Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Small Mergers Are Killing Dialysis Patients — Because Antitrust Law Can't See Them

microecon_insights

• US antitrust law requires companies to notify regulators before merging, but exempts deals below a size threshold — meaning thousands of dialysis clinic acquisitions went unreviewed and unchallenged, allowing monopolies to form in local markets.
• Because dialysis prices are set by Medicare, facilities compete on quality rather than price; when mergers eliminated local competition, patient survival rates fell by 2 percentage points and hospitalization rates rose by 4 points.
• A structural model estimates that requiring notification for all dialysis mergers from 1996–2017 would have generated about $2.1 billion in benefits at a cost of just $10 million, suggesting the case for expanding merger reporting requirements is overwhelming.

Six Months Into the U.S.-Iran War, Oil Markets Are Strained but Not Broken — and That May Not Last

csis

• A U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran six months ago triggered Strait of Hormuz disruptions that were expected to push oil above $120 a barrel, but prices have settled around $90, largely because China dramatically slashed its oil imports — drawing down strategic reserves and cutting domestic consumption — which freed up supply for the rest of Asia.
• Experts warn that the buffers keeping prices manageable are eroding fast: strategic reserves are depleted, product markets (especially diesel) are tightening severely, and consumer patience with higher gas prices has limits.
• Three foundational assumptions of global oil markets — an open Strait of Hormuz, OPEC spare capacity, and reliable Gulf producers — are now all in question simultaneously, leaving analysts flying blind about what comes next.

Most Americans Want to Know When Their Doctor Is Using AI — and Most Have No Idea If It's Already Happening

pew

• About 72% of Americans say it's extremely or very important to be told when AI is used in their healthcare, with even higher shares wanting disclosure for AI that directly affects diagnoses or treatment decisions.
• Despite AI becoming increasingly common in hospitals and clinics, 46% of Americans aren't sure whether their provider has ever used it in their care, and only 16% say they know it has.
• Americans feel largely powerless: 53% say they have little to no say over whether AI is used in their care, and nearly two-thirds want more input than they currently have.

In the News

Trump's State Department Plagiarized a Scholar's Book on Cuba — Then Twisted Its Arguments

the_conversation

• The Trump State Department's July 2025 report on Cuba borrowed heavily from a University of Virginia professor's scholarly book on the Tricontinental movement without citation, then distorted its conclusions to support claims that Cuba is backing left-wing terrorism on American soil.
• The Tricontinental was actually a broad, multinational anti-colonial alliance — not a Cuban instrument for attacking the U.S. — and some of its Black American members were themselves critical of Cuba's government.
• The author argues the report exemplifies the false binaries that dominate Cuba debates, and that the movement's real history offers a more nuanced model: opposing U.S. intervention while still holding Cuba accountable.

Analysis

AI Is Gutting the Middle of the Economic Consulting Industry

promarket

• AI tools can now do in hours what junior economists spent days on — running regressions, building damages models, auditing code — threatening entry- and mid-level jobs at firms that built their billing model on charging steep hourly rates for that work.
• Senior testifying experts are largely insulated since AI can't replace expert testimony in court, but the industry is heading toward a smaller, top-heavy structure with a hollowed-out middle tier.
• Efficiency gains may not flow to clients soon, since high-stakes litigation clients don't primarily shop on price — but corporations are increasingly building in-house AI capabilities to bypass outside consultants altogether.

Also Worth a Look

• AI chatbots have talked people into suicide and violence. Now courts must decide who's responsible. (noema)
• A Third of Americans Now Use AI Chatbots for Health Advice, and Most Find Them Helpful (pew)
• The IRA Spurred Green Investment in Struggling Regions — But Didn't Actually Create Jobs There (voxeu)
• U.S. Science Policy Is Pushing Researchers Away — and China Is Ready to Welcome Them (itif)
• A Colorado City Banned Needle Exchanges to Reduce Syringe Litter — It Didn't Work, but People Likely Died (the_conversation)
• The wildfire smoke choking Eastern cities is chemically different from what left the flames — and scientists are still figuring out how dangerous it is (the_conversation)
• The Supreme Court Let Trump's Mail Voting Order Take Effect Without Saying Whether It's Actually Legal (the_conversation)