Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Europe Is Starting to Block American Tech Deals on National Security Grounds — and It Won't Stop Here

csis

• The Netherlands just made history by blocking a U.S. company (Kyndryl) from acquiring a Dutch cloud provider (Solvinity) that runs critical government services, citing fears that U.S. law could force the new owner to hand over sensitive Dutch citizen data to American authorities.
• The decision reflects a broader European pivot: what started as a digital privacy movement is now a national security conversation, with EU countries increasingly unwilling to let foreign firms — American or Chinese — control critical digital infrastructure.
• Companies eyeing Europe's €381 billion defense spending boom should expect investment screening to be a serious obstacle, as the architecture of data is now treated as a matter of sovereignty, not just a commercial asset.

Trump's Tariffs Accelerated Tech Supply Chain Shifts Away From China, but Left Clothing and Footwear Largely Untouched

peterson

• US imports of consumer electronics like smartphones and laptops held up in 2025 despite steep tariffs on China, because companies like Apple had already built alternative supply chains in India and Vietnam that could absorb the shift quickly.
• Clothing and footwear importers didn't make the same move — the tariff gap between China and other low-cost countries wasn't wide enough to justify restructuring their supply chains.
• Much of the broader shift toward imports from Taiwan and Mexico isn't really about decoupling from China at all — it reflects surging demand for AI data center components, which tells a different story than trade policy alone.

Germany's Far Right Is on the Verge of Running Its First State Government — and the Ripple Effects Could Be Huge

csis

• The AfD, Germany's far-right party, is polling at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of September state elections and could win an outright majority — the first time any far-right party has governed a German state since World War II.
• Because every mainstream party refuses to coalition with the AfD, only an absolute majority gets them into power — and quirks of Germany's electoral threshold system make that achievable even with a mid-40s vote share.
• A state-level win would let the AfD reshape education, hiring, and policing in Saxony-Anhalt, normalize far-right governance to skeptical voters nationwide, and build momentum toward a plausible path to federal power by 2029.

In the News

The Fed Is Juggling Five Different Inflation Numbers at Once — and They All Tell a Different Story

the_conversation

• The U.S. inflation rate can simultaneously read 3.7% or 2.2% depending on which measure you use, and the Federal Reserve is actively reconsidering which one should guide its interest rate decisions.
• Each method involves real tradeoffs: headline figures capture what people actually pay, while "trimmed" or "core" measures strip out volatility to better predict future trends — but may exclude the very prices consumers notice most.
• The stakes are high: whichever index the Fed favors will shape not just interest rates but also Social Security adjustments, tax brackets, and wage negotiations for millions of Americans.

Analysis

Scientists Have Engineered Yeast to Produce Two Critical Cancer Drugs, Potentially Solving a Chronic Shortage

science

• Etoposide and teniposide are essential chemotherapy drugs that have long faced supply problems because they depend on a slow-growing, overharvested plant called the mayapple.
• Researchers have now engineered yeast to produce these drugs through biosynthesis, potentially offering a more reliable and scalable manufacturing route.
• If the process can be commercialized, it could stabilize the supply of medicines that are on the WHO's list of essential medicines and used to treat several common cancers.

Also Worth a Look

• The U.S. Military Is Using Latin America as a Testing Ground for Drone Warfare Against Drug Cartels (csis)
• AI Could Bring Enormous Prosperity — But Not for 50 to 100 Years (macroscience)
• The Trump Immigration Crackdown in Minneapolis Cost Workers Over $100 Million in Lost Wages (upjohn)
• The Law That Was Supposed to End Surprise Medical Bills Is Being Gamed Into a $3 Billion Windfall for Providers (niskanen)
• The Studies That Scared Doctors Away from Menopause Hormones Were Flawed — and Women Paid the Price (the_conversation)
• Americans Want the Government to Own AI Stocks. Making That Actually Work Is a Different Story. (the_conversation)
• A New Material Layer Could Make Perovskite Solar Panels Practical at Scale (science)