Ringside · Post-Bell · September 2
- Private payrolls grew 38,000 in August, the weakest count since January.
- Dell closed 15.8% higher at $492.20, and the broad index snapped a three-day slide.
- Broadcom guided fourth-quarter revenue to $34.8 billion, just under consensus; the stock fell 3.5% afterward.
Indexes
The bond market stopped taking things away, and most of what it had punished for three days came back. Ten-year Treasury notes reached 4.818% during the morning, the highest reading since November 2023 according to CNBC, then finished at 4.79%, exactly where they closed Tuesday. What arrived in between was the ADP count: 38,000 private jobs added in August against the 47,000 economists expected, and the smallest monthly gain since January. Traders who had spent a week pricing a September rate rise had to set that alongside it, and the advance that followed favoured whatever suffers most from expensive money: the Russell 2000 rose 1.13% while technology placed tenth of eleven sectors. The broad index at 7,666.60 now sits 132 points below the closing high it set on August 13.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,666.60 | +0.46% | 7,633.62 – 7,681.19 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,217.83 | +0.45% | 26,062.68 – 26,245.04 |
| Dow Jones | 53,061.95 | +0.56% | 52,829.58 – 53,227.50 |
| Russell 2000 | 2,953.17 | +1.13% | 2,926.51 – 2,959.52 |
| VIX | 15.20 | -6.98% | 15.12 – 16.82 |
Sector Heat Map
Nine sectors advanced, and only real estate fell by more than a rounding error.
| Sector | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Materials (XLB) | +1.69% | Copper up 1.4% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +1.39% | Charter and Reddit both up over 8% |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.80% | |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.75% | Johnson & Johnson at a one-year high |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.51% | Fourth advance in five days |
| Staples (XLP) | +0.33% | |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.26% | Held up despite California selling |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.24% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.03% | |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.02% | Software offset the chip gains |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.70% | Only decline worse than a tenth |
Cyclicals beat defensives and value beat growth, the shape a rally takes when the relief comes from the bond market rather than from earnings.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Wednesday was the first session in six that the ten-year did not finish higher, which is the entire reason equities had a good day. TradingEconomics puts the market-implied odds of a quarter-point increase at this month's meeting near 66%, against roughly 40% a week ago; the ADP report interrupted that arithmetic rather than denting it. The dollar index eased to 99.55.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.40% | 4.39% on Tuesday |
| 10-Year | 4.79% | Reached 4.818% before noon |
| 30-Year | 5.27% | |
| 2s10s spread | 39 bp |
| Commodity | Settle | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (Oct) | $91.01 | +0.88% | Third consecutive advance |
| Brent Crude (Nov) | $95.63 | +1.04% | First finish above $95 since late July |
| Natural Gas | $2.996 | +3.17% | |
| Gold (Dec) | $4,434.70 | — | December is now the front month |
Crude here is the exchange settlement rather than the screen quote that keeps trading afterward: October West Texas Intermediate settled at $91.01 and November Brent at $95.63, each about a percentage point above Tuesday. Natural gas is a closing price, not a settlement print. Gold carries no percentage because the December contract only became the front month during the session, which makes any comparison with Tuesday a comparison of two different contracts.
Technicals
The broad index finished 7,666.60, some 42 points beneath its 20-day mark of 7,708.76 while holding 90 points clear of a 50-day sitting at 7,576.70. The Nasdaq 100 is in worse repair at 29,143.33, below both a 20-day near 29,490 and a 50-day near 29,220. The Composite is the exception among the three, 250 points above a 50-day at 25,967.36. Small caps did the most work and have the most left to do: the Russell 2000 at 2,953.17 ended 36 points shy of its own 50-day.
Ten-year notes ended at 4.79% for a second consecutive day after reaching 4.818%, and equities tracked that morning figure closely enough to make it Thursday's reference.
Breakouts. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) closed at $275.21, its best finish of the past twelve months, and was one of two names CNBC credited with carrying the Dow. Dell Technologies (DELL) at $492.20 came within $2.31 of the $494.51 it posted on August 13. Charter Communications (CHTR) at $158.97 now trades 11.6% above a 50-day average of $142.42.
Breakdowns. Credo Technology (CRDO) lost 20% to $165.22 and closed under its 200-day average of $175.13, with the last such finish on April 10. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) at $328.48 surrendered a 50-day average of $347.57 and a 20-day at $366.69 in one week. Edison International (EIX) ended at $55.19, within $3.07 of the $52.12 it printed last October.
