Ringside · Post-Bell · September 1
- Ten-year Treasury yield closed at 4.79%, a level last occupied in January 2025, as September hike odds climbed.
- West Texas Intermediate settled 5.2% higher at $90.22, its first settlement above $90 in more than a month.
- Dell rose 10% after hours: AI server revenue now seen tripling this year, October-quarter guide $49 billion.
Indexes
The bond market set September's opening terms and equities paid for them. Ten-year Treasury notes closed at 4.79%, up from 4.75% Monday and back on ground last occupied in January 2025, as traders lifted the odds that the Federal Reserve raises rates at this month's meeting instead of cutting. Crude compounded the problem: fighting between American and Iranian forces around the Strait of Hormuz, which resumed over the weekend and continued through the session, carried West Texas Intermediate to a settlement of $90.22. Dearer energy and a higher discount rate are an unkind pairing for companies valued on distant profits, and the losses sorted themselves along exactly that line, with the Nasdaq Composite off 1.03% against the Dow's 0.79%. Small caps took the worst of it, the Russell 2000 shedding 1.23% to 2,920.13 and closing beneath both its 20-day and 50-day averages. A 0.71% decline on the broad index leaves it 167 points under its August high.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,631.47 | -0.71% | 7,611.20 – 7,663.63 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,099.77 | -1.03% | 25,995.53 – 26,260.68 |
| Dow Jones | 52,766.88 | -0.79% | 52,691.31 – 53,176.60 |
| Russell 2000 | 2,920.13 | -1.23% | 2,916.84 – 2,943.43 |
| VIX | 16.34 | +9.52% | 14.95 – 16.80 |
Sector Heat Map
Four sectors finished higher, and the split between them and the other seven was almost mechanical.
| Sector | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +1.27% | Closed at a 52-week high |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.78% | Bounce from Monday's liability selling |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.66% | |
| Staples (XLP) | +0.32% | |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.16% | |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.52% | |
| Financials (XLF) | -0.88% | |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.18% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | -1.37% | |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.53% | Chips led the retreat |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -1.72% | Tesla off 3.22% |
Money bought the barrel and the dividend and sold everything whose value depends on cheap financing, which is the textbook response to a day when oil and yields rise together.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Yields rose across the curve for a second session, and the front end moved more than the back, which is what a market repricing the next policy decision instead of the next decade looks like. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com argues the pressure now runs past Fed expectations into heavy government borrowing and an elevated term premium, a combination she calls a less comfortable environment for highly valued equities.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.39% | Up five basis points |
| 5-Year | 4.56% | Also five higher |
| 10-Year | 4.79% | Back to January 2025 levels |
| 30-Year | 5.27% |
| Commodity | Price | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $90.22 | +5.20% | October contract |
| Brent Crude | $94.65 | +4.60% | November contract |
| Gold | — | — | Lower a third straight session |
| Natural Gas | $2.95 | — |
| Currency | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index | 99.68 | +0.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1596 | -0.20% |
| USD/JPY | 160.19 | +0.27% |
Both crude figures above are exchange settlements. Gold falling for a third session while missiles fly is the day's genuine oddity, and the explanation is arithmetic: metal that pays no coupon competes badly against a Treasury note yielding nearly 4.8%.
Technicals
Broad-index positioning is mixed without being broken. At 7,631.47 the benchmark sits under a 20-day average of 7,712.85 while holding 66 points above the 50-day at 7,565.89, which is the first level worth watching on further weakness. The Nasdaq Composite occupies similar ground, 26,099.77 against a 50-day of 25,950.02. Small caps have already failed both tests, the Russell 2000 finishing at 2,920.13 with its 50-day at 2,990.58 overhead.
Two-year notes at 4.39% and ten-year notes at 4.79% both sit above the range that held through August. The two-year moved most, and the front of the curve is where a policy error gets priced first.
Breakouts
ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $136.19, a 52-week high, having spent the session clearing its summer range. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) also finished at a 52-week high of $383.00, and Chevron (CVX) added 2.38% to $211.05. The sector fund itself closed at a 52-week high of $64.77, which means this is participation rather than one crowded name.
Breakdowns
Dell Technologies (DELL) lost its 50-day average at $434.22 during the session, closing at $425.00 before its results arrived. Micron (MU) closed at $933.44, also under a 50-day of $945.94, with the August peak above $1,200 now a distant reference. Utilities remain the structural laggard despite the bounce, with XLU at $42.56 against a 200-day of $44.70.
