Cub Football - What it will take to earn a playoff invitation
LOYOLA HAS TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
On Friday night in San Diego County's Spring Valley, Loyola (1-3) will play its final non-league game of the season against the San Diego Union Tribune's eighth-ranked team, the undefeated Mount Miguel Matadors (4-0), the defending CIF San Diego Section Division IV champions.
It is not a must-win contest for the Cubs, but for a variety of reasons it might as well be. A win would put Loyola on a two-game winning streak and provide much needed momentum going into the treacherous Mission League schedule a week from Friday when the Cubs host powerful Gardena Serra at Smith Field.
A win against Mount Miguel would likely keep Loyola's current ranking by CalPreps intact which would be favorable in terms of the regular season's ultimate final ranking which is a factor in determining playoff consideration under the CIF Southern Section's competitive equity system.
CalHi Sports is much higher on Mount Miguel than CalPreps. CalHi Sports ranks the Matatadors as a team on the bubble of its state Top 50. CalPreps ranks Mount Miguel as the 125th squad in the state with a dismal strength of schedule rating of -6.7.
Should the Cubs return from San Diego with a loss they will drop significantly in both the Southern Section and state rankings.
PLAYOFFS ARE THE GOAL
Moving up from the Angelus League to the Mission League this season has made the prospects of earning a playoff invitation exponentially more challenging for the Cubs.
A top three finish in the six-team Mission League is the only outcome that will guarantee a playoff berth for Loyola, as the first through third finishers in six team leagues are guaranteed playoff berths by the CIF Southern Section. To conclude the regular season campaign in the Mission League's top three spots would most likely require the Cubs to win three conference games.
Here's a look at Loyola and its five league opponents (in order per CalPreps rankings) and the strength of schedules of each team as they stand now:
SIERRA CANYON (2-3) Southern Section/State rank: 6/7 Strength of Schedule (SOS): 66.8 Results: Wins: 35-10 Oaks Christian, Punahou 30-7; Losses: JSerra 35-7, St. John Bosco 38-28, Orange Lutheran 33-26
SERRA (Gardena) (2-2) Southern Section/State rank: 14/19 SOS: 45.7 Results: Wins: L.B.Poly 27-21, Warren 36-0; Losses Orange Lutheran 21-13, Oaks Christian 13-6
BISHOP AMAT (2-2) Southern Section/State rank: 29/49 SOS: 26 Results: Wins: Vista Murrieta 47-42, West Covina 49-6; Losses: Rancho Cucamonga 21-19, St. Paul 21-12
CHAMINADE (1-4) Southern Section/State Rank: 38/64 SOS: 40.7 Results: Wins: Saguaro (Scottsdale, Az) 35-14; Losses: Servite 14-0, Oaks Christian 24-7, Cathedral Catholic (San Diego) 34-13, Cathedral (L.A.) 35-14
LOYOLA (1-3) Southern Section/ State rank: 44/76 SOS: 34.7 Results: Wins: St. Francis 35-7; Losses: Cathedral (L.A.) 16-13 (2 OT), Damien 30-29, Leuzinger 40-30
NOTRE DAME (Sherman Oaks) (3-2) Southern Section/State rank: 46/81 SOS: 22 Results: Wins: Bishop Diego (Santa Barbara) 35-34, St. Francis 35-34, Westlake 42-10; Losses: Servite 38-17, Downey 42-21
Based upon results and strength of schedules to date, the top two teams in the Mission League, Sierra Canyon and Serra, project to play for the conference title.
In terms of strength of schedule, Loyola possesses the second best rating among the other four league teams.
Currently, the Cubs project to finish in fifth place ahead of only Notre Dame if the current order of rankings remains the same through the last week of the regular season.
When looking at comparative scores among common opponents, Loyola has good reason to be optimistic.
Notre Dame beat winless St. Francis by only two points, 36-34. The Cubs dominated the Golden Knights last Friday in a 35-7 road victory.
Loyola lost to Cathedral in the season opener 16-13 in double overtime. Chaminade was routed by Cathedral 35-14.
Digging deeper into score comparisons, Bishop Amat lost to St. Paul, 21-12, while St. Paul was blown out by Damien 37-10, to whom the Cubs lost by one point, 30-29.
Loyola's three losses were to teams ranked ninth (Leuzinger), 19th (Damien), and 31st (Cathedral) in the CIF Southern Section by Cal Preps. Those three losses were by a combined total of just 14 points (10, one and three points, respectively).
The losses to both Cathedral and Damien could have easily been wins but for a failed 4th and inches play at the goal line against the Phantoms and the failure to stop just one of three successful two-point conversion attempts by the Spartans.
Suffice to say, the Cubs have a good chance to notch some wins in the Mission League if they continue to improve and play a disciplined and hard nosed brand of football.
