Nonrival

Expert analysis from think tanks and academia, on public policy, economics, and technology.
Human experts. AI summaries.

Global Views of China Are at Historic Highs — and China Now Outpolls the U.S. in Most Countries Surveyed

pew

• A Pew survey of 45,000+ people across 37 countries finds that 51% now view China favorably, with opinions rising sharply in Europe and Latin America — driven partly by China's diplomatic outreach but also by a dramatic collapse in U.S. favorability under Trump.
• China is now viewed more positively than the United States in 25 of the 37 countries surveyed, and more people express confidence in Xi Jinping than Donald Trump in 22 countries.
• The divide is stark: wealthier nations (Japan, Australia, Canada) remain skeptical of China, while middle-income countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America increasingly see China as a reliable and constructive partner.

For the First Time, More Countries View China Favorably Than the United States

pew

• A Pew Research survey of 36 countries finds that China is now viewed more favorably than the U.S. in most of them — a historic reversal driven by Trump's second term cratering America's image while China's has quietly improved.
• The shift extends to leadership: more people globally now express confidence in Xi Jinping than in Donald Trump, including in Europe where neither leader is popular but Xi leads by double digits in several countries.
• Even on personal freedoms — long a clear U.S. advantage — the gap is shrinking fast, with majorities in many countries no longer believing the U.S. government respects its own people's liberties.

America's Productivity Boom Looks Like Hard Work, Not AI Breakthroughs

voxeu

• US labor productivity has grown around 2.5% annually since 2023, well above the pre-pandemic trend, and many assumed AI was driving genuine efficiency gains.
• New analysis finds that higher "utilization" — firms squeezing more out of existing workers and equipment rather than becoming more efficient — explains essentially all of the acceleration since 2024.
• AI may have contributed indirectly by stoking demand and uncertainty, but if intensity rather than efficiency is the real driver, the economy's non-inflationary speed limit is lower than the headline numbers suggest.

In the News

The Iran War Is Putting Trillions of Dollars in Gulf-U.S. AI Investment at Risk

csis

• Gulf states had committed roughly $2.5 trillion to U.S.-linked tech investments by early 2026, positioning the region as a major hub for AI infrastructure — but Iranian strikes on datacenters, energy facilities, and cities are now threatening that entire edifice.
• The conflict has forced Gulf governments to ask whether deep alignment with Washington increased their vulnerability rather than reduced it, particularly after U.S. military strikes were launched without meaningful consultation with Gulf partners.
• The most likely outcome isn't a dramatic break with the U.S., but a deliberate recalibration toward greater strategic autonomy — Gulf states want to keep building and investing, just without absorbing the full costs of decisions made in Washington.

Analysis

Private Medicaid Plans Cut Drug Costs but Skimp on Preventive Care, a Rare Natural Experiment Finds

aea

• A rare randomized natural experiment in Louisiana Medicaid found that private managed care plans reduced total spending by 5.6%, mostly by steering patients toward cheaper generic drugs rather than cutting prescriptions.
• The savings came with trade-offs: enrollees in private plans got less preventive care, had more avoidable ER visits, and were three times as likely to switch plans — suggesting real dissatisfaction.
• The clearest win for privatization was pharmacy management, where private insurers used real-time claim denials to redirect patients to cheaper alternatives without detectable health harms.

Also Worth a Look

• How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Turned U.S. Refineries into the World's Fuel Supplier (eia)
• Credit Suisse's Rescue Quietly Undermined a Decade of 'Too Big to Fail' Reforms (voxeu)
• AI Is About to Make Cyberattacks Far More Dangerous — and the U.S. Has Months to Prepare (csis)
• The World Cup Is America's First Real Test of a Counter-Drone Defense System That's Still Being Built (csis)
• In Asia, Views of China Split Sharply Along Wealth Lines — With Poorer Nations Far More Favorable (pew)
• Latin Americans Now View China More Favorably Than the U.S. — a Major Shift from a Decade Ago (pew)
• Orbán is out, but the nationalist worldview he built into stone across Hungary isn't going anywhere (the_conversation)