Ringside · Post-Bell · Jun 04
- Friday's May employment report is the marquee release of the week.
- The footing of the chip group is the second question.
- Oil and the Iran talks stay the wild card.
Indexes
A disappointing artificial-intelligence forecast from Broadcom knocked the chip leaders at the open, yet the selling never spread. Money rotated out of the crowded technology trade and into banks, health insurers, real estate and small companies, carrying the Dow to a fresh record while the Nasdaq finished just in the red.
| Index | Close | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,584.31 | +0.41% | Rebounded toward Tuesday's record |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,830.96 | -0.09% | Held back by the chip names |
| Dow Jones | 51,561.93 | +1.73% | Record close, up about 875 points |
| Russell 2000 | 2,935.33 | +1.45% | Small caps joined the advance |
| VIX | 15.40 | -4.35% | Volatility eased back toward 15 |
The split was unusually wide: the Dow finished about 875 points higher at a record while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged on the chips, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.53% to 30,407.81.
Sector Heat Map
Eight of the eleven sectors rose, and the leadership came from the parts of the market left behind during the AI rally.
| Sector ETF | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care (XLV) | +2.76% | Managed-care names led |
| Financials (XLF) | +2.47% | Banks and brokers rallied |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +2.00% | Helped by softer yields |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.86% | Steady advance |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.84% | Cyclicals firmed |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.29% | Modest gain |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.14% | Roughly steady |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.09% | Chips offset by Nvidia's strength |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.26% | Slipped with crude |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.41% | Eased |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.93% | The day's laggard |
This was a broadening rather than a flight to safety. Health care, financials and rate-sensitive real estate drew the money leaving the semiconductors, small caps took part, and the defensive staples finished at the bottom of the table, the reverse of a fearful session.
In the News
Drivers
Friday's May employment report is the marquee release of the week. After a softer private hiring count earlier in the week and today's rise in jobless claims, a weak payrolls figure would strengthen the case for rate cuts and could keep the rotation into rate-sensitive groups running, while a hot number would push yields back up and challenge the rebound. How the bond market reacts will steer stocks into the weekend.
The footing of the chip group is the second question. Broadcom's break leaves the semiconductors at a crossroads, and the path now depends on whether Nvidia's resilience holds and whether Micron and Broadcom find buyers near support, or whether another round of selling pulls the AI names lower. The decision on index membership changes, expected Friday, adds a wrinkle for Marvell and its peers.
Oil and the Iran talks stay the wild card. Crude has slid two sessions running on hopes for a pause in the fighting, and a genuine move toward calm would keep downward pressure on energy costs and ease the squeeze on the Federal Reserve. Should the negotiations collapse, or shipping lanes around the Strait of Hormuz come under fresh threat, oil and the inflation worry would snap straight back.
Rates, FX, Commodities
Yields eased across the curve as oil fell and the data did little to change the outlook, leaving the dollar steady and crude lower for a second day.
| Treasury | Yield | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.07% | -0.49% | Eased near the floor of its range |
| 5-Year | 4.19% | -0.62% | The belly led the move lower |
| 10-Year | 4.48% | -0.31% | Down toward the middle of its band |
| 30-Year | 4.98% | -0.24% | Held just below 5% |
The gap between two- and ten-year yields held near +40 basis points. The two-year level is cross-sourced and will be confirmed against the official Treasury series.
| FX | Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.44 | -0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1614 | +0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 160.01 | +0.04% |
| Commodity | Price | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $92.97 | -2.25% |
| Brent Crude | $95.18 | -1.72% |
| Gold | $4,503.30 | +0.28% |
| Natural Gas | $3.35 | +3.71% |
| Copper | $6.53 | +1.04% |
West Texas Intermediate fell to $92.97 a barrel, a second straight decline, as diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran cooled the supply fears that had lifted crude earlier in the week. The retreat in energy costs took pressure off bond yields and reinforced the move into rate-sensitive groups. Gold edged up to $4,503 an ounce, and natural gas added 3.7%.
Technicals
Underneath the rebound, one group did the damage. The S&P 500 closed at 7,584.31, recovering most of Wednesday's drop and stopping just shy of Tuesday's 7,609.78 record, which now caps the upside, with the 7,520 area as support and the 50-day average near the low-7,100s. The Nasdaq Composite at 26,830.96 stayed above the 27,000 zone it has circled for a week, pinned by the semiconductors rather than broad weakness. Yields slipped within their ranges, the 10-year near 4.48% sliding toward the lower half of its 4.40%-to-4.60% band, where a close beneath 4.40% would argue for a more dovish path. Broadcom was the chart that mattered, gapping far below its 20- and 50-day averages on heavy volume and defining the near-term risk for the entire semiconductor group. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan ran the other way, printing new highs as the banks drew the rotation bid.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Goldman Sachs (GS) closed at a record $1,092.61, clearing the prior high near $1,074 with the financials' rally; that old high now becomes the first level to defend, with the round $1,050 mark below it.
JPMorgan (JPM) rose to $310.89, breaking out to a new high as money rotated into the big banks; the breakout level near $300 is the line bulls now want to hold on any pullback.
