Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Oil companies are sitting on $272 billion in war windfall profits — and not investing it, which undercuts the main argument against taxing them

the_conversation

• The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has handed the global oil and gas industry an estimated $495 billion windfall in 2026, prompting three separate bills in Congress to tax those profits — with even Trump saying oil companies are "making too much money."
• The standard industry argument against windfall taxes — that they would deter investment — is undermined by the data: the biggest oil companies are sitting on the cash rather than investing it, with buybacks falling and dividends flat.
• A cautionary tale from the 1980s U.S. windfall tax shows that revenue projections tend to be wildly optimistic (actual collections were one-fifth of projections), and the current congressional proposals are poorly designed compared to textbook models used in Norway and Australia.

Companies Using AI to Justify Layoffs Are Undermining the Very Productivity Gains They're Chasing

the_conversation

• New research analyzing millions of Glassdoor reviews and thousands of earnings reports finds that AI-driven layoffs create deep worker hostility toward AI — and that employee sentiment toward AI is one of the strongest predictors of whether AI actually boosts a firm's productivity.
• The pattern is self-defeating: companies cut staff to show a financial return on AI investment, but the resulting job insecurity makes remaining workers resist the AI tools they're supposed to embrace, wiping out the expected efficiency gains.
• Stock markets have largely seen through the strategy too — the average return on AI-related layoff announcements is close to zero, suggesting investors sense the hidden costs even if executives don't.

Europe Can't Mine Its Way Out of Its Dependence on Chinese Rare Earths

atlantic_council

• China controls about 91% of global rare earth refining capacity, meaning even if Europe mines more domestically, it still depends on China to process the materials — and Beijing has already shown it will weaponize that leverage.
• The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act sets ambitious 2030 targets, but most strategic projects are underfunded, behind schedule, or both, and private capital won't fill the gap because geopolitical supply risks are nearly impossible to price.
• Rather than chasing full independence — which the Northvolt debacle suggests is prohibitively expensive — Europe's best bet is building a resilient network of allied suppliers backed by joint tools like price floors, offtake guarantees, and strategic stockpiles.

In the News

A Progressive Muslim Democrat Just Won a Michigan Senate Primary Against Long Odds — Now Comes the Hard Part

the_conversation

• Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary despite being outspent 9-to-1, largely by AIPAC-backed groups, winning on the strength of Arab-American, young, and progressive voters.
• He now faces Republican Mike Rogers in a dead-heat general election, where he'll need to unite a fractured Democratic Party — including establishment figures who backed his opponent and at least one prominent Democrat who won't support him.
• El-Sayed will likely face Islamophobic attacks and false claims about his background, while trying to tie Rogers to an unpopular Trump in a state that could determine control of the Senate.

Analysis

Congress Has Always Been a Rich Kids' Club, and Reform Has Never Changed That

hoover

• Researchers linked every member of Congress born between 1830 and 1950 to census records and found they consistently came from the wealthiest, most educated families in America — a pattern that has held or worsened over 150 years.
• About half of a congressman's socioeconomic advantage over ordinary Americans was shared with his brothers, suggesting family background — not just individual talent — is the key driver.
• Four major Progressive Era reforms — women's suffrage, the secret ballot, direct primaries, and direct election of senators — produced no measurable change in the elite family origins of those who reached Congress.

Also Worth a Look

• Republicans Are Turning on the Supreme Court After Trump's Biggest Losses (scotusblog)
• Trump Has Stripped Temporary Protected Status from Over a Million Immigrants — and the Supreme Court Just Made It Easier (pew)
• Trump's tariffs are losing in court, and the legal battles over refunds are just getting started (csis)
• Trump Administration Presses Supreme Court to Save Its Mail-In Ballot Rules Before the Midterms (scotusblog)
• PACs Are Deliberately Choosing Misleading Names to Fool Voters — and It's Working (the_conversation)
• China is quietly reshaping the rules of open-source technology — and AI is the next battleground (the_conversation)
• Trump's Order to Split the MMR Vaccine Into Three Shots Is Medically Meaningless — But the Real Damage Is Elsewhere (the_conversation)