Nonrival

May 18, 2026

Human experts + AI summaries - on public policy, economics, and technology.

Moderate voters choose extreme candidates because they don't trust moderates to stay loyal to the party

yale_som

• New Yale research finds that voters often elect extreme politicians not despite their extremism, but because of it—they view extreme candidates as more reliable party representatives on future unknown issues.
• When voters are uncertain about a politician's stance on upcoming policy questions, they assume more ideologically pure candidates will consistently champion party positions, even if those candidates don't reflect their current preferences.
• The study suggests this paradox could be reduced if moderate candidates revealed more of their policy positions upfront, giving voters less reason to doubt their party loyalty.

Trump and Xi's Summit Delivers Modest Trade Deals but Avoids the Hard Issues

csis

• Trump and Xi agreed to small-scale economic measures including agricultural sales, a reduced Boeing aircraft order, and new trade dialogue mechanisms, but avoided sensitive topics like industrial policy and global trade imbalances.
• The summit established what Xi called "constructive strategic stability" for the next three years, suggesting both countries prefer managing competition over fundamental changes to their relationship.
• On Taiwan, Xi warned that mishandling the issue could undermine overall U.S.-China stability, while the presence of major U.S. tech CEOs appeared more about optics than concrete business breakthroughs.

AI Portfolio Manager Beats Wall Street by Learning to Trade Like a Human Chess Master

nber

• Researchers created AlphaPortfolio, an AI system that uses attention networks and reinforcement learning to build investment portfolios, achieving a Sharpe ratio above 2 and 13% risk-adjusted returns.
• Unlike traditional quantitative models that follow rigid rules, this AI learns complex trading patterns by paying attention to relationships between different stocks and market conditions over time.
• The system represents a breakthrough as arguably the first large-scale generative AI model designed specifically for finance, demonstrating that AI can outperform human portfolio managers across various market conditions.

In the News

How a Business School Professor Is Teaching Students to Use AI Without Losing Their Ability to Think

uva_darden

• UVA Darden professor Jared Harris is experimenting with fully embracing AI tools like ChatGPT in his strategy course while also teaching a literature-based ethics course that explicitly discourages AI use
• His approach aims to prepare students for AI-powered workplaces while ensuring they develop independent judgment — a balance tested when ChatGPT confidently gave students wrong answers on a quiz
• Harris argues that while AI can augment analysis and decision-making, the real risk is using it to outsource thinking entirely, which prevents the intellectual struggle needed to build genuine judgment

Analysis

GLP-1 Drugs Don't Improve Mental Health or Employment Despite Major Weight Loss

nber

• New research finds that GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy don't meaningfully improve mental health, self-reported health, employment prospects, or marriage rates among diabetic users despite causing significant weight loss
• The study tracked the same individuals over time as they began using GLP-1 medications, allowing researchers to measure changes within each person rather than comparing different groups
• These findings suggest the broader life benefits of GLP-1 drugs may be more limited than expected, which matters for evaluating their full economic and social value

Also Worth a Look

• The U.S. Is Starting to Pay the Price for Decades of Borrowing From the World (ny_fed)
• Companies Are Burning Through Cash to Fund the AI Boom (stl_fed)
• Why Middle Powers Can't Actually Break Free From the US and China (atlantic_council)
• Why Studies of AI's Impact on Wages Are Getting It Wrong (nber)
• South Korea's population is set to shrink: what would it take to stop the decline? (ourworldindata)
• Distressed Companies Pay an Extra 5 Percentage Points Because Lenders Exploit Their Desperation (nber)
• Trump and Xi Want to Stabilize U.S.-China Ties. Now Comes the Hard Part. (hoover)