Breakdowns
Broadcom (AVGO) lost the high-$470s shelf and sliced through its 20- and 50-day averages to close at $418.91; with that support gone, the prior breakout zone near $400 is the next line, and below it the gap toward the high-$380s comes into view.
Micron (MU) gave back the $1,000 round number it had reclaimed this week, closing at $996.00 after touching $971.68 intraday; a daily close below the low-$970s would open the door toward the mid-$900s.
Top Movers
Gainers
UnitedHealth (UNH) rose 5.2% to $396.47, the standout among the large insurers, after Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and lifted its target to $450, citing signs that medical-cost pressure is starting to ease. Morgan Stanley followed with a target increase to $453. The gain extended a recovery in one of the year's most troubled megacaps and lifted health care to the top of the sectors.
Goldman Sachs (GS) gained 4.8% to a record $1,092.61 as financials led the rotation and the firm sat at the center of a booming market for new listings. Goldman is the lead underwriter on SpaceX's $75 billion offering, which priced today, and was named to lead Anthropic's eventual IPO. A pipeline of giant deals points to a strong stretch of investment-banking and advisory fees.
Marvell (MRVL) added 4.9% to a closing high of $316.43, recovering from an early dip alongside the chip group to finish near the top of its range. The stock continues to ride momentum from Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang's description of it as a likely future trillion-dollar company, and a Stifel target increase to a Street-high $321. A widely expected addition to the S&P 500, with index changes due Friday, is the next catalyst.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.8% to $218.66, bucking the semiconductor selling as investors separated its dominance in merchant graphics processors from the custom-chip outlook that hurt Broadcom. The chip leader's resilience kept the technology sector narrowly positive and helped the broad market hold up. Its path from here will steer how the rest of the AI group trades.
Losers
Broadcom (AVGO) fell 12.6% to $418.91, the heaviest drag on the chip group, after its guidance for next-quarter artificial-intelligence chip revenue of $16 billion landed below the $17.2 billion analysts expected and it declined to raise its longer-term AI outlook. The quarter itself beat estimates and management lifted its overall revenue guide, yet the stock suffered its worst day in months because a market positioned for a bigger beat-and-raise got neither on the AI line. A wave of analysts still raised price targets, with Mizuho and others urging clients to buy the decline.
Micron (MU) dropped 7.7% to $996.00, slipping back below the $1 trillion market value it had reached Tuesday as the memory leader caught the full force of the chip de-rating. The selling came even as analysts kept lifting estimates on a memory-pricing upcycle, while one note flagged that prices may be nearing a near-term ceiling. Memory tends to lead both the advances and the pullbacks in the group.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell 3.8% to $719.09, recovering from a steeper drop earlier in the day, after a fiscal first quarter that beat estimates, raised full-year guidance and came with a four-for-one stock split still failed to satisfy a stock up roughly 60% in a month. Investors focused on the pace of recurring-revenue growth and a jump in operating expenses rather than the headline beat, echoing how richly valued software names have been treated after strong reports.
Key Macro Data Today
A light calendar kept the focus on tomorrow's payrolls, with no major release able to shift the outlook.
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (wk. May 30) | 225K | 213K | 212K |
First-time unemployment filings climbed to a four-month high of 225,000, a touch above expectations, though economists attributed much of the jump to seasonal noise around the late-May holiday and still read the labor market as steady. A separate revision showed first-quarter worker productivity a little weaker than first reported. Neither reading shifted the outlook much with the May payrolls report due Friday.
Notable Earnings This Session
Pre-open reporting was sparse, leaving the chip reaction and the data to carry the session, with the marquee consumer name saved for the evening.
Pre-Open
No major company reported before the open. Investor attention stayed on the fallout from Wednesday evening's technology results, covered in the movers section above, and on the morning's jobless claims figure.
Post-Close
After the close, Lululemon (LULU) was the headline report. The athletic-apparel maker earned an adjusted $1.69 per share on revenue of $2.47 billion, both modestly ahead of expectations, with comparable sales up 1%. The shares fell about 9% in late trading as the company lowered its full-year earnings guidance to a band of $10.95 to $11.15, down from $12.10 to $12.30, citing tariffs and markdowns weighing on margins. The stock had already fallen sharply this year. DocuSign (DOCU) also reported, posting revenue of $830 million, up 9% from a year earlier, alongside record share buybacks, while Rubrik (RBRK) rounded out the evening's software docket.
What Drove the Tape
One company set the tone, and the market chose to read it as an opportunity. Broadcom's results beat and the company raised its overall outlook, but its guidance for next-quarter AI-chip revenue came in light of what investors had priced and its longer-term AI outlook stayed put, and the stock fell almost 13% while dragging Micron and the rest of the semiconductor group lower. Rather than sink the market, that stumble in its most crowded trade freed money to move elsewhere, and it flowed into financials, health care, real estate and small companies, lifting the Dow to a record even as the Nasdaq slipped. Softer Treasury yields and a second straight pullback in oil, down on signs of progress between Washington and Tehran, supported the rate-sensitive groups and eased the inflation worry that had pressured stocks a day earlier. A four-month high in jobless claims barely registered, leaving Friday's payrolls as the next real test.