Ringside · Post-Bell · August 7
- Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July against a forecast of 83,000 added.
- The S&P 500 finished at 7,757.64, past the 7,736.52 record set Tuesday.
- Odds of a September hold rose to 60% from 45%; CPI arrives August 12.
Indexes
An hour before the opening bell the Labor Department reported that payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and revisions took another 103,000 positions out of May and June. Equity investors read a weakening labour market as the case against the rate increase three Fed officials dissented in favour of last week, and bought accordingly. A close of 7,757.64 on the S&P 500 clears the prior record of 7,736.52 set on Tuesday by 21.12 points, verified against five years of the index's own closing history. Breadth backed it up: nine of eleven sectors finished green, the Russell 2000 rose 1.10%, and the volatility index eased to 14.90. The one number that frames the session sits in rate futures, where the probability of no move in September climbed to 60% from 45% on Thursday, per CME's FedWatch tool.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,757.64 | +0.62% | Range 7,719.19 to 7,763.08 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,690.62 | +1.30% | Still 1.49% under the June 2 peak |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 54,036.93 | +0.28% | 312 points below Wednesday's high mark |
| Russell 2000 | 3,034.49 | +1.10% | Ends 2.49 points shy of Tuesday |
On the week: S&P 500 +3.58%, Nasdaq Composite +5.19%, Dow +2.96%, Russell 2000 +3.52%. A second consecutive weekly advance for all four.
Sector Heat Map
Two commodity sectors book-end the table, and the ranking in between tracks sensitivity to the front end of the curve.
| Sector ETF | % Chg | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| XLY | +1.49% | Consumer Discretionary |
| XLK | +1.42% | Technology |
| XLB | +1.32% | Materials |
| XLV | +0.75% | Health Care |
| XLU | +0.53% | Utilities |
| XLRE | +0.38% | Real Estate |
| XLI | +0.23% | Industrials |
| XLC | +0.06% | Communication Services |
| XLP | +0.01% | Consumer Staples |
| XLF | -0.36% | Financials |
| XLE | -1.13% | Energy |
Long-duration growth and the metals complex took the honours while banks and energy paid for the same news, which is what a fading-tightening trade looks like alongside softer crude.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Almost all of the repricing landed at the front of the curve. Two-year notes yield 4.199%, their lowest since July 17, after a decline of more than four basis points, while the ten-year surrendered two. That leaves 45 basis points between them, a slightly steeper curve than Thursday's.
| Treasury | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.199% | Weakest since July 17 |
| 5-Year | 4.357% | |
| 10-Year | 4.649% | |
| 30-Year | 5.202% | A basis point lower |
Bullion was the standout in commodities. Gold rose 2.35% as the case for higher policy rates thinned, and Newmont carried the move into the equity market.
| Commodity | Level | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,400.50 | +2.35% | December contract |
| Natural gas | $2.670 | +1.14% | |
| Brent crude | $82.34 | -0.18% | Third session inside $2 |
| WTI crude | $77.25 | -0.05% | Four cents under Thursday |
| Dollar index | 99.61 | -0.36% |
Crude sat between a possible Hormuz shipping agreement and continued attacks on vessels. Neither story won.
Technicals
At 7,757.64 the S&P 500 sits 232 points above its twenty-day average of 7,525.41 and 707 above the two-hundred-day at 7,050.03, with no prior close overhead anywhere on the chart. The Nasdaq 100 resolved the fifty-day question this morning's briefing left open, finishing at 29,722.30 and putting 353 points between itself and the 29,369.30 average it had been sitting on since Thursday. June 2's 30,660.60 is a further 3.2% overhead.
Two-year notes at 4.199% now sit at the bottom of the range they have held since mid-July. The July inflation report on Wednesday is what decides whether the range breaks or the market gives the yield back.
Palantir traded the shape of the whole session: a steady bid from the opening minutes, no giveback into the close.
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Breakouts
Newmont (NEM) at $112.98 puts $8.51 between the shares and a two-hundred-day average of $104.47 they closed within two cents of on Wednesday. Overhead is $131.95, the January 28 peak and the highest the shares have finished in a year.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed at $172.01, some 30% above a fifty-day average of $132.60 and $19.73 above the two-hundred-day. The November 3 close of $207.18 is the next reference.
SpaceX (SPCX) at $133.11 takes out Tuesday's $125.33 and everything lost in Wednesday's slide. The fifty-day average at $142.05 is the first real obstacle.
