Ringside · Pre-Bell · August 19
- Seoul's Kospi fell 5.80% to 6,471.17 and the exchange suspended program selling.
- Target raised full-year earnings guidance to $9.90-$10.90 and the shares fell anyway.
- July Fed minutes arrive at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, from the meeting that drew three dissents.
Indexes
Korea had one of its worst sessions of the year and American futures declined to notice. The Kospi lost 5.80% to close at 6,471.17, a fall steep enough that the Korea Exchange triggered its sidecar and suspended program sell orders, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics absorbing the bulk of it. Tokyo shed 3.16% as Kioxia and the Japanese equipment suppliers followed. Yet S&P 500 futures at 7,714.75 sit within a point of Tuesday's settle, and the widest move among the four US contracts is eleven hundredths of a percent. Either the memory selling is a regional unwind of a very crowded position, or American markets have not finished pricing it. Bloomberg attributes the Asian decline to government bond yields, not to anything the chipmakers disclosed, which fits: the same long-end pressure that has run through Treasuries all month reached Tokyo and Seoul overnight.
| Futures | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | 7,714.75 | +0.01% | |
| NQ (Nasdaq 100) | 29,552.25 | -0.11% | |
| YM (Dow) | 53,397 | -0.01% | |
| RTY (Russell 2000) | 3,023.70 | -0.09% |
Quotes taken at 6:40 a.m. Eastern, measured against Tuesday's settlements. Europe has stayed out of it almost entirely, with the DAX, the Stoxx 50 and the FTSE 100 all inside four tenths of a percent and the CAC 40 the firmest at plus 0.36%. Asia is where the damage sits, and even there it was selective.
| Asia | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 6,471.17 | -5.80% | Sidecar triggered |
| Nikkei 225 | 65,326.42 | -3.16% | Second straight decline |
| Hang Seng | 25,495.07 | +0.16% | Recovered early losses |
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
The two-year note has spent August almost motionless while everything past ten years repriced, and this morning that gap is roughly 110 basis points.
| Treasury | Yield | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.19% | — | Tuesday close |
| 5-Year | 4.37% | — | Tuesday close |
| 10-Year | 4.71% | — | Tuesday close |
| 30-Year | 5.29% | — | Off Tuesday's 5.33% peak |
Crude is working on a fourth consecutive advance, and the Hormuz dispute has produced no development that would end it.
| Commodity / FX | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $85.94 | +1.18% | Fourth straight gain |
| Brent crude | $92.04 | +1.12% | |
| Gold (spot) | $4,362.85 | +0.64% | |
| Natural gas | $2.78 | +0.23% | |
| Copper | $6.42 | -1.03% | Industrial demand read |
| Dollar Index | 99.40 | -0.26% |
Technicals
Tuesday's finish left the broad benchmark at 7,691.76, some 2.25% above its 50-day average at 7,522.24 and 1.38% under the August 13 record close of 7,798.99, a peak verified against the full daily series before publication. Its 100-name counterpart finished at 29,490.96, four tenths of a percent above the 50-day at 29,376.26, with its June 2 record close of 30,660.60, verified the same way, sitting 3.8% overhead.
On rates, the two-year at 4.19% has moved about two basis points in a week while the thirty-year at 5.285% sits just under Tuesday's 5.33% intraday mark. The semiconductor group is where the charts have actually changed: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) closed at $569.77, some 3.55% below its 50-day average at $590.82, though it remains fractionally above the 20-day at $565.15. Its hourly chart is below.
Breakouts
Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.34% on Tuesday and still finished at $219.74, above its 20-day average of $212.10, its 50-day of $206.94 and its 200-day of $195.10, which is more than the memory names can say. The 52-week closing high of $235.74 is 6.8% away. Exxon Mobil (XOM) at $165.56 is 5.5% above its 20-day of $156.94 and within 3.4% of its own 52-week closing high of $171.47, carried there by three sessions of crude buying.
Breakdowns
Micron Technology (MU) closed at $940.76 and gave up its 50-day average of $962.57, having reclaimed the $1,000 level only on Monday. The 20-day at $895.86 sits about 4.8% lower. Lowe's (LOW) at $215.64 was already pinned between a 20-day of $214.67 and a 50-day of $215.68 going into this morning's report; the pre-open quote of $211.70 puts it under both, and the 200-day sits far above at $237.82.
Top Movers
Gainers
Estée Lauder (EL) trades at $90.61 before the bell, up 7.52% from Tuesday's close of $84.27, after releasing fiscal fourth-quarter results. The Street had carried $0.31 a share against $0.09 a year ago on roughly 4% revenue growth. Management discusses the year at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with the stock still 24% below its 52-week high of $119.61.