Top Movers
Gainers
Dell Technologies (DELL), +15.8% to $492.20. Overnight enthusiasm for Tuesday evening's results survived the whole session, rarer than it sounds after a gap this size. Investors are underwriting one promise, that the artificial-intelligence server business triples this fiscal year, and the $192 billion revenue target, $25 billion above the last one, is what that promise is worth in dollars.
Reddit (RDDT), +9.3% to $158.10. Baird told clients the market has already discounted the worst outcome for two artificial-intelligence data-licensing contracts expiring next year, the Google and OpenAI deals worth an estimated $130 million a year between them. Raymond James lifted its price target to $205 from $200 the same morning.
Charter Communications (CHTR), +8.7% to $158.97. Chief Financial Officer Jessica Fischer leaves on October 15 and Kevin Howard takes the job on an interim basis, news that normally earns a discount rather than a rally. Management reaffirmed guidance and called the departure unrelated to reporting or strategy, and the shares recovered the week's decline.
Losers
Credo Technology (CRDO), -20.0% to $165.22. The connectivity-chip maker grew revenue 115% from a year earlier and beat on earnings, then lost a fifth of its value. Two sessions of selling before the release had already taken 11% off the price, making Wednesday the third leg of one repricing rather than a fresh verdict.
MongoDB (MDB), -13.5% to $375.40. Second-quarter results beat on both lines and full-year guidance went up, none of which was the problem. Growth in the Atlas managed-cloud service printed 29% for a third straight quarter, and the multiple the stock carried was built on that figure moving the other way.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW), -9.3% to $328.48. The selling that followed Tuesday's results ran a second day and dragged the rest of enterprise software with it, with CrowdStrike off 5.4% and Datadog 6.5%.
California utilities (PCG, EIX). PG&E (PCG) fell 5.2% to $13.33 after saying it will defer $2 billion of capital improvement work planned for 2027. Edison International (EIX) lost 6.1% to $55.19, with JPMorgan cutting its target to $61 from $82 on renewed wildfire-liability risk. Senate Bill 492, the liability rewrite that lost the utilities' backing once it was amended, died without a vote when the legislative session ended Tuesday, and both stocks rallied Tuesday on the news. The sector still closed higher, which shows how narrowly the damage was aimed.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP private payrolls (Aug) | 38,000 | 47,000 | 46,000 |
| Factory orders (Jul) | +0.9% | +0.6% | -0.2% |
| EIA crude inventories | -4.5M bbl | — | — |
The composition of the payroll figure was narrower than the headline suggests: education and health services added 45,000 positions while manufacturing shed 17,000 and professional and business services 16,000. Factory orders supplied the only upside surprise, carried by a rebound in transportation orders. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, published at 2 p.m. Eastern, described modest growth and moderate price increases, with contacts naming energy costs and the conflict as their main uncertainties. Crude inventories fell to 424.5 million barrels, with refineries running at 98% of capacity.
Notable Earnings This Session
Pre-Open
A thin slate, and nothing in it moved the market.
Post-Close
Broadcom (AVGO) closed at $367.24, then reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from a year earlier, with artificial-intelligence semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, higher by 221% year over year and 54% on the prior quarter. Adjusted earnings of $3.32 a share beat the $3.24 expected, and Chief Executive Hock Tan told investors to expect $21.7 billion of such revenue this quarter. The stock fell 3.5% regardless, because the $34.8 billion total revenue guide landed under the $35.03 billion analysts were carrying.
Snowflake (SNOW) closed at $305.84 and rose 21% afterward on earnings of $0.62 a share against $0.45 expected, plus a fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $6.07 billion against the $5.84 billion of product revenue it guided to in May. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) closed at $51.83, delivered $1.11 a share on $12.2 billion of revenue against $0.92 expected, raised its full-year range to $3.75 to $3.85, and slipped 1%. NetApp (NTAP) closed at $180.77, lifted full-year guidance to $9.73 to $10.03 from $8.70 to $9.00, and fell 7%.
Drivers
Hock Tan's numbers are on the page; what he says about fiscal 2027 is not. Broadcom has carried a $100 billion artificial-intelligence chip target for that year since March and declined to raise it in June, a decision that cost the stock 12.6% the following session. A quarter that grew 54% sequentially makes standing pat harder to justify, and the current-quarter guide implies the run rate is most of the way there already.
ADP's 38,000 is a private estimate with a mixed record against the government's count, and both readings now have to be reconciled with a rates market pricing a rise. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on August payrolls. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on September 15 and 16.
Ten-year notes stopped rising Wednesday without actually falling, and the 4.818% morning peak did not hold into the afternoon. Thursday's claims number arrives at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.