Breakdowns
Vistra (VST) finished at $140.59, under a twenty-day average of $153.56 and a fifty-day at $155.10 after reporting before the bell. Underneath sits the May 19 low of $134.71.
SanDisk (SNDK) at $1,212.21 trades $475.88 below its fifty-day average two sessions after results. The two-hundred-day at $872.25 measures how fast this year's advance arrived.
Levels, Revisited
Cloudflare (NET). This morning's indicated $330.43 was framed as clearing a $305.00 ceiling. It finished at $300.27, $1.06 under the August 4 close of $301.33. The breakout never printed.
Microsoft (MSFT). Flagged Thursday at $499.86, fourteen cents shy of $500. Today's close: $499.99.
AppLovin (APP). Thursday's $335.67 marked a twelve-month low. It held, and the shares recovered 3.32% to $346.80.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Flagged Wednesday at $482.05 beneath both near averages. Two sessions later: $483.36, still $30.72 under the fifty-day.
Uber Technologies (UBER). Marked Wednesday at $68.18 below all three of its averages. Two sessions took it to $75.02, back above the twenty-day and the fifty-day.
Top Movers
Gainers
Doximity (DOCS) +32.62% to $27.40. The medical network guided the full year to $671 million to $681 million after first-quarter revenue of $156.6 million beat by $4.9 million. The gain understates what happened. Shares were quoted at $40.25 before the open, so buyers who waited for the bell got a very different price from the one the overnight screen showed.
Airbnb (ABNB) +17.43% to $178.07. Second-quarter gross booking value of $27.2 billion and a full-year margin floor lifted to 35.5% drew the opposite treatment, with the session more than doubling the 7.6% indicated before the bell. No prior finish in the past year sits above it.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) +10.32% to $172.01. No company news arrived; the rest of the agentic-software group re-rated alongside it, with UiPath and C3.ai up 7% and 5%. Bank of America lifted its target to $255, and some of the velocity looks like short covering after Tuesday's 29.45% move on 93% revenue growth.
Losers
The Trade Desk (TTD) -21.90% to $13.80. Third-quarter guidance 19.4% below consensus produced the weakest finish the stock has recorded in a year, and downgrades followed overnight. Management says it retained more than 95% of clients, so the shortfall is showing up in what those clients spend rather than in how many of them stay.
Under Armour (UAA) -4.53% to $6.11. Earnings beat at 5 cents while revenue of $1.10 billion came in light, and fiscal 2027 revenue is now guided to a mid-single-digit decline where the prior outlook called for a slight one. Leaving the profit range untouched points the cut squarely at demand.
Key Macro Data Today
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (July) | -23K | +83K | +20K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Average hourly earnings, y/y | +3.2% | +3.5% | +3.3% |
Where the losses came from matters as much as the headline. Local government education shed 50,000 positions and retail 19,000, while private payrolls still added 30,000 and health care contributed 22,000, below its twelve-month average of 36,000. Wages rose two cents to $37.62 an hour, the slowest annual growth since May 2021. The revisions did the real damage: May cut by 66,000 to 63,000, June by 37,000 to 20,000.
Notable Earnings This Session
Pre-Open
Four reports arrived before the bell and the market argued with most of them. Oklo (OKLO) climbed 14.77% to $48.42 despite an adjusted loss of $0.28 where $0.16 was modelled, because revenue came in at $1.21 million where the street modelled $83,800, and the Groves isotope reactor reached first criticality Thursday. Wendy's (WEN) rose 4.06% to $7.69 on revenue of $571 million, a beat, delivered alongside a dividend cut to 28 cents annualised, a withdrawn 2026 outlook and a 7.0% drop in domestic same-restaurant sales; Trian's exploration of a take-private is what the shares are trading on. Vistra (VST) slipped 0.56% to $140.59.
Post-Close
Nothing reports tonight.
Drivers
- Wednesday, August 12 brings the July consumer price index, and it carries more weight than the report just delivered. Three members of the committee voted for a rate increase on July 29 on the strength of energy prices, and a soft labour market does not answer them. The employment figure bought the market a week; the inflation figure decides whether it keeps the ground.
- Small caps offer the cleanest test of how broad this move is. The Russell 2000 ended 2.49 points from its own best close, and the Nasdaq Composite remains 1.49% under the level it reached on June 2.
- Crude is the variable that can undo the inflation math. JPMorgan's base case has Brent averaging $80 in the fourth quarter and $63 across 2027, but the same note puts fair value near $114 if Hormuz disruption runs another three months. Brent settled at $82.34 on Friday.