Hey,

I want to walk you through a number that took me too long to internalize.

A trader wrong 60% of the time can end the year with more money than one right 70% of the time. Same market. Same starting capital. And no, it's not a word trick — it's arithmetic.

Here's the simplest version. Two traders, $100 each, ten trades.

Trader A wins 7 of 10, but takes tiny +$10 profits and freezes on losers for -$30. Net: down $20 — while being right 70% of the time.

Trader B wins only 4 of 10, but lets winners run to +$50 and cuts losers at -$10. Net: up $140 — while wrong more than half the time.

The number that actually pays you isn't win rate. It's expected value: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Trader A runs at −$2 a trade. Trader B runs at +$14. Being right is one term in that equation. It is not the equation.

The kicker: if your winners are 3x your losers, you only need a 25% win rate to break even. Above that, you make money being wrong 75% of the time.

This is educational commentary, not personalized financial advice — but here's the takeaway I actually use.

What a disciplined trader does: define your exit before you enter. Cap the loss, let the winner run, so the payoff ratio is engineered instead of hoped for. Then size each position so a losing streak is boring, not fatal. Stop tracking win rate. Track expected value per trade.

Because a positive edge you bet too big still bankrupts you. Risk 2% and lose six in a row? Down ~11%, still alive. Risk 20% on the same streak? Gone before the edge ever shows up.

The line I keep at my screen: you're paid by expected value, not by being right.

Full breakdown with the tables and the math here: https://youtu.be/Pp0IItCf69I

— Paragon Signals