Ringside · Post-Bell · August 24
- Washington doubles duties on Canadian cars, trucks and steel to 50% from January 1, 2027.
- Semiconductors carried the market down: Micron off 5.83%, the SOXX chip fund 2.67%.
- Treasury weighs spending a $950 billion cash account on buybacks; ten-year yield 4.704%.
Indexes
America's three main averages spent Monday disagreeing about what mattered. Semiconductors did the visible damage: Micron lost 5.83%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.49% and Broadcom 2.63%, dragging the iShares Semiconductor fund (SOXX) down 2.67% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.76%, while the Dow finished 140.15 points higher on packaged goods, insurers and banks. Relief for everything outside the chip aisle came from the bond market, where CNBC reported that the Treasury is weighing whether to draw on a general account holding close to $950 billion to pay for the larger debt buybacks it announced this month; the ten-year yield closed at 4.704% against Friday's 4.738%. Cutting the other way, eight minutes after the opening bell President Trump said duties on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts double to 50% on January 1, 2027, taking Stellantis (STLA) down 3.51% and General Motors (GM) 1.08%. Eight of the eleven sectors closed higher, with technology, energy and industrials supplying the losing side. The Russell 2000 ended at 2,995.08, back beneath 3,000 for the second time in three sessions.
| Index | Close | % Chg | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,652.86 | -0.28% | 7,638.17 – 7,670.30 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,980.19 | -0.76% | 25,910.82 – 26,109.96 |
| Dow Jones | 53,417.16 | +0.26% | 53,261.95 – 53,508.18 |
| Russell 2000 | 2,995.08 | -0.76% | 2,991.24 – 3,015.06 |
| VIX | 15.85 | +4.76% | 15.61 – 16.06 |
Sector Heat Map
The ordering below is what a nervous week produces: dividends and weekly purchases at the top, 2028 earnings at the bottom.
| Sector | % Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Staples (XLP) | +1.70% | Coca-Cola set a 52-week closing high |
| Financials (XLF) | +1.29% | JPMorgan added 1.37% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +1.05% | Long yields retreated |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.83% | Alphabet and Meta both firm |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.55% | |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.24% | Tesla held it back |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.07% | |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.05% | |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.69% | |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.83% | Crude settled 2.47% lower |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.78% | Chips supplied nearly all of it |
Defence beat offence by three and a half percentage points top to bottom, which describes a funding rotation more than a growth scare. Cheaper long money lifts the bond substitutes and does nothing at all for a chipmaker.
In the News
Rates, FX, Commodities
Long-dated Treasuries did the work, and a wire story set them off. No data release was involved.
| Treasury | Yield | Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 4.24% | — | Friday's Fed publication, the latest |
| 5-Year | 4.408% | -1.6 bp | |
| 10-Year | 4.704% | -3.4 bp | August has held a 12 bp band |
| 30-Year | 5.231% | -4.5 bp | 7.8 bp under August 17's peak |
The long end fell further than the front, giving back some of last week's steepening. Buybacks concentrate in longer nominal coupons, which is why a story about funding them lands hardest at thirty years.
| Currency | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index | 99.001 | +0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1667 | -0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 159.113 | +0.11% |
| Commodity | Level | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Oct) | $84.89 | -2.49% |
| Brent crude (Oct) | $92.06 | -2.46% |
| Gold (spot) | $4,639.19 | +0.69% |
| Natural gas (Sep) | $2.732 | -1.48% |
Both crude benchmarks are exchange settlements reported by CNBC rather than the later screen quote; gold is spot and natural gas the Henry Hub front month, both Monday marks from Trading Economics. Crude fell on the day the sanctions arrived, which reads less like disbelief than like a market that had already bought the blockade and found the paperwork familiar.
Technicals
Broad indices first. A 7,652.86 finish put the S&P 500 0.05% under its 20-day average of 7,656.41, close enough that Tuesday's first hour decides it, with the 50-day 1.41% lower at 7,546.22. The Nasdaq 100 ended at 29,023.18, a third consecutive close beneath a 50-day average now at 29,316.44. The Russell 2000's 2,995.08 leaves it 0.26% above a 50-day line at 2,987.37, which matters more than the round number just overhead.
In government bonds the ten-year's 4.704% sits inside a band that has contained every August close between 4.617% and 4.738%. A move outside twelve basis points would be the first new information the month has produced. The thirty-year at 5.231% is 7.8 basis points below its August 17 peak of 5.309%.