TJX Companies (TJX) is up 1.43% at $153.00 from $150.85 following its fiscal second-quarter report, where consensus sat at $1.19 a share on about $15.17 billion of revenue. The call is at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.
Toll Brothers (TOL) trades at $143.40, up 0.38%, after Tuesday evening's fiscal third quarter delivered $2.97 a share against the $2.93 consensus on home sales revenue of $2.65 billion, ahead of the $2.62 billion expected. Earnings fell from $3.73 a year ago and deliveries dropped to 2,662 homes from 2,959, so the beat is a matter of degree. The number that separates this from the rest of housing is the order book: net signed contract value rose to $2.52 billion from $2.41 billion. Yearley and Mistry take questions at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Losers
Target (TGT) is down 3.16% at $147.66 from $152.48, which is a strange verdict on the quarter it just posted. Comparable sales rose 3.8%, with stores up 2.7% and digital up 8.7%; net sales of $26.5 billion grew 5.3%; earnings of $4.11 a share doubled from $2.05 against a $2.35 consensus; and full-year guidance went up to $9.90 to $10.90. The catch is in the composition: $1.65 of that $4.11 came from tariff refunds, and excluding them earnings rose 20% rather than 100%. Shares had already gained more than 50% this year on the expectation that the turn under Michael Fiddelke would hold, so the market is discounting the refund and pricing the 20%.
Lowe's (LOW) falls 1.83% to $211.70 after reporting diluted earnings of $4.27 a share, level with a year ago, on comparable sales up 0.2%. Adjusted earnings of $4.40 rose 1.6%, and both figures include an eleven-cent benefit from tariff refunds. The company now expects full-year sales of $92 billion, against a prior range of $92 billion to $94 billion, comparable sales flat versus a prior flat-to-up-2%, and adjusted earnings of $12.25 rather than $12.25 to $12.75 — each revision lands on the bottom of the old range.
Micron Technology (MU) slips 0.93% to $931.98 as Seoul's memory selling reaches the American listings. Western Digital (WDC) is off 1.43% at $489.05, having closed Tuesday at $496.16, below both its 20-day average of $498.78 and its 50-day of $551.31.
Macro Data Today
| Release | Time (ET) | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA mortgage applications | 7:00 a.m. | ||
| EIA crude inventories | 10:30 a.m. | +17.42M | |
| FOMC minutes (Jul 28-29) | 2:00 p.m. |
The weekly mortgage figures matter more than usual with the thirty-year Treasury near multi-decade highs. The inventory report is the one number that can interrupt crude's run, and the two readings on it disagree: the American Petroleum Institute's industry count showed a 328,000-barrel draw against a 9.07 million-barrel build the week before, while the government's own last published change was a 17.42 million-barrel build. The 10:30 figure is the official one.
Earnings Today
Analog Devices releases fiscal third-quarter results at 7:00 a.m. Eastern with a call at 10:00 a.m., and the company's own guidance was revenue of $3.9 billion give or take $100 million, adjusted earnings of $3.30 a share give or take fifteen cents, and reported operating margin near 39%. It closed Tuesday at $376.63, below its 50-day average of $390.30. Target, Lowe's, TJX and Estée Lauder all reported before the open, and Toll Brothers, which released Tuesday evening, brings management to the microphone this morning. Nothing on the scale of this group is scheduled for tonight.
Drivers
- Three regional Fed presidents dissented at the July 28-29 meeting, and this afternoon's minutes are the first detailed account of how the majority answered them. What matters is whether the hold was framed as a step toward a September increase or as ordinary caution. Pricing has moved a good deal since that meeting: a rate rise by year-end went from roughly even money to something less than fully priced, and Tuesday's 12.4% collapse in housing starts pushed the same way. The document lands at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
- Four large retailers reported inside an hour of each other and the split runs along a clean line. Target posted a 3.8% comparable-sales gain and raised guidance; Lowe's managed 0.2% and cut the top of its full-year range; Home Depot described housing conditions as frozen on Tuesday. The consumer is spending, but not on anything attached to a house. Both Target and Lowe's booked tariff refunds this quarter, which is a second reason to read the earnings lines carefully before treating either as a trend.
- Analog Devices is the first semiconductor result since the Wall Street Journal's tally of off-balance-sheet technology commitments, and its customers are industrial and automotive rather than data centres. A strong quarter would argue the selling is confined to the artificial-intelligence names. The relevant marker for the group is the 50-day average on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) at $590.82.