Top Movers
Gainers
GoPro (GPRO), +40.4% to $1.23. The camera maker agreed to a recapitalisation led by Starman Optical that values it at $285 million. Holders take $1.14 a share in cash and keep roughly a tenth of the combined company, which is why the shares changed hands above the headline price; GoPro stays listed and about $92 million of debt is repaid at closing. The YouTube creator Markiplier, who has disclosed an 8.5% stake, is the largest single shareholder.
Duolingo (DUOL), +7.0% to $158.77. Evercore ISI raised the language-learning company to Outperform from In Line and doubled its price target to $210 from $105, telling clients its 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates now sit 10% and 25% above consensus. Daily active users grew 23% to 58.7 million in the most recent quarter.
Apple (AAPL), +2.6% to $325.13. John Ternus became chief executive today under the succession Apple set out in April, with Tim Cook moving to executive chairman after fifteen years. Apple was the strongest of the megacaps on a day its sector fell 1.53%.
ConocoPhillips (COP), +2.8% to $136.19. Producers, not refiners, led energy today as the crude move fed straight into realisations.
Losers
Dell Technologies (DELL), -6.8% to $425.00. Holders cut exposure ahead of an evening report, and then the report cleared every bar: revenue of $46.97 billion against $44.92 billion expected, adjusted earnings of $7.04 a share against $4.92. Management now expects AI server revenue to triple this fiscal year and lifted the full-year revenue outlook by $25 billion to $192 billion. The stock rose about 10% after hours, recovering the session's loss and more.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW), -5.2% to $362.09. The security company fell into its own results after a year-to-date advance of nearly 100% left it near 85 times forward earnings. Fourth-quarter revenue grew 34% to $3.41 billion against $3.35 billion expected, adjusted earnings were $1.02 against $0.98, next-generation security recurring revenue rose 63% to $9.10 billion, and the October-quarter guide of $3.30 billion to $3.31 billion beat consensus. Shares still slipped after hours, which is what happens when a beat is the entry requirement rather than the surprise.
Schlumberger (SLB), -4.9% to $57.15. The oilfield services company gave back Monday's advance, which had carried it to a 52-week closing high of $60.10 after it agreed to buy the heat-exchanger maker Kelvion for $3.4 billion. Service names traded with the yield move today instead of the crude move, and Weatherford and Tetra Technologies fell alongside it.
MongoDB (MDB), -4.2% to $434.21. The database company sold off with the rest of high-multiple software before reporting second-quarter revenue of $771.8 million, up 30%, with Atlas up 29% and free cash flow nearly doubled to $137.6 million. It raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $2.99 billion to $3.03 billion.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTS job openings (July) | 7.27M | 7.30M | Slightly light |
| ISM manufacturing (Aug) | 54.6 | 55.2 | Missed, still expanding |
| ISM prices paid (Aug) | 71.1 | 70.5 | Above consensus |
The detail inside the JOLTS report did more work than the headline. Hiring in professional and business services fell by 188,000, a category that usually turns before the broader labour market does, and it lands three days before Friday's payrolls report. Prices paid above consensus keeps the manufacturing cost picture uncomfortable for a central bank that has started discussing hikes again.
Notable Earnings This Session
Four large companies reported around this session, one of them before the opening bell and three after the close.
Pre-Open
Medtronic (MDT) was the only substantial morning report, and it closed up 1.53% at $92.04, well off its early gain.
Post-Close
Dell, Palo Alto Networks and MongoDB all reported after the close, and all three beat and raised; the details are in Top Movers above. Broadcom (AVGO) is due after Wednesday's close, the week's remaining test of whether AI infrastructure demand still surprises to the upside.
Drivers
1. Whether the Dell reaction survives the morning. A 10% after-hours move on a $25 billion increase to the full-year outlook is the clearest evidence yet that AI infrastructure spending is still accelerating and has yet to plateau. The risk is that the same rising discount rate punishing every other growth name eventually reaches this one too, and the opening print will show which force is stronger.
2. The auction calendar against a 4.79% ten-year. Supply meets a market that has repriced the Fed twice in a week, and a soft reception would push yields onto ground last covered in the opening weeks of 2025. Watch the two-year, which moved most today.
3. Crude's overnight behaviour after a 5.2% settlement gain. Every hour the Strait of Hormuz stays contested adds to an inflation problem the Federal Reserve has already said it is unhappy with, and the barrel is now doing more to shape this month's decision than any single data release will. ADP's private payrolls report lands at 8:15 a.m. Eastern.