the 200-day at 26,508.73. Volatility went into the weekend at 15.99 on the VIX, 6.44% lower on Friday.
Two-year yields at 4.28% are 53 basis points above the top of the Fed's target range, which is the market stating plainly that it expects the next move to be upward. A ten-year back beneath 4.60% would erase the whole of the past fortnight's selling.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Amazon (AMZN) — Friday's $271.58 close finished $3.41 under the $274.99 close of May 6, its high-water mark of the past twelve months; the premarket quote at $276.10 sits above that. The 20-day average at $243.86 is a long way behind.
Microsoft (MSFT) — Back over its 200-day average of $433.58 after last week's results, and indicated at $471.78. From here the October peak at $542.07 is the only prior high left standing.
Breakdowns
Apple (AAPL) — Friday's 7.35% fall to $308.91 left it 59 cents beneath its 50-day average. Underneath, the 200-day sits at $277.96.
Meta Platforms (META) — At $556.71 the stock trades below all three of its main averages, with the 200-day at $634.49 now 14% overhead. The July 30 low of $539.03 is what is holding it up.
Top Movers
Gainers
Alibaba (BABA) rose 4.49% to $127.74 in the premarket, extending Friday's 5.10% gain and leaving it about 12% above its 50-day average of $114.08. This morning's model announcement is the driver, and Baidu and the Hong Kong internet listings usually travel in the same direction. The stock spent most of the first half of the year beneath its major averages.
United Airlines (UAL) added 2.62% to $124.51, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) up 1.58% at $88.82 and American Airlines (AAL) up 2.10% at $15.59. Fuel is the second-largest cost line for the network carriers after labour, and the one that moves most with the crude price, so a 6% decline rewrites the arithmetic on every route. All three lost ground through July while oil climbed.
Palantir (PLTR) gained 2.89% to $126.61 ahead of results after the close. Consensus is $1.812 billion of revenue and $0.34 per share, and the options market implies a move of roughly 12% in either direction. The stock trades 40% below its November high of $207.18, and it has beaten the consensus estimate in each of its last eight quarters.
Losers
ConocoPhillips (COP) dropped 1.86% to $118.24, the weakest of the large US producers this morning. Its production mix carries more direct exposure to the crude price than the integrated majors do, which cuts both ways and cut against it over the weekend.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) slipped 1.75% to $56.07.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined 1.23% to $153.53, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) is indicated 1.16% lower at $58.86 after closing Friday at $59.55. The giveback starts from a decent base: energy was one of only four sectors to finish higher on Friday.
ON Semiconductor (ON) lost 1.15% to $80.67, tracking the Korean chip selling, and reports after the close tonight.
Macro Calendar
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:45 am | S&P Global US Mfg PMI (final, Jul) | — | 53.8 flash |
| 10:00 am | ISM Manufacturing (Jul) | 54.0 | 53.3 |
| 10:00 am | ISM Prices Paid | 70.0 | 73.0 |
| 10:00 am | ISM New Orders | 57.0 | 56.0 |
| 10:00 am | Construction Spending (Jun) | +0.2% | +0.1% |
Prices paid is the component with the most riding on it today. It ran at 73.0 in June, and with three Fed officials already voting for an increase, a reading that stays north of 70 keeps the September argument alive regardless of where the headline index prints.
Earnings Today
Before the open: Marriott International (MAR), where the Zacks consensus is $3.06 per share on $7.3 billion of revenue, and Tyson Foods (TSN), where consensus sits near $1.00 per share on $14.1 billion. Marriott's report is the cleaner read on whether leisure travel demand survived a summer of expensive fuel. CNH Industrial, Loews and Kosmos Energy also report.
After the close: Palantir (PLTR) at 5:00 p.m., ON Semiconductor (ON), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Snap (SNAP), Clorox (CLX), Williams (WMB), Oneok (OKE) and Diamondback Energy (FANG).
Drivers
- The strait itself. PortWatch counted ten vessel transits through Hormuz on July 23 against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 a day, and the waterway has been effectively shut for 155 days. Negotiations resuming is not the same thing as cargo moving, and the tanker count over the next several sessions is what confirms or unwinds this morning's repricing in crude. Shipping data, unlike a Truth Social post, arrives on a schedule.
- Ten o'clock. The manufacturing survey's price component is the part that reaches the rate debate, and consensus looks for it to cool. A hotter number hands the three dissenters their argument in the weeks before the September meeting.
- Palantir after the bell. The growth case rests on its AI platform business, so what management says about production deployments versus pilots will matter more than the size of any beat. The webcast starts at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.