WHAT IT ALL MEANS
A third place finish in league, as indicated above, would assure Loyola of a trip to the Southern Section playoffs.
The Cubs were in the Mission League in 2019, and finished fifth, but still made the CIF Division 4 playoffs with a 3-6 regular season record. Loyola lost in the title game at Smith Field in a down-to-the-wire battle against San Juan Hills at Smith Field.
Last season Notre Dame finished the campaign with a 5-5 record and a fifth place finish in the Mission League, but the Knights failed to make the playoffs.
The Cubs indeed control their own destiny starting this Friday.
HOW COMPETITIVE EQUITY WORKS
The CIF Southern Section has been using the competitive equity system for divisional playoff placement since 2016.
Under the old playoff system, the top two teams from five-school leagues and the top three teams from six-school conference were guaranteed playoff berths, and that is still the case with rare exceptions. But leagues were assigned divisions before the season.
The competitive equity system does not place teams in playoff divisions until after the last regular season games are played. A highly ranked team could therefore be slotted into a higher playoff division than a lower ranked team from the same league. The rankings by CalPreps are utilized by the CIF Southern Section to place all playoff teams in their respective divisions.
That is why a Loyola win this Friday is so important for a potential at-large playoff berth, as a loss to a lower ranked team will cause a team to drop in the rankings.
If the season ended today and the Cubs were still ranked 44th in the CIF Southern Section by Cal Preps, and they were selected as a playoff team, they would probably be placed in the CIF Southern Section Division 4 playoff bracket.
There is a lot to play for.
EXTRA POINTS
Loyola's undefeated sophomore (4-0) and freshman (4-0) squads will journey to Spring Valley for games against Mount Miguel on Saturday at 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m., respectively. The freshmen will have their hands full against a Matador team that beat Rancho Buena Vista 72-0 . . . Former Cub All-American defensive back CEYAIR WRIGHT '21 transferred from USC to Nebraska in the offseason. In his first extended action for the Cornhuskers last Saturday against Indiana, WRIGHT had a standout day. He finished the contest with four tackles, three pressures (one sack and two hurries) and a forced fumble . . . Another former Cub All-American corner DAVID LONG, Jr. '16 is now on the practice squad of the Indianapolis Colts . . . ALEX JOHNSON '19, an All-League corner for Loyola in 2018 and an All-PAC-12 DB at UCLA remains on the practice squad of the New York Giants . . . Former All-League lineman COLEMAN SHELTON '13, an All-PAC-12 offensive lineman at Washington, is the starting center for the Chicago Cubs. He is in his seventh season in the NFL . . . All-State, team MVP MYLES BRYANT '16 is playing nickel for the HOUSTON TEXANS.
CUBS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Below is the list of Loyola graduates playing college football in 2024 according to published collegiate rosters:
CHAD BAILEY ‘20, DB, Bentley University
NICHOLAS BARR-MIRA ‘19, K, Mississippi State
COLIN CRUCE ‘22, OL, Bowdoin
JEFFREY JOHNSON ‘21, TE, Cal
LUKE HARRISON ‘24, OL, University of San Diego
ANDREW KOZHAYA ‘21, OL, Grinnel
SEAN LIN '22, DL, Columbia
LEIGHTON LINE ‘23, DL, Cal Lutheran
CONNOR McDOWELL ‘21, DB, Angelo State
BLAKE NEITHART ‘20, DB, Carleton
TAHJ OWENS '22, DB, Princeton
RYAN QUINTANAR '20, LB, USC
ISAIAH SANDERS, ‘24, LB, UC Davis
PATRICK SODL ‘22, LB, Columbia
HENRY STICKLER ‘21, WR, SMU
JACK SUSNJAR ‘23, OL, USC
JOE TATUM ‘22, QB, Texas
EVAN THOMAS ‘20, DB, UCLA
RYAN TURK ‘24, OL, Dartmouth
ALEX WHITMAN ‘22, WR, Notre Dame
CHAMP WESTBROOKS ‘24, OL, Arizona State
CEYAIR WRIGHT ‘21, DB, Nebraska
SAM YOON ‘22, OL, UCLA
2024 LOYOLA VARSITY FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
8-23 @ Cathedral (L, 16-13, 2OT)
8-30 Damien (L, 30-29)
9-13 @ Leuzinger (L, 40-30)
9-20 @ St. Francis (W, 35-7)
9-27 @ Mount Miguel (Spring Valley, San Diego)
10-4 Serra (Home)*
10-11 @ Bishop Amat*
10-18 Chaminade (Home)*
10-25 @ Sierra Canyon*
11-1 Notre Dame (Home)*
All games on Fridays @ 7:00 p.m. * Denotes Mission League game