Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

US Computer Science Enrollment Just Fell for the First Time in 20 Years — Right as AI Learns to Write Code

hoover

• For the first time in roughly two decades, American students are enrolling in fewer computer science courses — down about 4.6% at the average school and 8.1% nationally in autumn 2025, according to a Stanford economist's analysis of 50 million course records.
• The timing coincides with AI tools going mainstream and a cooling entry-level software job market, but the researcher is careful not to blame AI directly, citing several possible causes including weaker math preparation and shifting student interest toward data science.
• The worry is a self-undermining loop: the field most responsible for building AI may be losing the pipeline of people who would build the next generation of it.

The U.S. Is Trying to Keep AI Out of China's Hands — but the Spyware Industry Shows Why That Won't Work

atlantic_council

• American AI companies like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are trying to block Chinese access to frontier AI models, but Chinese firms are routing around restrictions through Singapore-based subsidiaries and training rival models on U.S. outputs — a practice called distillation.
• The same evasion playbook was used by the global spyware industry after export controls were tightened: vendors simply relocated across borders, making country-by-country restrictions nearly useless.
• The article argues the U.S. needs to regulate entire corporate ecosystems rather than named entities, track key personnel across companies, extend investment screening to AI, and pursue multilateral enforcement — or watch its AI controls fail the same way spyware controls did.

The Trump Administration Is Using Real Counterterrorism Tools Against a Threat Its Own Allies Can't Find Evidence Of

the_conversation

• The Trump administration has built an elaborate legal and bureaucratic apparatus to treat antifa as a terrorist organization — but antifa is an ideology with no leadership, no funding structure, and no record of deadly attacks, not an organization that can be designated or dismantled.
• The administration's sequence — executive order, presidential memorandum, State Department foreign terrorist designations, and now an international ministerial — each step launders the last, creating the appearance of a real threat where experts and allies say none exists.
• The real dangers are concrete: counterterrorism powers originally built to fight al-Qaeda could be used to freeze Americans' bank accounts and surveil lawful political activity, while genuine threats get less attention and transatlantic intelligence cooperation frays.

In the News

The Declassified China Election Docs Show Real Interference — But Not the Kind That Should Make You Doubt Your Vote

csis

• Newly released intelligence documents confirm China attempted to influence the 2020 election through data theft, propaganda, and blackmail — but explicitly found no evidence that any votes were changed or election systems successfully manipulated.
• The documents reveal a normal, healthy internal intelligence debate about the scope of China's efforts, not a cover-up — and the recall of a controversial FBI report was standard procedure given its shaky sourcing.
• The bigger danger, the author argues, is that exaggerating or misreading these documents plays directly into adversaries' hands by undermining public trust in elections.

Analysis

Stanford Researchers Scanned 500 Million Words of State Law and Found a Bureaucratic Nightmare — Now They're Using AI to Fix It

stanford_hai

• Stanford researchers used AI to scan every word of state statutes across all 50 states and found that reporting requirements have exploded — in California alone, they grew 400% since 2000, with 30% of ongoing reports never even filed.
• The bloat is staggering in human terms: one Maryland report cost $870,000 and 3,500 staff hours to produce, while the state's total required reading would take 14 weeks — longer than the 13-week legislative session.
• The research is already driving real reform: New York Governor Hochul issued an executive order for a "regulatory reset," San Francisco streamlined a third of its reporting requirements, and the team released a public database of requirements across all 50 states.

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• The US is threatening Canada with tariffs to punish Canada for retaliating against US tariffs (atlantic_council)
• Decoupling from China Makes War More Likely, Not Less (voxeu)
• Europe's push for self-sufficiency will make it poorer and less secure, not more (voxeu)
• Americans Shopping for Cheaper Healthcare in Mexico or Online Often Don't Realize the Quality Signals They Trust Don't Translate (the_conversation)
• Venture Capitalists Keep Complaining About Merger Enforcement — They Have the Data to Actually Test Their Claims (promarket)