QQQ puts almost always cost more than QQQ calls the same distance out of the money. Not sometimes -- almost every single trading day, calm tape or scary tape.

Most traders read that backwards. They see expensive puts, decide the smart money is bearish, and short into it. Then QQQ grinds higher for three months while the puts bleed. The skew never went away. It was steep the whole rally.

That's the tell: if skew were a forecast, that couldn't keep happening.

Here's the cleaner way to hold it. You own a $500k house. You buy fire insurance -- everyone does. Almost nobody buys a contract that pays out if the house doubles in value. So downside protection gets bid up and upside doesn't. That gap is skew. It's a demand imbalance for insurance, not a prediction the house burns.

QQQ is the same. Pensions, funds, and retirement accounts are already long tech, and their pain is a crash. So there's constant structural demand for puts and constant selling of calls for income. Put IV up, call IV down. The skew is just the fingerprint of who owns the asset and what scares them.

The line to keep: skew is the price of insurance, not a prediction of the accident.

What a disciplined trader does with it: treat skew as a cost input, not an opinion. Before you buy protection, check whether skew is cheap or rich versus its own recent range -- so you know if you're getting value or paying a crowded price. Before you sell downside premium, respect that the fat credit is payment for real tail risk, and size the position so a fast gap down can't end your account.

And keep two questions separate: (1) which way do I think QQQ goes -- that's your thesis; (2) how expensive is protection right now -- that's skew. Fuse them and you'll short a rally just because puts look pricey.

This is educational commentary, not personalized financial advice -- a process, not a recommendation.

Full breakdown, with the chain and numbers on screen: https://youtu.be/RN_LJl11aOo

-- Paragon