Hey,

A quick one that might sting a little.

You can win 7 out of every 10 trades and still grind your account to zero. Not from bad luck — from math you agreed to the moment you set your stop and your target.

Here's the case that makes it obvious. Take 100 trades. Win 70, lose 30. Sounds great. But say each winner makes $10 and each loser costs $30 — the classic tight-target, wide-stop setup.

• 70 wins × $10 = $700
• 30 losses × $30 = $900

You were right 70% of the time and finished down $200. Excellent win rate. Shrinking account.

That's expected value talking: 0.7 × $10 − 0.3 × $30 = −$2 per trade. Every click, you volunteer to lose two dollars on average.

The line I want you to keep: you're not paid by how often you're right. You're paid by expected value. Win rate is the ingredient traders overweight because being right feels good. But feeling smart doesn't compound capital.

And here's the trap — chasing a high win rate is easy. Just take profit early and give losers room. It works until one wide-stop loser erases six winners.

What a disciplined trader does: track three numbers together — average win, average loss, and win percentage — not win rate alone. Then size so a normal losing streak can't take you out before the math has a chance to work.

Quick reminder: this is educational commentary, not personalized financial advice.

Next time someone brags about an 80% win rate, ask one question: how big is your average loser? That answer tells you whether they have an edge or a comfortable way of going broke.

Full breakdown with the numbers on screen here: https://youtu.be/x2YKUJAna38

Signal, not hype.