Indexes

Sector Heat Map

The rotation was the inverse of Wednesday's session: software and AI-adjacent technology led, energy joined the bid as crude rebounded on overnight strike headlines, and the defensive complex that carried Wednesday's Dow record gave back ground. Tech beat staples by roughly 200 basis points, the cleanest pro-cyclical rotation since the May 19 close.

In the News

Drivers

1. The Dell, Costco and Ulta open after tonight's prints. Dell is the marquee AI-server read after Marvell's "sell the news" reaction Wednesday; a clean beat with a raised FY27 AI revenue guide is what the chip and server complex needs to extend the Snowflake-led leg of the rally. Costco frames the consumer-staples spend trajectory at a moment when PCE just printed 3.8% and the saving rate keeps slipping. Ulta is the discretionary tell for the beauty-and-services subgroup.

2. Friday's Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the University of Michigan final May sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI consensus is 41.5 versus the prior 44.6 and a soft reading would extend the regional manufacturing softness that the Richmond Fed result temporarily masked Wednesday. The Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectation will get scrutiny after PCE hit a three-year high; a move back above the 4% preliminary print would put the long-end Treasury rally further at risk.

3. The Iran-Hormuz tape into the weekend. The ballistic missile launch at the US base in Kuwait and the CENTCOM strikes near the Strait raise the probability that the 60-day ceasefire-extension framework gets shelved before the weekend. If Brent closes the week above $97 and the Hormuz reopening timeline slips beyond 30 days, the energy bid that lifted XLE today is likely to extend, with downstream implications for the next CPI and PCE prints and the front-end rates pricing.

SPY daily — third consecutive record close; tech reassumed leadership on the Snowflake-led software rally.

SNOW daily — best single-day move ever as the $6 billion AWS agreement and 126% NRR reacceleration cleared the SaaSpocalypse overhang.

HPQ daily — gap below the 200-day on the fiscal-year EPS guide cut; sets up Dell's print tonight.

CRM daily — extended below the 200-day after the light Q2 guide; now the worst Dow performer year-to-date.

IBM daily — gained on the $15 billion quantum-and-AI investment plan and the federal-equity-stake confirmation.

Rates, FX, Commodities

The bond market reversed Wednesday's duration-relief bid as the hot PCE report and the overnight Iran-Kuwait escalation pushed yields higher, with the 10-year climbing back above the 4.50% reference and snapping a five-session decline. The dollar held near 99.30 and crude reversed more than half of Wednesday's Hormuz-restoration plunge as the strike headlines reignited supply risk.

Technicals

The S&P 500 closed at 7,563, a fresh record above the 7,520 prior-session shelf and now roughly 2.8% above the 50-day moving average near 7,360 and 6.5% above the 200-day near 7,100. First-line support is 7,520; resistance steps up to 7,600 and the 7,650 measured-move target. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,917 cleared the 27,000 round number intraday before settling just below, with 27,000 the next visible reference. The 10-year yield at 4.53% reclaimed the 4.50% level after four sessions below; a confirmed close back above 4.60% would reopen the 4.70% May high.

SNOW (Snowflake), hourly. The cleanest breakout of the session and the year — shares gapped through the $190 shelf at the open and held above $230 into the close on the AWS deal and Q1 reacceleration.

Breakouts & Breakdowns

Breakouts

Snowflake (SNOW) — gapped through the $190 prior-resistance shelf at the open and closed at a fresh 52-week high above $230 on its largest single-day move ever. The next visible reference is the $250 round number; the 50-day at $172 is now the line in the sand for the breakout call.

Oracle (ORCL) — cleared the $260 cluster that capped trading through April and May on roughly 6% volume, with the 50-day reclaimed and the prior-cycle high near $275 the next reference. The breakout extends the AI-infrastructure leadership theme beyond the chip layer.

Breakdowns

HP Inc (HPQ) — gapped below the 200-day moving average at the open on the fiscal Q2 EPS guide cut, lost the $25 prior-support shelf and closed near $23.50. Next visible reference is the spring trading-range low near $22.

Salesforce (CRM) — extended below the 200-day moving average and the $245 prior-support shelf following Wednesday's light Q2 guide, with the stock now testing the $235 May low. A confirmed close below opens the prior-cycle base near $225.

Top Movers

Gainers

Snowflake (SNOW) surged roughly 36% in its best single-day move ever after reporting Q1 FY27 product revenue of $1.39 billion (up 33%) and announcing a five-year, $6 billion compute and AI infrastructure agreement with Amazon Web Services. Net revenue retention reaccelerated to 126%, and management lifted the full-year revenue guide. The implication is that AI-driven data-platform spend is offsetting the legacy seat-license deceleration that has weighed on the broader software group; ServiceNow (NOW), Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) all gained at least 6% in sympathy.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) climbed about 17.6% on its best single-day performance in nearly four years after reporting Q1 sales of $4.98 billion (up 7.2%) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 (versus $1.55 consensus). Comparable sales rose 3.5% and gross margin expanded 120 basis points to 36.9% on lower freight and reduced shrink. Management raised the full-year guide to $6.70-$7.10 and the DoorDash delivery expansion adds another trip-frequency lever. Five Below (FIVE) and Dollar General (DG) traded firm on the read-through.

