Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

A Study of 1,440 Statistical Models Shows How Easily Minimum Wage Research Can Be Manipulated

nber

• Researchers built 1,440 different but defensible statistical models to estimate the employment effect of California's $20 fast-food minimum wage, finding that over 96% showed negative effects — but the magnitude varied wildly depending on how the model was set up.
• The findings expose a core weakness in 'synthetic control' methods, a popular technique in economics: small, hard-to-see choices by researchers can dramatically change the results.
• Simpler, more transparent statistical approaches landed near the middle of the range of estimates, suggesting they may be more reliable anchors than the trendier synthetic control method.

China Is Routing Exports Through Third Countries to Dodge US Tariffs — and It's Working

voxeu

• When the US imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods, Chinese exporters didn't simply absorb the hit — they rerouted shipments through third countries like Vietnam and Mexico to disguise their origin and evade tariffs.
• This 'trade deflection' or 'tariff washing' undermines the intended economic pressure of US trade policy, meaning the real impact of tariffs on China is significantly smaller than official trade statistics suggest.
• The findings raise serious questions about whether tariffs can ever be an effective tool against a determined trading partner with access to global supply chain networks.

Most Americans Still Aren't Turning to AI Chatbots for Election Information

pew

• Only 8% of U.S. adults say they are using AI chatbots to find information about the 2026 midterm elections, even as about half of Americans now use chatbots for other tasks.
• Among those who do use chatbots for election purposes, most are looking up candidate and issue information, while fewer are using them for voting logistics or deciding how to vote.
• Younger adults (under 50) are more than twice as likely as older adults to use chatbots for election information, mirroring broader generational patterns in AI adoption.

In the News

The founders of a hot AI startup have ties to a Chinese institute the UK linked to espionage

hoover

• Z.AI, an emerging artificial intelligence company, was co-founded by researchers who worked on projects funded by a Chinese institution that British authorities have connected to intelligence operations.
• The findings raise questions about technology transfer risks and whether Western investors or partners in Z.AI are adequately scrutinizing the startup's origins.
• The case illustrates the broader difficulty of tracking potential national security risks embedded in academic and research networks that feed into commercial AI ventures.

Analysis

Banning Religion Wasn't Enough to Change Gender Norms — But Tearing Down Churches Was

nber

• A study of Albania's 1967 religion ban — which made it the world's first officially atheist state — finds that simply outlawing religious practice didn't fully close gender gaps in education and employment.
• The key variable was whether religious buildings were physically demolished: women's schooling and work rose most sharply in places where no churches or mosques were left standing, suggesting that the visible presence of religious symbols kept old social norms alive even after the institutions behind them lost legal authority.
• The findings offer a rare natural experiment into how social norms persist — and what it actually takes to dislodge them.

Also Worth a Look

• A Third of Development Aid Is Now Labeled 'Climate-Related' — But Much of It Probably Would Have Been Spent Anyway (ourworldindata)
• Germany's Election Shows That Copying the Far Right Doesn't Help Center-Right Parties Win (voxeu)
• Zelensky's Reveal of North Korean POWs Was Probably a Deliberate Move to Pressure Pyongyang — and It's Backfiring With Seoul (csis)
• How China Is Using Surveillance, Propaganda, and Rewritten Sermons to Bring Religion to Heel (hoover)
• A US-Russia Data Center Deal Would Be a National Security Disaster (csis)
• How John Roberts Spent 40 Years Quietly Building the Case to Give Presidents Unlimited Power Over Federal Agencies (scotusblog)
• Social Media Has Become a Primary News Source for Most Americans, a Big Jump From Just Three Years Ago (pew)