Nonrival

April 13, 2026

Human experts + AI summaries - on public policy, economics, and technology.

Economists and AI Experts Forecast 4% GDP Growth Under Rapid AI Progress, but Disagree on Job Losses

nber

• A new survey of economists, AI company employees, and forecasting experts predicts AI will boost U.S. GDP growth to around 4% annually under rapid progress scenarios, well above typical baseline forecasts of 2%.
• Even under rapid AI advancement, experts expect labor force participation to fall from 62% to 55% by 2050, with about half that decline (roughly 10 million jobs) directly attributable to AI rather than demographic trends.
• The biggest disagreements aren't about how fast AI will advance, but about how much economic disruption highly capable AI systems will actually cause once they arrive.

China's Real Estate Collapse Mirrors Japan's 1990s Crisis, Raising Fears of Prolonged Stagnation

nber

• China's real estate sector has shifted from driving economic growth to becoming a major drag since 2018, with the sector and its linkages accounting for nearly one-third of aggregate demand.
• Housing represents 70% of Chinese household wealth, so falling prices are creating massive negative wealth effects that depress consumption and investment across the economy.
• Economists find striking parallels between China's current crisis and Japan's real estate collapse in the 1990s, suggesting China could face similar prolonged stagnation despite different institutional structures.

AI isn't destroying education — it's revealing how many students weren't really learning in the first place

lse_business_review

• AI tools like ChatGPT make it easier for students to cheat, but cheating in education existed long before AI through methods like ghostwriters and plagiarism.
• The real problem isn't AI itself, but using it merely to complete tasks faster rather than to strengthen the teaching-learning cycle between educators and students.
• When used thoughtfully by AI-literate educators and motivated learners, AI can actually enhance education through personalized materials, instant feedback, and more effective teaching methods.

In the News

Trump's Executive Orders Are Dismantling Federal Protections and Health Programs for LGBTQ+ Americans

kff

• President Trump issued sweeping executive orders on his first day that rescind Biden-era LGBTQ+ protections and redefine sex as strictly binary, effectively eliminating federal recognition of gender identity.
• The orders ban federal funding for what the administration calls "gender ideology," threatening HIV programs, community health centers, and gender-affirming care access, including at VA facilities.
• Multiple lawsuits have challenged the orders, with some courts issuing temporary restraining orders to block funding cuts and restore health resources that were removed from federal websites.

Analysis

Why American Workers Are Getting Smaller Raises: The Job-Hopping Ladder Is Breaking Down

voxeu

• American workers are changing jobs less frequently than they used to, and this decline in job mobility is directly contributing to slower wage growth across the economy
• The traditional "job ladder" where workers climb to better-paying positions by switching employers has weakened significantly, reducing workers' bargaining power and opportunities for advancement
• This trend helps explain why wage growth has remained sluggish despite tight labor markets, as workers have fewer outside options to leverage for higher pay

Also Worth a Look

• Global Trade Imbalances Are Back, and They Could Destabilize the World Economy Again (voxeu)
• Large Waves of Immigration Push Voters Toward Anti-Immigration Parties, New European Data Shows (voxeu)
• As the Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets, Countries with Clean Power Are Weathering the Crisis Better (wri)
• Iran's 'Black Rain' Shows How Oil Wars Create Health Crises That Outlast the Fighting (think_global_health)
• NATO Faces a Production Crisis as Russia Outpaces European Weapons Manufacturing (atlantic_council)
• Instead of Fighting Iran for Control of the Strait of Hormuz, the US Should Build Around It (atlantic_council)
• Hungary's Orbán Loses Power in Landslide as Opposition Wins Two-Thirds Majority (atlantic_council)