Breakouts
Coca-Cola (KO) closed at $91.99, a 52-week closing high, 8.86% above its 50-day average of $84.50. Costco (COST) at $971.40 reclaimed a 200-day average of $959.44 last cleared on August 18.
Breakdowns
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) at $107.63 posted its lowest close since July 31, 15.65% under a 50-day average of $127.60. Broadcom (AVGO) ended at $358.76, 2.84% beneath a 200-day average of $369.23.
Top Movers
Gainers
Walmart (WMT) +2.69% to $106.49. No announcement accompanied the move, which came four sessions after a report that missed on American comparable sales and left the shares 10.17% under their 200-day average.
Costco (COST) +2.50% to $971.40. Costco carried no news of its own either, and the buying looked like the reflex that lifted the staples group 1.70%. The arithmetic underneath is what separates the two: adjusted American comparable sales rose 6.9% in July against Walmart's 2.6% for its quarter.
UnitedHealth (UNH) +2.22% to $398.76. The insurer gained without a filing or a guidance change, and the move still leaves it 3.60% below its 50-day average of $413.66. Health care as a whole managed 0.05%, so this was one name rather than a sector.
Losers
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) -13.77% to $107.63. The optical component maker agreed with Raymond James and Needham to sell up to $600 million of stock through at-the-market offerings, and the shares fell on the dilution before anyone argued about the use of proceeds. Management had said on the second-quarter call it already raised $538.8 million net under an earlier program and spent $565.5 million on capital investment in the quarter. The optical group followed: Coherent (COHR) fell 4.85% to $275.49, Lumentum (LITE) 4.22% to $830.17 and Corning (GLW) 2.86% to $145.55.
XPeng (XPEV) -8.53% to $11.15. Second-quarter revenue of 19.74 billion yuan rose 8% from a year ago but landed under the 20.57 billion analysts had modelled, and the third-quarter outlook came in soft on top of it. Deliveries of 103,295 vehicles were 65% above the first quarter and gross margin held at 20.7%, so the shortfall was pricing and mix rather than demand. Its humanoid robotics arm raised $900 million at a valuation the company put above $6.2 billion, which the market treated as a separate matter.
Seagate (STX) -6.51% to $794.65 and SanDisk (SNDK) -6.45% to $1,493.12. American storage names tracked Seoul's overnight decline and kept going, Seagate closing 10.71% under its 50-day average. Neither said anything.
Micron (MU) -5.83% to $910.43. Micron lost the 50-day average it had reclaimed on Friday and finished 5.45% underneath it. Memory pricing has been the strongest part of the semiconductor story all year, which is why a session that questions capital spending anywhere in the chain reaches it first. Marvell (MRVL) fell 3.27% to $229.29 and reports this week.
Tesla (TSLA) -3.83% to $348.95. Two things landed on the same day: the Canadian auto tariff doubling, and a filing to recall 2.98 million vehicles in China. The shares closed 4.36% under a 50-day average of $364.85, with the July 29 low of $298.32 the next reference beneath.
Key Macro Data Today
Monday's calendar held a single line item, and nobody trades it.
| Release | Time (ET) | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul) | 8:30 | +0.06 | -0.08 |
The three-month average slipped to -0.04 from +0.01. The index averages 85 monthly series that are mostly published already, so it confirms more than it reveals, and a reading this close to zero describes growth at trend.
Notable Earnings This Session
Pre-Open
Both Chinese reporters are covered above: PDD Holdings (PDD) closed 1.48% lower at $87.07 after beating on profit and missing on revenue, and XPeng (XPEV) fell 8.53%.
Post-Close
Nothing of consequence after the bell. Nvidia (NVDA) arrives Wednesday afternoon; its shares have closed lower in the session following three of its last four quarterly reports.
Drivers
- Consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern is expected at 90.8, and it carries more weight than usual because the Conference Board asks households about prices and jobs at the moment tariffs on the Canadian trading relationship are being written into 2027 contracts. July new home sales land at the same hour, against a June reading of 628,000, and the Case-Shiller index for June arrives at 9 a.m.
- Will thirty-year paper hold Monday's gain once the report stops being new? The Treasury has already said it will at least double long-end liquidity support operations, from $2 billion to $4 billion apiece, running September 9 to November 4, and Secretary Bessent has said they could run larger than that. What moved Monday was the possibility that a $950 billion cash balance stands behind them, which nobody has confirmed.
- Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close, and Monday shrank the cushion. The shares finished at $208.48, just 0.40% above a 50-day average of $207.65 and 11.6% below the May 14 closing high of $235.74.