Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Up to 3.8 Million Medicare Recipients Could Soon Get Coverage for Wegovy and Zepbound — at a Cost of Up to $10 Billion

kff

• A new KFF analysis finds 3.8 million Medicare beneficiaries are eligible for a temporary 18-month federal program launching July 1 that will cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound.
• The program's cost to taxpayers could range from $1.3 billion (if 10% of eligible people participate) to $10 billion (if 75% do), with beneficiaries paying a $50 monthly copay.
• Eligibility is narrower than it might appear: while 13 million Medicare recipients meet the BMI thresholds, only 3.8 million clear all the criteria, excluding those already on GLP-1s for diabetes or other covered conditions.

AI gives surprisingly good financial advice — but only if you know how to ask for it

voxeu

• A new study tested ChatGPT and Gemini against standard economic models of lifetime saving and investing, finding that AI advice pushes most people toward better habits: diversified equity, bigger savings buffers, and age-appropriate portfolio shifts.
• But the advice leans on crude rules of thumb, fails to smooth consumption during job losses, and varies significantly based on how users phrase their questions — meaning financial literacy remains a bottleneck even as the models improve.
• The AI also gives subtly different advice by gender: women receive lower equity recommendations, about two-thirds due to differences in how men and women write prompts, and one-third due to the model itself responding differently to identical questions.

Russians Are More Pessimistic About Their Economy Than at Any Point in Two Decades — and Losing Faith in Their Government Too

gallup

• A record 60% of Russians say their local economy is getting worse, surpassing even COVID-era pessimism, as wartime defense spending crowds out the civilian economy and labor shortages intensify.
• Confidence in the military, government, and elections has suffered its largest single-year drops ever recorded, suggesting Russian discontent now extends well beyond pocketbook concerns.
• Russia faces a trap: its economy has become so dependent on military spending that winding down the war could trigger a further downturn, making peace harder to choose even as public patience frays.

In the News

The Supreme Court Just Ruled That the Federal Reserve Is Too Important to Let Trump Fire Its Board Members on a Whim

the_conversation

• In a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, upholding a law requiring 'cause' for dismissal and faulting Trump for firing her via a social media post with unproven fraud allegations.
• The decision sits in awkward tension with a same-day ruling letting Trump fire the FTC chair, suggesting the Court carved out a special exception for the Fed rather than following a consistent legal principle.
• The majority's reasoning leaned heavily on the Fed's unique role in stabilizing the economy — a pragmatic 'legal realism' argument that Fed independence is simply too important to sacrifice to presidential authority.

Analysis

Private equity manages trillions of dollars almost entirely outside the courts — and that should worry us

harvard_corpgov

• In four decades of litigation involving the top and bottom 50 private equity firms, researchers found only 6 lawsuits brought by fund investors — because LPs fear being branded troublemakers and losing access to future deals, not because nothing goes wrong.
• The industry instead relies on quiet settlements, advisory committees, and reputational pressure, but these informal mechanisms favor large, sophisticated investors and leave smaller ones with almost no recourse.
• As policymakers consider opening private equity to retail investors and 401(k) plans, this research raises urgent questions about who protects ordinary investors in a market where the courthouse doors are effectively closed.

Also Worth a Look

• Ukrainians' approval of U.S. leadership has hit a historic low — just 7% — even as most want America's help to end the war (gallup)
• AI Safety Guardrails Can Be Bypassed With Basic Human Persuasion Tricks, Not Just Hacking (wharton)
• About 4 Million Medicare Patients Could Qualify for the New GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drug Program Starting in 2026 (kff)
• The Middle East Is Building Its Own AI Ecosystem to Escape US and Chinese Control (atlantic_council)
• The Supreme Court Just Gave Trump — and Every Future President — Control Over Dozens of Federal Agencies (scotusblog)
• The Supreme Court Just Ruled That Trump Cannot Fire Federal Reserve Board Members Without Real Cause (scotusblog)
• Semiconductor Prices Are Surging — and It Tells Us the AI Boom Has Entered a New Phase (stl_fed)