Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

People Support Populists Because They Wrongly Think Populists Deliver Better Economic Results — and Correcting That Misconception Actually Changes Their Votes

nber

• A survey experiment with over 11,000 Argentinians during the 2023 presidential election found that voters widely overestimated the economic performance of populist and authoritarian regimes — and those optimistic misperceptions strongly predicted support for such candidates.
• When researchers gave voters accurate information challenging those beliefs, people updated their views and reduced their support for populist and authoritarian candidates, suggesting misinformation is a meaningful driver of democratic backsliding.
• The catch: correcting people's beliefs also made them less eager to seek out more information, a sign that motivated reasoning kicks in — people don't like having their priors challenged and partly tune out as a result.

Uber's Data Shows Occupational Licensing Doesn't Actually Make Drivers Safer or Better

nber

• A new study using Uber's own trip-level data — including driver ratings and telematics measures of driving behavior — finds no consistent evidence that licensed drivers perform better than unlicensed ones.
• Researchers exploited a natural experiment comparing NYC and New Jersey drivers, plus a Houston deregulation event, to cleanly isolate the effect of licensing.
• The findings add rigorous fuel to a longstanding debate: occupational licensing may protect incumbents more than consumers.

Childhood Vaccination Rates Keep Falling, and the Measles Surge Shows Why That Matters

kff

• Kindergarten vaccination rates have dropped from 95% before the pandemic to around 92% today, with 39 states now below the 95% threshold needed to prevent measles outbreaks — leaving roughly 280,000 kids unprotected.
• Non-medical exemptions from school vaccine requirements have nearly doubled since 2019, and almost half of all states now have exemption rates so high that herd immunity is mathematically unreachable even if every non-exempt child got vaccinated.
• The U.S. is on track for its worst measles year since 1991, and the problem is likely to get worse as the Trump administration rolls back federal vaccine guidance and some states loosen exemption rules.

In the News

The Iran War Is Causing an Energy Crisis — But Countries That Invested in Clean Energy Are Holding Up Better

wri

• A military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices near $100 a barrel and triggered fuel emergencies in countries heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports.
• Countries that built out clean energy — China with EVs and renewables, Pakistan with distributed solar, France and Spain with nuclear and wind — are weathering the crisis better because their energy is domestically produced and insulated from global commodity prices.
• The article argues that the strongest case for clean energy today isn't climate or health benefits, but energy security: no geopolitical chokepoint can block the sun or wind.

Analysis

Business Owners in State Legislatures Don't Just Push Pro-Business Bills — They Push Bills That Help New Competitors In

nber

• Entrepreneur-legislators (those who both own and actively manage firms) make up over 40% of state legislators, but they don't simply champion generic pro-business legislation or bills backed by Chambers of Commerce.
• Instead, they selectively sponsor "pro-entry" bills that reduce barriers for new firms — focused on deregulation and innovation — suggesting they act more like entrepreneurs than as protectors of incumbent business interests.
• The study uses a novel dataset linking financial disclosures to bill sponsorship across 26 states, with AI used to classify legislation, making it one of the first rigorous looks at how business ownership shapes lawmaking from the inside.

Also Worth a Look

• The Great Recession Didn't Just Cost Adults Their Jobs — It Widened the Achievement Gap for Black and Low-Income Kids (nber)
• When overdose deaths spike locally, doctors prescribe more addiction treatment — but only where they were already doing so (nber)
• The Palestinian Economy Is Trapped by the Israeli Shekel — and Reconstruction Could Be the Chance to Break Free (atlantic_council)
• Faster payments like Zelle are shrinking bank deposits — and that has implications for monetary policy (nber)
• Childhood Vaccination Rates Are Falling, and States Are Making It Easier to Opt Out (kff)
• Trump's Solicitor General Has Been Quietly Winning at the Supreme Court Through Strategic Case Design (scotusblog)
• Chinese Censorship Is Leaking into Answers from American AI (hoover)