Nonrival

March 26, 2026

Human experts + AI summaries - on public policy, economics, and technology.

The $143 Million Secret: How Insiders Are Getting Rich on Prediction Markets

harvard_corpgov

• Researchers found systematic insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket, with traders making $143 million in suspicious profits over two years by betting on events like military strikes and corporate announcements using non-public information.
• Current securities and commodities laws have major gaps when applied to prediction markets, creating a regulatory gray area that lets informed traders profit from classified military intel, corporate secrets, and even celebrity gossip with little legal risk.
• The study analyzed 93,000 markets and found flagged traders won 69.9% of the time—a result so statistically unlikely it exceeds random chance by 60 standard deviations.

Iran's Arsenal Dwindles as Gulf War Enters Fourth Week

csis

• U.S. and Israeli forces have struck over 15,000 targets in Iran during the first three weeks of "Operation Epic Fury," with 70% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers now disabled
• Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf states have dropped dramatically from initial salvos of 700+ per day to much lower levels as inventories are depleted and manufacturing capacity is destroyed
• Gulf state air defenses are achieving high interception rates against remaining Iranian attacks, but their own missile inventories are running dangerously low

The Art of the Charitable Deal: How Companies Buy Goodwill Before Buyouts

harvard_corpgov

• Companies increase charitable donations to target communities by 19% in the two years before announcing mergers, with over $1 million per deal on average going to strategically chosen local charities.
• This "targeted philanthropy" aims to win over key stakeholders who could make or break deals—from target company executives and employees to regulators—by funding charities they care about.
• The strategy works: donations to employee-focused charities and powerful shareholders correlate with lower deal premiums and smoother integrations, while donations to executives' pet causes often signal wasteful spending by acquiring companies.

In the News

Americans Shrug Off Dollar-a-Gallon Gas Spike During Iran War

gallup

• Despite gas prices rising nearly a dollar per gallon since the U.S.-Iran war began, only 35% of Americans worry greatly about energy costs—unchanged from last year and well below the 47% who worried during 2022's price spike
• Just 2% of Americans cite gas prices as the nation's most important problem, far behind concerns about government (28%), the economy (15%), and immigration (14%)
• Energy concerns have become highly partisan, with Democrats twice as likely as Republicans to worry about energy availability and affordability under the Trump administration

Analysis

The Next AlphaFold: How Science Funders Can Build AI Models That Discover Natural Laws

institute_for_progress

• AlphaFold's success at predicting protein structures shows how AI models trained on scientific data can solve previously intractable problems by learning natural phenomena patterns
• "Natural Law Models" (NLMs) differ from general AI by being specifically trained on experimental data to uncover scientific principles, but each field faces unique data collection bottlenecks
• Science funders can accelerate discovery by targeting these data gaps through automated labs, standardized datasets, and training scientists to build domain-specific AI models

Also Worth a Look

• The FREEDOM Act Takes Aim at Washington's Weaponized Permitting (institute_for_progress)
• America's AI Edge Depends on Fixing the Electric Grid's Bureaucratic Bottleneck (institute_for_progress)
• The AI Boom's Dirty Secret: Data Centers Could Revive America's Coal Plants (eia)
• Why Trump's Voting Law Would Likely Fall to the Supreme Court (scotusblog)
• America's Sports Betting Boom Is Creating a Credit Crisis (ny_fed)
• The Pardon Power's Fall from Grace: How Presidential Mercy Became Political Currency (democracy_journal)
• Trump's Cuba Gambit: Military Threats Meet Economic Reality (politifact)