Here's an uncomfortable one.

You can win 70% of your trades and still make nothing. Not through bad luck — consistently. And it happens to premium sellers all the time.

Take a simple SPY put credit spread. $100 wide, you collect $30. Win, you keep $30. Lose, you're down $70. Now win 70% of the time over ten trades:

• Seven wins × $30 = $210
• Three losses × $70 = $210

Net: zero. Before commissions and slippage. After those, it's a slow bleed.

The trap is that a high win rate feels like edge. It isn't. Win rate only tells you how often you're right — nothing about how much you win versus how much you lose. And in premium selling, that ratio is stacked against you on purpose. You collect small and often, then pay it all back in rare, large losses. You're not collecting income. You're selling insurance, and most sellers ignore the hurricane math.

The line to keep: you're paid by expected value, not by being right.

This is educational commentary, not personalized financial advice — but here's what a disciplined trader actually does: they compute expectancy before the trade. Average win times win rate, minus average loss times loss rate. On the example above that's 30 × 0.7 − 70 × 0.3 = 0. No edge. So they widen the credit, tighten the strike, or pass. And they size so a run of five or six losses — which will happen — barely dents the account.

One more: ten spreads across SPY, QQQ, and tech names aren't ten trades. On a red day they lose together. That's one oversized bet wearing a diversification costume.

Next time you see someone's win rate, ask the only question that matters: what's the average win versus the average loss?

Full walkthrough here: https://youtu.be/MuUj_ZwPoKk

— Paragon Signals