Best Buy (BBY) gained more than 9% after reporting Q1 revenue of $8.94 billion (up 1.9%) and adjusted EPS of $1.28 (versus $1.23 consensus). The domestic gross profit rate at 23.7% beat consensus and management held the full-year outlook unchanged despite the tariff overhang. The read-through is that the consumer-electronics replacement cycle is intact even with PCE running at 3.8%.

International Business Machines (IBM) added roughly 3% after announcing a $10 billion investment over five years toward a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 and an additional $5 billion in AI-linked open-source software. The company also confirmed a Trump administration plan to take equity stakes in nine quantum firms, with IBM slated for half of the $2 billion federal commitment. IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) traded sharply higher in sympathy on the broader quantum bid.

Losers

HP Inc (HPQ) fell about 7% after the fiscal Q2 report. Revenue of $14.4 billion (up 9%) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 both beat consensus, but management cut the full-year non-GAAP EPS range to $2.15-$2.45 from $2.47-$2.77, citing component-cost inflation and a softer consumer-PC outlook. The cut reframes the PC replacement cycle that bulls have been counting on into late 2026 and pulls Dell (DELL), which reports tonight, into the conversation.

Salesforce (CRM) declined roughly 5% in regular trading after the prior-evening Q1 FY27 report. Revenue of $11.13 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.88 both beat consensus, but current remaining performance obligation growth cooled to 14% year-over-year from 16% the prior quarter and Q2 revenue guidance of $11.27-$11.35 billion landed at the low end of the sell-side range. The stock is now down roughly 33% year-to-date, the worst performer in the Dow. The market continues to demand evidence that Agentforce revenue can offset the legacy seat-license deceleration; tonight's Workday (WDAY) earnings are the next read.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) traded down roughly 2% intraday despite a Q1 beat (revenue $2.42 billion, EPS $0.80) and a Q2 guide above consensus ($2.7 billion, EPS $0.93). The "sell the news" reaction echoes the Nvidia and Micron post-earnings setups earlier this month and reflects profit-taking after the stock's roughly 145% year-to-date run. Shares recovered some of the loss into the close.

Key Macro Data Today

The morning data wall delivered the stagflationary mix the bond market had been pricing against: Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6% on softer inventory and services consumption, while April headline PCE hit 3.8%, the hottest reading since May 2023. Core PCE at 3.3% was in line but firmest since October 2023. The combination pushed the 10-year yield back above 4.50% and reframed the easing-bias narrative that the prior session's FOMC minutes had reinforced. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari struck a hawkish tone in afternoon comments, saying reducing inflation remains his top priority.

Notable Earnings This Session

Pre-Open

Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat on Q1 and raised the full-year guide, sending shares up roughly 17.6%. Best Buy (BBY) beat on Q1 EPS and revenue with the stock gaining more than 9%. HP Inc (HPQ) beat on the fiscal Q2 print but cut full-year guidance, with shares down about 7%. Burlington Stores (BURL) and Foot Locker (FL) also reported, with the off-price and athletic-footwear groups absorbing the read-through from Wednesday's Dick's Sporting Goods commentary.

Post-Close

Dell Technologies (DELL) reports fiscal Q1 2027 with the AI server backlog the marquee number; consensus is calling for adjusted EPS near $2.95 and the focus is on whether management raises the full-year AI server revenue outlook. Costco Wholesale (COST) is expected to deliver GAAP EPS near $4.92 with traffic and gas-station fuel volumes the two operating lines under the most scrutiny. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) reports with consensus at $7.26; the question is whether the Sephora-at-Kohls competitive pressure has stabilized. Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported Wednesday post-close and Workday (WDAY) reports tonight as the next software-group read after Snowflake and Salesforce.

What Drove the Tape

Three storylines defined the session. First, the morning PCE and GDP combination delivered a stagflationary mix that pushed the 10-year yield back above 4.50% and snapped Wednesday's four-session duration rally; headline PCE at 3.8% confirmed the Hormuz energy shock is bleeding into the broader consumer basket, while the GDP downward revision to 1.6% kept the soft-landing question open. Second, Snowflake's roughly 36% surge on the $6 billion AWS deal and the reacceleration in net revenue retention to 126% reignited the software group, with ServiceNow, Oracle and Palantir all up at least 6% as the SaaSpocalypse narrative took a hit. Third, the overnight US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's ballistic missile launch at a US base in Kuwait reversed Wednesday's diplomatic-track relief in oil, sending Brent back toward $97 and pulling the energy complex higher. The cross-asset signal was uneven: equities led by AI software broke to new highs while the rates and oil tape priced renewed inflation risk.