Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Trump's Tariff Wall Is a Complicated Patchwork — and the Biggest Hits Are Still Coming

atlantic_council

• The Trump administration's new tariff regime is far more complex than the simple "Liberation Day" announcement suggested, with a maze of exemptions, carveouts, and overlapping investigations that produce wildly different effective rates by country.
• The winners and losers are surprising: India's effective tariff rate has plummeted from 50% to under 4%, while Asian economies like Bangladesh and Cambodia face higher real rates despite low headline numbers, and China's negotiating leverage has actually grown.
• A pending Section 301 investigation into industrial overcapacity — covering more than 75% of total US imports — means the current tariff landscape is just a prelude to a much larger reckoning.

AI Companies Are Racing to Automate Their Own Research — Here's How the US Should Prepare

institute_for_progress

• Over 1,300 employees at frontier AI companies have called on the US government to develop tools to slow down automated AI research, warning that companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could fully automate their own R&D by 2028, potentially accelerating AI capabilities in ways that outpace human oversight.
• The authors find the core concern plausible but uncertain — AI software engineering capabilities are improving fast, but there's no clear evidence yet that partial automation is actually speeding up AI progress overall.
• Rather than endorsing a hard slowdown, the report proposes 23 preparatory policies focused on transparency, risk monitoring, and building regulatory capacity now — so that if risks materialize, the government can respond thoughtfully rather than with a panicked crackdown.

Xi Jinping's Courtship of Kim Jong-un Is About Much More Than North Korea

csis

• For the first time in seven years, Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang in June 2026, signaling a deliberate effort to reset China-North Korea relations — most notably by listing military cooperation as a goal, an unprecedented move in the public readout of a summit.
• The reset is driven by Beijing's anxiety over Russia's deepening grip on North Korea since the Ukraine war, a desire to remind Washington that no Korea deal happens without China, and a bid to pressure Japan amid its military buildup.
• China has quietly dropped any mention of denuclearization from its Korea diplomacy, suggesting Beijing may be tacitly accepting North Korea as a nuclear state in exchange for strategic leverage.

In the News

Iran Is Using Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems as a Weapon of Information Warfare, Not Just Disruption

csis

• Iran's cyber operations have shifted from opportunistic, low-sophistication attacks to a coordinated campaign directly supporting its military objectives, including using hacked telecom networks to locate U.S. troops for kinetic strikes.
• Attacks on U.S. water facilities, gas stations, and local governments are best understood as information warfare — designed to erode public confidence and project Iranian power — rather than as attempts to cause physical harm.
• AI is amplifying Iran's cyber capabilities in speed and scale, but Iran remains constrained by damaged physical infrastructure; its cyber operations are a secondary tool behind its real leverage: control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Kevin Warsh Is Already Losing His Own Fed

employ_america

• Just two meetings into his tenure as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh has alienated both hawks and doves on the FOMC by refusing to articulate any monetary policy framework — leaving markets confused and his colleagues openly defiant.
• Warsh's colleagues have responded by giving more speeches, not fewer, explaining their own frameworks and pushing back against his preference for silence, his AI optimism, and his governance reform plans.
• Critics warn that Warsh's opacity might be manageable in calm times but could prove dangerous in a crisis, when the Fed's credibility and internal cohesion matter most.

Also Worth a Look

• Tariff Uncertainty May Be Costing the Economy More Than the Tariffs Themselves (hoover)
• Should You Scrap a Working Gas Car to Buy an EV? The Climate Math Is Complicated (science)
• The Science Behind Fibermaxxing Is Surprisingly Solid (knowable)
• AI Can Now Find Software Bugs Cheaply Enough That 'We Can't Be Held Responsible' Is No Longer a Defensible Legal Position (csis)
• How Bangladesh Dismantled Its Own Vaccine System and Sparked the World's Biggest Measles Outbreak (think_global_health)
• The Fed's retreat from forward guidance could actually be good news for emerging markets (atlantic_council)
• Ukraine is running out of missiles to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles — and its only real option may be going on offense (atlantic_council)